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Not like it matters so much but Michaela Coel appearing on the cover of Vanity Fair with Charlize Theron, Zendaya, Sacha Baron Cohen, Michael B Jordan, LaKeith Stanfield, Spike Lee, Awkwafina, Maya Rudolph and Dan Levy shows how much buzz and attention she has right now.
I wonder if anyone who is airing now or comes later like Winslet, Kidman, McCarthy, Erivo, Chastain, Mbedu, West and Olsen will just be fighting for the nomination because (and I know it’s the end of February so of course anything can happen unlike on the drama and comedy side) it’s looking like Series and Actress are going to be a two horse race between I May Destroy You and The Queen’s Gambit.
The buzzed about writing of It’s a Sin and the potential buzz for The Underground Railroad might be the closest there is in terms of opposition to Coel in Writing but I am very confident that at this point she’s the by far and away frontrunner and it’s not even close. It’s hard to see her losing when she’s only getting stronger and stronger (as she should!)
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So I’m a FilmIndependent member and I just got the info around what episodes of the television shows nominated for the Spirits are available in the screener room and I thought I might share as it might help with predictions/indicate submissions:
– There is only one episode of <i>I May Destroy You </i>up and it’s the finale “Ego Death”.
– Episode 4 of We Are Who We Are is submitted.
– “Mangrove” is the only <i>Small Axe </i>submission.
– “Perpetratin” is the P-Valley submission.
The rest are shows nominated from the previous Emmy season.
So perhaps HBO only submits Coel/Miller for the finale of I May Destroy You in directing and Amazon only submit Mangrove in Writing for Small Axe?
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Done in alphabetical order –
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The Comey Rule:The Loudest Voice of this year.
The Good Lord Bird:
Out of the shows that have aired in 2020 I would say this is 5th at the Emmys but we need to see how well it does at PGA or DGA. Its WGA nod helps it a lot.
Hawke is a lock. If this misses PGA and DGA I’ll probably say its Series chances are dead though.
<i>I May Destroy You</i>:
Even if Michaela Coel loses SAG I don’t think this show’s chances are completely dead when it comes to the win because Coel has a secret weapon: BAFTA. Yes the sample given from BAFTA in the shortlist and nomination stages are too small to tell us how the British bloc will vote but whatever gets nominated/wins still garners a boost in buzz. Look at how Killing Eve set a record breaking amount of BAFTA nominations and then surged at the Emmys. Or how Jodie Comer won at BAFTA and then won at the Emmys or how Vanessa Kirby won at BAFTA and got in at the Emmys (and probably ended up being top 2). Of course there are times in which this fails to happen like when Josh O’Connor got nominated last year but I am expecting I May Destroy You to be HUGE at BAFTA. I anticipate it will be the third British-American co-production to lead the nominations count. Michaela Coel is BELOVED by the industry over here and this show was a pop cultural phenomenon in the UK (which whilst the industry loved it, it wasn’t that big in the US I believe). It’s winning mini series there and writing and I think it can take Actress too. And if it does that I think it could give the show another boost that it won’t really matter if it is hurt by a SAG loss.
As I’ve said before unless something else comes in to the equation I think it’s a two horse race between it and The Queen’s Gambit this whole season through.
It’s a Sin:
Already achieved its first hurdle in the sense that it already has started off better than <i>Years and Years </i>in the US (which is something consider this is a show with mostly unknowns and Years and Years is a show that starred fairly well known British TV actors and Academy Award winner Emma Thompson) . Unlike <i>Years and Years </i>it seems that HBO is keen to promote it. Whether it’s through the comments of the WarnerMedia CEO yesterday or the fact that they keep getting the actors to campaign for it (Neil Patrick Harris was on Ellen and Trevor Noah promoting it). I think they’re probably hoping for a similar thing that happened to I May Destroy You. That through it being a pop cultural phenomenon in the UK that has a strong word of mouth from well known British celebrities in the US, that they can push for it hard and attract more eyeballs in spite of a poor start in terms of viewership. Like <i>I May Destroy You </i>after its premiere it already seems to have started growing in popularity (it just entered the Rotten Tomatoes index of top 10 most popular shows this week and has grown by 3k votes on IMDB since its US premiere on Thursday). It also seems to have strong audience passion (it has an 8.9 on IMDB, 95% user score on RT (which only opened on Thursday as RT doesn’t allow users to vote on an item until it opens in the US) and 8.7 on Metacritic).
So with the combination of its audience passion and the fact HBO are actually bothering to campaign for it I think the chances of this one really depends on how it ends up in terms of viewership and buzz at the end of March. I stand by the view that a lot of the shows in Emmy consideration going to April/May is only going to help the two airing now (It’s a Sin and Wandavision) and I think with this one the fact it’s already doing better with the industry, audiences and critics in spite of having an unknown cast plays in its favour. If at the end of the month it stagnates at where it’s at then I’ll start to worry about it but for now I think it’s ok.
I think Alexander is in for Actor and Russell T. Davies is in for Writing and I can see a scenario where Alexander wins and Davies is top 3 in his category. I have Keeley Hawes in too because she’s getting a lot of buzz for that finale, delivers one of the most acclaimed performances of the show and is more recognisable than she was when she was competing for Bodyguard. The real dilemma here is Lydia West. She’s the one who is the breakout star of this show, she’s getting just as many standout mentions as Olly Alexander is from people in the industry (Ryan Jamaal Swain, Elton John and Ian McKellan being a few who praised her performance) and she’s the one getting all the job offers. She’s also the one appearing in Emmy magazine this week and one of the ones HBO is pushing the most. If she goes supporting I think she’s in as long as Alexander is in (she may even be more likely than Alexander because I think she’d get more votes than him) and may even win but if she’s lead then she’s the Daisy Edgar-Jones of this year at best.
Whilst it does fit the mould of previous winners in this category and it is essentially <i>I May Destroy You </i>meets Unorthodox, I don’t see it winning limited series. I think it could gets lots of nominations but imo it’s third at best in Series and second at best in Writing.
The Queen’s Gambit:
What is there to say lol?
Small Axe:
A solid third imo but that doesn’t make it safe. I can see a world where it ends up being the <i>A Very English Scandal </i>of this year where it’s the prestige BBC/Amazon co-production that has strong passion, gets lots of nominations, but at the end of the day misses Series because it wasn’t so much of an audience hit. Although A Very English Scandal wasn’t winning critics awards over Oscar buzzed films…
The Undoing:
The problem The Undoing has it that it’s starting off quite low in Series already (it’s 4th imo) and in a year with the potential of so many series that can come in and rise, that doesn’t help. It also doesn’t seem to have strong audience passion (even though it’s quite popular). Grant and Sutherland are locked and it’s going to get lots of craft nominations but I can see a world where it misses Series and Actress due to the competition and Susanne Bier ends up like Jean Marc-Vallee and Lisa Cholodenko have as Emmy winning directors who suffer a slump for their follow up projects when it comes to awards.
I think it can get in but if any show from 2020 that has done “well” so far is on slippery ice when it comes to Series it’s this and <i>The Good Lord Bird</i>.
Wandavision:
Partly why I am particularly high on this one is because I am perhaps having a “don’t underestimate it twice” mentality here but this show is getting a lot of attention and it’s not only because of it being a Marvel show. Olsen and Hahn are getting attention for their performances, the meta-dramatical elements of it and the homage to television sitcoms are also getting this show attention. Everyone is talking about it that to an extent that as someone who is behind on this I have to log off of Twitter every time a new episode drops. It won’t win Series or Actress but if The Mandalorian could get in I don’t see why this can’t when it is much baitier. It feels like the Joker of Marvel in the sense that it seems to be not only getting buzz based on its popularity or Marvel elements (which I assume will be the only reason <i>Falcon and The Winter Soldier </i>will be in the conversation) but also because of some sort of respect towards its style.
It also helps now that Loki has moved to June.
————————————————————–So that’s it. Those are my final thoughts on the shows that have aired so far before the Golden Globes and before the prediction centre for the Emmys open. Everything that hasn’t been mentioned either hasn’t aired yet or I consider it to be dead at the Emmys. Happy awards season guys and may the odds be ever in your favour!
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February 24, 2021 at 11:04 am#1204059086
I’ve been seen countless stuff online about Agatha All Along. WandaVision seems to be a lock.It’s probably a lock for Best Original Music and Lyrics
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PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN in all categories (inc. CAREY MULLIGAN & Emerald Fennell in Screenplay)
THE FATHER in all categories (inc. Best Picture, ANTHONY HOPKINS, Olivia Colman & Adapted Screenplay)
Lo Si (Diane Warren) for Original Song
Chloe Zhao for Director
The thing is Disney are already campaigning for this one hard. They’re not doing the same with Falcon. I don’t see how they’re comparable.
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the way I’ve already watched more limited series for this year then I did the whole of the last emmy year.
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PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN in all categories (inc. CAREY MULLIGAN & Emerald Fennell in Screenplay)
THE FATHER in all categories (inc. Best Picture, ANTHONY HOPKINS, Olivia Colman & Adapted Screenplay)
Lo Si (Diane Warren) for Original Song
Chloe Zhao for Director
the way I’ve already watched more limited series for this year then I did the whole of the last emmy year.
Same.
Last year it was the year where the buzziest shows were dramas. This year it’s limited. The year before was comedy.
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Ray Donovan will return next year as TV Movie: https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/live-feed/ray-donovan-revived-for-showtime-movie
ReplyCopy URLRay Donovan will return next year as TV Movie: https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/live-feed/ray-donovan-revived-for-showtime-movie
I understand that Ray Donovan was cancelled without the show concluding properly but ffs all these shows ending and then coming back as revivals and miniseries.
At least the Academy more or less responds to them like this:
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4 episodes into The Undoing and…this is not it. Bland, boring and an absolute cliche. Nothing new here. I’m really struggling to finish this, so please tell me the last two are actually good. Also, lol to the fact both Hugh and Nicole are being outacted by literally every supporting player.
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