May 5, 2021 at 12:40 am #1204243137
Do you guys really think that Winslet can beat Anya?
In these categories after a certain point the Emmys tend to become about more than the quality of performance. I may personally think Winslet and Coel are more deserving of the win, but once a programme becomes so beloved and popular as The Queen’s Gambit and its star has that much individual buzz, it’s almost impossible to beat. It reminds me of how whilst they were strong competitors, it was almost impossible for either Claire Foy or Evan Rachel Wood to overcome Elisabeth Moss. Or how hard it was for either Mrs. America or Unorthodox to overcome Watchmen (and that show didn’t sweep the winter awards!) in Actress and Series. Or how Issa Rae couldn’t overcome Catherine O’Hara.
People keep bringing up Sandra Oh and Patricia Arquette as examples (the only two performers to sweep each of the CCA, SAG and Globe but fall short at the Emmys since 2016) but neither were as strong as Taylor-Joy is. Killing Eve failed to make a dent at the guilds outside of Oh and she swept for a completely different season of the show. Whilst Arquette swept, her show was neither as popular or strong as The Queen’s Gambit (did Escape at Dannemora even win a single award over Versace?) and Emmy voters had the opportunity to award her in the supporting actress category for The Act and finally give Williams her overdue awards dues with a win for one of the most acclaimed performances of the year (like Ruffalo last year).
Kate Winslet has an excellent win worthy performance and she will undoubtedly be nominated both at the Emmys and TCA but what push is there for her to win? Narratives aren’t much of a harbinger in some cases at the Emmys (i.e. Comer beating Oh) but they have played a role in the past when it has come to securing performers wins. Regina King, Nicole Kidman, Sarah Paulson and Frances McDormand all won on merit but they each also were the faces of the series sweeper. Each of these women gave some of if not THE most celebrated performance of the year (which Anya Taylor-Joy has done this year). Regina King became the first black actress to win that category twice when she won for Watchmen. Sarah Paulson had a strong overdue narrative. Frances McDormand and Nicole Kidman both had career resurgences with Olive Kitteridge and Big Little Lies.
The template Winslet needs is Kidman but Kidman’s show also won Series and took home the two supporting categories and directing. The Queen’s Gambit is certainly ahead of Mare of Easttown in the series category (the fact that the only show to have completed a similar sweep to it is Breaking Bad season 5B is quite telling to its strength) and I’d argue I May Destroy You and maybe The Underground Railroad are as well. The former feels like it strikes up a lot of passion because of its acclaimed central performance from a rising star and its socially relevant themes (HBO also seem to be campaigning it more than their other limited series) and the latter is from a beloved film director, is likelier to be more of an across the board player than Mare and has some of the best reviews of *any* limited series this year. That’s not to say that based on the first three episodes that Mare isn’t worthy of the series prize but more that it’s neither a massive global audience or critical phenomenon like the likes of Big Little Lies, Chernobyl and The People Vs OJ Simpson nor does it strike up as much passion as something like Olive Kitteridge.
Anyway to cut a long story short I have said several times as of late that the finale of Mare will make or break its chances due to its air date so if it ends up being incredibly acclaimed and buzzy I might reconsider my prediction. But right now I think Winslet is in a similar position to Cate Blanchett and Amy Adams – she’s third. Excellent win worthy performances but the lack of passion for their shows (in spite of decent reviews) and the fact they’re up against performers with stronger narratives who either have one of (if not the) most beloved performances of the year (Williams/King/Taylor-Joy) or are a critical darling in a show that elicits lots of passion in the industry (Arquette/Haas/Coel), ultimately hurts their chances of winning.
FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")May 5, 2021 at 2:00 am #1204243176
Hard agree with whatever wolfali wrote. Arquette did lose to Williams after her winter sweep but people forget that Fosse/Verdon was also much stronger than Escape at Dannemora.
A series winner isn’t gonna lose for its winter-awards-sweeping lead. Under the current system, only Game of Thrones S6 and Chernobyl didn’t have their lead/strongest actors win (2/15) and both of those losses were easily understandable.
Predicting TQG without Anya is like predicting Fleabag without PWB or Schitt’s Creek without O’Hara. They are their shows.May 5, 2021 at 2:54 am #1204243191
What are the chances of McQueen winning Best Directing and I May Destroy You upseting for Series, Actress and maybe Writing?May 5, 2021 at 3:18 am #1204243193
I also think when wandavision premiered it felt a little fresher b/c we hadn’t had a MCU Event in over a year.
But now since then the falcon show started and ended, and they’re already starting the promo blitz for the 4 (!) films out in the second half of the year. Making it feel like just another cog in the endless franchise machine.
This is what I thought since its launch. At the end of the day it’s just another marvel programMay 5, 2021 at 3:48 am #1204243210
What are the chances of McQueen winning Best Directing and I May Destroy You upseting for Series, Actress and maybe Writing?
Individual passion picks are almost non existant in the directing in a limited series due to how much the category corresponds with series when it comes to the win (only The Night Manager and Unorthodox have won here in recent times and that’s when the series winners of those respective years were nominated thrice). So McQueen’s chances at a win are slim. If The Queen’s Gambit wins series then Scott Frank is likely taking directing like how Johan Renck won for Chernobyl in spite of Ava DuVernay having received so much praise for When They See Us.
I May Destroy You is not winning series or actress after losing at PGA, SAG and Critics Choice to The Queen’s Gambit. However its guild performance in nominations and the passion it seems to have with both the industry and the Brits suggests to me that it’s 3rd at worst in series. It reminds me of Unorthodox last year.
It’s not a given but the one upset out of those you’re enquiring that I think is a realistic possibility is I May Destroy You winning writing. Whether it’s with Black Mirror or Sherlock or Succession, passion picks tend to be more common with the writers branch under the plurality voting system. The crux of I May Destroy You’s passion and acclaim is Coel’s writing whilst The Queen’s Gambit’s passion appears to be more focused on the show’s performances and direction (a bit like Big Little Lies and Versace). So a Black Mirror like win is plausible for Coel. I do think unless The Underground Railroad ends up becoming a force to be reckoned with that she’s no lower than 2nd in that category.
FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")May 5, 2021 at 4:51 am #1204243251
Not for this year and I doubt she’ll receive a nomination for it but Claire Foy is really looking like she’s going to soar with individual buzz next year between this, the second season of A Very English Scandal and The Electrical Life of Louis Wain.
FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")May 5, 2021 at 5:06 am #1204243261
A hint at what’s to come?May 5, 2021 at 5:53 am #1204243302
A hint at what’s to come? https://twitter.com/kurtsoller/status/1389394487605178369
Even Hollywood scored 4 nominations. The race is between Hawke and McGregor. Ethan Hawke gave one of the best performances in any medium.May 5, 2021 at 5:57 am #1204243304
As long as Halston doesn’t receive a Ratched like reception, I think McGregor is probably walking away with the Emmy.
I won’t rule out Edgerton if The Underground Railroad does become a huge contender but aside from McGregor everyone else in this race feels like an also ran. Who else is there? Hawke is certainly getting nominated but hardly anyone saw The Good Lord Bird and he lost all the winter awards. Bettany and Alexander are overshadowed by their co-stars. Nominations for Manuel-Miranda, Grant and Odom-Jr. probably won’t be anything other than that. Cranston is in a panned show and both him and Daniels are probably lower priorities for Showtime. Hardly anyone has uttered a single word about The Comey Rule in months.May 5, 2021 at 6:37 am #1204243348
Is Monica Rambeau an contender?May 5, 2021 at 8:01 am #1204243428
The devil works hard but Anya’s publicist works harder
Emmys FYC: Alan Tudyk in “Resident Alien”, Billie Piper in “I Hate Suzie”, Ego Nwodim in “Saturday Night Live”, Kaley Cuoco in “Harley Quinn”
“Dickinson”, “P-Valley”, “Pose” & “Superstore” in all categories
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