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Emmys 2021 Movie/Limited Predictions (Part 5)

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    gabspss
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    #1204242546

    I think the line up will be:

    1) The Queen’s Gambit (Netflix)
    2) The Underground Railroad (Prime Video)
    3) Mare of Easttown (HBO)
    4) I May Destroy You (HBO)
    5) WandaVision (Disney+)

    Missing the cut:

    6) Small Axe (Prime Video)

    It's about the chaotic editing in Moulin Rouge!

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    wolfali
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    #1204242558

    I still think it’s too early to rule Small Axe out from series. I’m not predicting it in either series or writing but the show reminds me a bit of Killing Eve season 2 in the sense that it under-performs at the guilds due to a lack of visibility. But then with the smaller branches in the TV Academy and a boost of momentum (Amazon/AMC running massive campaigns, record breaking BAFTA nominations, Peabody) it over-performs our expectations.

    Until we see what happens with Halston (which I do think if it’s not panned, will definitely be top 4) then the race is still very much open in series outside I May Destroy You, The Queen’s Gambit, and The Underground Railroad.

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    Victor
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    #1204242597

    Again, i don’t know how Halston could be ahead of Mare of Easttown.
    Mare is an acclaimed hit, actors will eat it up and some craft people as well

    Halston will definitely have some support on the craft side, like costumes and make up, but it seems like more of an Ewan Mcgregor vehicle than anything else.

    I agree it could get nominated, but it would be number 5 in a battle with Wandavision and Small Axe.

    For Your Emmy Consideration:
    Matthew Rhys for "Perry Mason" | Ethan Hawke for "The Good Lord Bird", THE GOOD LORD BIRD in ALL CATEGORIES | Elizabeth Olsen and Kathryn Hahn for "Wandavision" | Tobias Menzies for "The Crown" | MJ Rodriguez for "Pose" | Jane Levy for "Zoey's Extraordinary Playlist"

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    wolfali
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    #1204242612

    Whilst I certainly agree that Winslet will be nominated (I have her in 3rd) and I do have the show in my series (5th place) and supporting actress (6th place) predictions, the TV Academy is going to have to be quite reactionary for an A list led murder mystery to be win competitive for anything.

    As nomination worthy the show is and win worthy Winslet is I feel like the academy made it quite clear last year with the nominations that they care very little for shows that lack novelty (see how they dropped The Handmaid’s Tale and how Mrs. America – even though like Mare it was innovative with its overused format – under-performed). And with HBO seemingly prioritising I May Destroy You over the show in its campaigning and the buzz and acclaim for the show outside of Winslet’s performance feeling soft, Mare just feels like the type of show that people love enough to be nominated but there isn’t much passion for it to win or anything or be a strong unstoppable contender.

    That’s not a detriment to the show’s quality of course but more trends we’ve seen at the Emmys as a result of how the television landscape has shifted over the past 3/4 years.

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    wolfali
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    #1204242641

    So I’ve read the reviews for The Underground Railroad and I wonder if we might end up having a race between Edgerton and McGregor in Actor (provided Halston is not panned)?

    Thoughts?

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    Tyler
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    #1204242652

    That makes sense. Would be interesting too because both feel like industry staples who haven’t really gotten a “moment” for recognition awards wise yet (McGregor has a Globe for Fargo but does anyone really remember that?).

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    Victor
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    #1204242664

    Whilst I certainly agree that Winslet will be nominated (I have her in 3rd) and I do have the show in my series (5th place) and supporting actress (6th place) predictions, the TV Academy is going to have to be quite reactionary for an A list led murder mystery to be win competitive for anything.

    As nomination worthy the show is and win worthy Winslet is I feel like the academy made it quite clear last year with the nominations that they care very little for shows that lack novelty (see how they dropped The Handmaid’s Tale and how Mrs. America – even though like Mare it was innovative with its overused format – under-performed). And with HBO seemingly prioritising I May Destroy You over the show in its campaigning and the buzz and acclaim for the show outside of Winslet’s performance feeling soft, Mare just feels like the type of show that people love enough to be nominated but there isn’t much passion for it to win or anything or be a strong unstoppable contender.

    That’s not a detriment to the show’s quality of course but more trends we’ve seen at the Emmys as a result of how the television landscape has shifted over the past 3/4 years.

    I get where you’re coming from, but it’s not like Halston will be super innovative right?
    And HBO is prioritizing IMDY but Netflix will also prioritize Queen’s Gambit way more, add all that to the fact that Ryan Murphy has been facing some fatigue from the Emmys, i just don’t know how Mare would be behind.

    But i guess we just have to agree to disagree.

    For Your Emmy Consideration:
    Matthew Rhys for "Perry Mason" | Ethan Hawke for "The Good Lord Bird", THE GOOD LORD BIRD in ALL CATEGORIES | Elizabeth Olsen and Kathryn Hahn for "Wandavision" | Tobias Menzies for "The Crown" | MJ Rodriguez for "Pose" | Jane Levy for "Zoey's Extraordinary Playlist"

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    Tyler
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    #1204242666

    Yeah idk what that whole sentiment is. Little Fires Everywhere got in over Normal People last year. Mare of Eastown is exactly what the Academy likes, and past that it’s pretty good, people are watching, and the competition is slim. It’s the fourth lock, unless the finale totally screws it.

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    forwardswill
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    #1204242677

    It all depends on the finale for Mare. If it can stick the landing, Winslet could win the Emmy and the show will become locked in Series. If it doesn’t, then it veers into Undoing territory.

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    wolfali
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    #1204242679

    That makes sense. Would be interesting too because both feel like industry staples who haven’t really gotten a “moment” for recognition awards wise yet (McGregor has a Globe for Fargo but does anyone really remember that?).

    I also think that the trend in Actor hasn’t been that the “newcomer” or “younger performer” wins but rather that the showiest performance comes out on top. Hence why Paul Mescal lost last year for a rather (excellent) subdued performance. Mark Ruffalo, Jharrel Jerome and Riz Ahmed all physically transformed for their roles and the latter two were in socially relevant dramas. Darren Criss was playing a serial killer in a true crime drama and also happened to be in the series sweeper.

    Whilst McGregor and Edgerton don’t seem to have roles as physically demanding as previous winners in this category, they do seem to have a lot more going for them than the other contenders in this category (the baitiness of the role, as you mentioned their lack of industry recognition). Olly Alexander, Bryan Cranston, Hugh Grant, Ethan Hawke, Lin Manuel-Miranda and Leslie Odom-Jr. etc do stand strong chances at a nomination but they each feel like also rans in this race? And Paul Bettany feels at best like he’s in the Sam Rockwell position (veteran thespian with an acclaimed performance going through a career resurgence but they’re overshadowed in buzz by their co-stars and there isn’t much passion for their work to secure a win).

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    hopelesstar
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    #1204242683

    So I’ve read the reviews for The Underground Railroad and I wonder if we might end up having a race between Edgerton and McGregor in Actor (provided Halston is not panned)? Thoughts?

    I can’t imagine the actor playing the slave owner winning, especially  lead, considering Thuso Mbedu likely won’t.

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    boogiezen
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    #1204242687

    Expected reaction with high praises for The Underground Railroad.

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    wolfali
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    #1204242713

    It all depends on the finale for Mare. If it can stick the landing, Winslet could win the Emmy and the show will become locked in Series. If it doesn’t, then it veers into Undoing territory.

    This is really where my predictions on the show are relying on. I do think Winslet is quite safe and probably no lower than 3rd regardless of the outcome of the finale (she’s going to be the first name on the ballot for half of these voters and she’s the single most praised aspect of the show).

    But the finale will quite literally make or break its chances (especially considering it’s airing on May 31st!) across the board. The show’s been great so far (I’m enjoying it more than Sharp Objects and that show was my personal awards runner up!) so I have hope. If the finale wraps up its plot well and receives acclaim then I have no doubt that it’s a lock in series.

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    Victor
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    #1204242720

    1. The Queen’s Gambit
    2. The Underground Railroad
    3. I May Destroy You
    4. Mare of Easttown
    5. Wandavision

    Small Axe, Halston, The Undoing could all be threats.

    For Your Emmy Consideration:
    Matthew Rhys for "Perry Mason" | Ethan Hawke for "The Good Lord Bird", THE GOOD LORD BIRD in ALL CATEGORIES | Elizabeth Olsen and Kathryn Hahn for "Wandavision" | Tobias Menzies for "The Crown" | MJ Rodriguez for "Pose" | Jane Levy for "Zoey's Extraordinary Playlist"

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    wolfali
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    #1204242724

    WandaVision is the interesting one here. On the one hand it has a bunch of tech support to back it up and it will get into directing but on the other it feels like it came and went and like its finale was underwhelming? Maybe it’s because of the pandemic.

    I do have it in my predictions but I wonder if it might face a dramatic snub here or there like in series or in writing (the latter of which is starting to become a very competitive category) due to it being a bit distant in memory (in comparison to newer shows like Mare of Easttown, The Underground Railroad or even The Queen’s Gambit, I May Destroy You and Small Axe because they all have the recency of the winter awards and the BAFTAs (in the case of the latter two).

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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