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Emmys 2021 Movie/Limited Predictions (Part 5)

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    wolfali
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    #1204242724

    WandaVision is the interesting one here. On the one hand it has a bunch of tech support to back it up and it will get into directing but on the other it feels like it came and went and like its finale was underwhelming? Maybe it’s because of the pandemic.

    I do have it in my predictions but I wonder if it might face a dramatic snub here or there like in series or in writing (the latter of which is starting to become a very competitive category) due to it being a bit distant in memory (in comparison to newer shows like Mare of Easttown, The Underground Railroad or even The Queen’s Gambit, I May Destroy You and Small Axe because they all have the recency of the winter awards and the BAFTAs (in the case of the latter two).

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    wolfali
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    #1204242730

    Pls not HBO screening the panned finale of The Undoing for their FYC drive ins.

    https://variety.com/2021/tv/news/hbo-max-emmy-fyc-events-rose-bowl-drive-in-1234964329/

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    Victor
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    #1204242732

    Wandavision will have a lot of tech support, I mean a lot.
    It might end up like Hollywood last year with many tech nods and one or other actor in and snubbed in series.

    But well, it’s Disney and their only priority so, i think I’ll keep it, but i might as well chicken out and predict Small Axe like in the last day.

    For Your Emmy Consideration:
    Matthew Rhys for "Perry Mason" as Leading Actor in a Drama Series
    Ethan Hawke for "The Good Lord Bird" as Leading Actor in a Limited Series, THE GOOD LORD BIRD in ALL CATEGORIES.
    Elizabeth Olsen and Kathryn Hahn for "Wandavision" as Leading and Supporting actress in Limited Series
    Tobias Menzies for "The Crown" as Supporting Actor in a Drama Series.
    MJ Rodriguez for "Pose" as Leading Actress in a Drama Series.

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    Sériextou
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    #1204242741

    I think it’s very difficult for Emmy to give TUR the only acting award for the white man

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    Sériextou
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    #1204242743

    Wandavision will have a lot of tech support, I mean a lot. It might end up like Hollywood last year with many tech nods and one or other actor in and snubbed in series. But well, it’s Disney and their only priority so, i think I’ll keep it, but i might as well chicken out and predict Small Axe like in the last day.

    unfortunately, I think that will happen.

    This show was very innovative in its first episodes, deserved the nominations

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    wolfali
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    #1204242745

    What’s hard to tell is how well Small Axe will do below the line. It got shut out at the guilds but it did well in the craft categories at BAFTA (and will probably win some with the membership voting in those) and some of its craftspeople are Academy Award winners.

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    wolfali
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    #1204242754

    The Underground Railroad starts off with an 86 on Metacritic.

    https://www.metacritic.com/tv/the-underground-railroad/season-1

    This is joint third best score (with I May Destroy You) of all limited series that have aired during this cycle after Small Axe (which has a combined average of 87) and It’s a Sin (which has a 91 score). Hamilton has a score of 90.

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    ReddWhite
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    #1204242781

    Hey ummm…

    Why does The Queen’s Gambit have a 3.2 audience score in Metacritic?

    Emmys FYC: Ruth Wilson (His Dark Materials); Moses Ingram and Harry Melling (The Queen's Gambit)

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    JV
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    #1204242783

    Hey ummm… Why does The Queen’s Gambit hae a 3.2 audience score in Metacritic?

    Probably trolls angry because there’s a girl beating guys in chess.

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    Cobalt Blue
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    #1204242852

    Hey ummm… Why does The Queen’s Gambit have a 3.2 audience score in Metacritic?

    Another example of how easy that number is manipulated.  They should get rid of it.

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    wolfali
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    #1204242984

    With The Underground Railroad’s review embargo lifted, here are my updated predictions.

    Limited Series

    1. The Queen’s Gambit (Netflix)
    2. I May Destroy You (HBO)
    3. The Underground Railroad (Amazon)
    4. Mare of Easttown (HBO)
    5. WandaVision (Disney+)

    6. Small Axe (Amazon)
    7. Halston (Netflix)
    8. It’s a Sin (HBO Max)
    9. The Undoing (HBO)

    I’ve made my thoughts clear about the predicted lineup I have. I don’t think it’s possible to rule out Small Axe until the very last minute purely because the show could either go anywhere from exploding in nominations or just get McQueen and Boyega in. I am predicting it do something in the middle of those two. Halston is slipping into my top 5 if it gets into the 60s on Metacritic.

    Whilst I do think both It’s a Sin and The Undoing have chances at scoring nominations elsewhere here, they both feel dead in series. I have them listed because I’m not ruling them out completely because I do think they can break into other categories and HBO seems to be campaigning both (especially the former) quite hard. The problem It’s a Sin has is that it lacks wide enough visibility (although I guess that didn’t affect A Very English Scandal) and the problem The Undoing has is it seems to lack passion? The passion for It’s a Sin and the visibility for The Undoing is what’s making me have them in 8th and 9th.

    TV Movie

    1. Oslo (HBO)
    2. Sylvie’s Love (Amazon)
    3. Dolly Parton’s Christmas on the Square (Netflix)
    4. Uncle Frank (Amazon)
    5. Doctor Who : Revolution of the Daleks (BBC America)

    6. An American Pickle (HBO Max)
    7. Unpregnant (HBO Max)
    8. Black Narcissus (FX)
    9. The Mahalia Jackson Story (Lifetime)
    10. Clouds (Disney+)

    The most boring category ever lol. Is An American Pickle even being submitted? I guess the production company could self-submit? The top 3 feel like safe bets and Uncle Frank feels likely although I don’t think it’s locked. Doctor Who and Black Narcissus could get in purely on the basis of their name recognition (the former reminds me slightly of Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt in that regard although it will receive zero acting nominations). Clouds made it into WGA over The Undoing so I won’t rule that one out. I’m sceptical about The Mahalia Jackson Story after the snub for The Clark Sisters last year but this field is quite barren. Unpregnant‘s subject matter feels like it gives it an additional rooting factor.

    Oslo is probably winning unless it’s a massive dud or completely buzzless.

    Actor

    1. Ewan McGregor, Halston
    2. Joel Edgerton, The Underground Railroad
    3. Ethan Hawke, The Good Lord Bird
    4. Lin Manuel-Miranda, Hamilton
    5. Paul Bettany, WandaVision

    6. Leslie Odom-Jr., Hamilton
    7. Hugh Grant, The Undoing
    8. Olly Alexander, It’s a Sin
    9. Andrew Scott, Oslo

    Unless something goes dramatically wrong (Halston gets worse reviews than RatchedThe Underground Railroad doesn’t end up being such a big contender) then I think McGregor and Edgerton will be our top 2. The fact that The Walking Dead is the only non CW show to be shut out of the Emmys above the line after receiving a nomination with the American Film Institute (and that was before the expanded Emmy field) tells me The Good Lord Bird is definitely getting nominated for something. Hawke feels like he has enough passion to make it in. Hamilton could obviously over-perform and I am probably under-predicting it but I feel like Lin Manuel-Miranda IS the face of this show in a similar way to how Bob Fosse IS the face of Chicago or Andrew Lloyd-Webber IS the face of The Phantom of the Opera. Leslie Odom-Jr may deliver an excellent performance and one that some would argue is stronger than Miranda, but this is Miranda’s show. He wrote the book and the music and lyrics. He’s ahead and whilst I do think Diggs, Odom-Jr. and maybe even Goldsberry could make it in, I think Miranda is in the “if anyone is the first to get nominated it’s him” situation.

    After that it gets hazier and I can see any of the performers listed from 5th to 9th make it in. I have Bettany for now purely because he’s going to be one of the first names on the ballot and he reminds me of Kerry Washington last year in the sense that he has a lot of individual buzz going for him right now (and also for a likely TV Movie nominee!) Odom-Jr. is creeping though especially with the Oscar buzz he’s coming off of. Hugh Grant could be this year’s Emma Stone (the most acclaimed aspect of a popular and widely seen limited series who misses due to their show not making much of a dent at the winter awards and there not being wide ranging passion). Olly Alexander is a theoretical possibility but that’s the only reason I have him listed. He does seem to be campaigning a lot and his name will probably be first on the ballot but he seems overshadowed in buzz by his co-stars and the show’s writing. Never rule out Andrew Scott for anything post Fleabag (unless it’s maybe BAFTA no.2 hehe).

    Actress

    1. Anya Taylor-Joy, The Queen’s Gambit
    2. Michaela Coel, I May Destroy You
    3. Kate Winslet, Mare of Easttown
    4. Thuso Mbedu, The Underground Railroad
    5. Elizabeth Olsen, WandaVision

    6. Nicole Kidman, The Undoing
    7. Cynthia Erivo, Genius : Aretha
    8. Ruth Wilson, Oslo
    9. Tessa Thompson, Sylvie’s Love

    I have had this lineup since the reviews for Mare of Easttown were lifted and I honestly don’t think I’m going to change it (unless Wilson gets a significant amount of buzz).

    The top three are locked with a capital L. Maybe not in that order but they are going to have the most visibility come voting. Whether that is from Michaela Coel potentially cleaning up at the BAFTAs ten days before voting begins, Anya Taylor-Joy hosting SNL or Kate Winslet’s show finishing airing on May 31st. I feel somewhat confident in Mbedu. She’s the acclaimed breakout of a Barry Jenkins show that is likely top 3 in series. The risky prediction here is Olsen. I still think Hahn can very well end up being the sole nominee for the show. That being said the fact she managed to book that David E. Kelley show so quickly after WandaVision makes me think she has enough passion.

    Nicole Kidman feels like the Reese Witherspoon of this year with the only exception being Witherspoon’s performance was acclaimed. Cynthia Erivo could surprise but it feels like hardly anyone knows Genius has a third season and I do think the backlash from the Franklin family can only hurt. That being said it’s dropping on Disney+ in June so I might have to watch out for her. Ruth Wilson could break in if Oslhas enough buzz (and she does arguably have an “overdue” narrative) but the fact it’s missing from HBO’s drive in screenings is worrisome. Tessa Thompson is only here because she made Critics Choice over Kidman.

    S. Actor

    1. John Boyega, Small Axe
    2. Bill Camp, The Queen’s Gambit
    3. William Jackson Harper, The Underground Railroad
    4. Aaron Pierre, The Underground Railroad
    5. Chase W. Dillon, The Underground Railroad
    6. Shaun Parkes, Small Axe

    7. Paapa Essiedu, I May Destroy You
    8. Donald Sutherland, The Undoing
    9. Thomas Brodie-Sangster, The Queen’s Gambit
    10. Daveed Diggs, Hamilton

    S. Actress

    1. Kathryn Hahn, WandaVision
    2. Weruche Opia, I May Destroy You
    3. Marielle Heller, The Queen’s Gambit
    4. Moses Ingram, The Queen’s Gambit
    5. Jean Smart, Mare of Easttown
    6. Lydia West, It’s a Sin

    7. Krysta Rodriguez, Halston
    8. Keeley Hawes, It’s a Sin
    9. Isla Johnston, The Queen’s Gambit
    10. Rebecca Dayan, Halston

    Writing for a Limited Series, Anthology, Dramatic Special or Movie Made for Television

    1. Michaela Coel, I May Destroy You
    2. Scott Frank, The Queen’s Gambit
    3. Barry Jenkins, The Underground Railroad
    4. Russell T. Davies, It’s a Sin
    5. Laura Donney, WandaVision (“Previously On”)

    6. Steve McQueen and Alistair Siddons, Small Axe (“Mangrove”)
    7. Jac Shaeffer, WandaVision (“Filmed Before a Live Studio Audience”)
    8. Brad Ingelsby, Mare of Easttown
    9. Bobak Esfarjani and Megan McDonnell, WandaVision (“We Interrupt This Program”)
    10. Ian Brennan, Ryan Murphy and Sharr White, Halston (“The Party’s Over”)

    Directing for a Limited Series, Anthology, Dramatic Special or Movie Made for Television

    1. Scott Frank, The Queen’s Gambit
    2. Matt Shakman, WandaVision
    3. Barry Jenkins, The Underground Railroad
    4. Steve McQueen, Small Axe
    5. Michaela Coel and Sam Miller, I May Destroy You (“Ego Death”)
    6. Daniel Minahan, Halston

    7. Craig Zobel, Mare of Easttown
    8. Susanne Bier, The Undoing 
    9. Peter Hoar, It’s a Sin
    10. Albert Hughes, The Good Lord Bird (“Meet the Lord”)

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    wolfali
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    #1204243007

    I just realised if we do get a lineup of Coel, Mbedu, Olsen, Taylor-Joy and Winslet, will it be one of the youngest lineups we’ve ever had in this category?

    The average age of last year’s category was 43 and a half. With a lineup of the aforementioned performers the average age will be 33.

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    jjjmoss1
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    #1204243009

    I also think when wandavision premiered it felt a little fresher b/c we hadn’t had a MCU Event in over a year.

    But now since then the falcon show started and ended, and they’re already starting the promo blitz for the 4 (!) films out in the second half of the year. Making it feel like just another cog in the endless franchise machine.

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    Melvinezq
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    #1204243078

    Am I the only one who doesn’t think Hahn is happening? Like…at all? Also, I still don’t buy her getting in, if Olsen gets snubbed.

    Yeah, but I think she’s on the brink of being snubbed. Right now I have Krysta Rodriguez from Netflix’ Halston because Liza Minelli is a legend that’s still alive and hasn’t been forgotten (unlike Gwen Verdon). If she nails that performance, it’s not only Ewan McGregor that will get any buzz. Plus, the category is so empty. The unknown name will be benefitted from that.

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    Madson Melo
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    #1204243100

    Do you guys really think that Winslet can beat Anya?

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