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Emmys 2021 Movie/Limited Predictions (Part 5)

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    puck05
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    #1204244795

    I just know that this thread won’t be the same when The Underground Railroad debuts.

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    wolfali
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    #1204244817

    I think WandaVision will be here. If not in Series, then Matt Shakman will get a Directing nomination.

    WandaVision reminds me somewhat of Little Fires Everywhere in the sense that both are massive crowd pleasing hits that attract attention for the novelties in their premises (WandaVision being an homage to television’s past, a story about grief and a Marvel show at the same time, Little Fires Everywhere being an A list led mystery but with topical social commentary around institutional racism in America and white privilege). I also see Olsen in a similar situation to Washington because whilst Olsen might not be considered as overdue as Washington, she has been working in the industry for a long time now (as you mentioned) and this is one of her most acclaimed performances.

    I don’t think it’s a lock in actress or series but it wouldn’t surprise me if it just got series, actress and directing nominations (I have it for those as well as Writing, Actor and S. Actress).

    The last show to get a DGA nomination and get completely shut out at the Emmys was Maniac

    I think The Undoing is more comparable to Maniac (high profile and somewhat divisive limited series with a respectable pedigree that gets in at SAG, PGA and DGA but gets shut out at the Emmys due to a lack of passion and its buzz being somewhat non existent after it finishes airing).

    I’m starting to feel shaky on Paul Bettany. Kathryn Hahn is weird, because her best parts are the comedic ones and this category isn’t called Comedy Series.

    Honestly I’ve just defaulted to Bettany. I feel happy predicting a lineup of McGregor, Edgerton, Hawke and Manuel-Miranda (in that order) but it’s the 5th slot that’s bugging me. I’ve gone with Bettany because he seems to have a lot of visibility due to not only WandaVision but also Uncle Frank and is going through a mini career resurgence. But it’s starting to feel like WandaVision was such a long time ago. It’s hard to tell where Odom is in this race because on the one hand he does have potential leftover goodwill from his Oscar buzz and he could be checked off along with Manuel-Miranda but his Globe snub tells me he is definitely “snubbable”. Olly Alexander feels a bit like Morgan Spector last year (the performer from his show with the easiest field but he has less buzz than his female co-stars and the show’s writing). Bryan Cranston and Jeff Daniels feel like also rans and Rock and Law aren’t even top 10. It’s very tempting for me to slot Hugh Grant back in but he feels so much like Emma Stone and Merritt Wever (the most acclaimed part of a show that doesn’t really have any win buzz and falls as buzzier and more recent shows air).

    I do still have Kathryn Hahn in for a nomination (her and Weruche Opia feel like the closest things to safe bets for me to make in that category right now lol) but the more time passes, the more it feels like her buzz is cooling off and the narrative around WandaVision’s awards buzz is refocusing on Olsen? I do think she can still win but like with Bettany’s nomination, the passage of time is making me sceptical. The problem I have though is who else can win? Opia is not winning when Coel isn’t winning (Actress), if Jean Smart couldn’t win last year for Watchmen then I doubt Heller will and Ingram is hardly in the show, Smart has too small a role and whilst I do think Hawes and West have win potential, they might not even be nominated. Lily Rabe feels like another Vera Farmiga for When They See Us at best (she’s only in 2 out of 10 episodes!).

    I’ve taken a risky jump and have started to predict Krysta Rodriguez to win for Halston. I could fall flat on my face but Netflix seem to be pushing her hard in promotion and the role of Liza Minelli is essentially uber bait. The actors branch also seem to have a thing for actors from Ryan Murphy shows. The only problem I have is whether Halston will be a big enough contender for both her and McGregor (who I think as long as the show isn’t another Ratched in reception is probably walking away with the lead Emmy) to win?

    I’m starting to think it could pull a Normal People and get its main star + Writing and Directing.

    I can see Small Axe do this (although I don’t have it currently for Writing).

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    boss
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    #1204244836

    I now think WandaVision may miss series. The Queen’s Gambit, I May Destroy You and The Underground Railroad are locked, and I think Small Axe is safe too. I mean imagine it getting snubbed, there would be a huge backlash; not to mention that Amazon is actually campaigning it. The last spot may go to Mare of Easttown, it is a genre that this category hosted too much and loves and everyone seems to like this show.

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    wolfali
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    #1204244849

    I actually now think WandaVision may miss series. The Queen’s Gambit, I May Destroy You and The Underground Railroad are locked, and I think Small Axe is safe too. I mean imagine it getting snubbed, there would be a huge backlash; not to mention that Amazon is actually campaigning it. The last spot may go to Mare of Easttown, it is a genre that this category hosted too much and loves and everyone seems to like this show.

    I think unless Halston surprises that the shows you listed are locked and the last two slots are between Mare of EasttownSmall Axe and WandaVision.

    If Small Axe wins the Mini Series BAFTA then I think it’s in. It reminds me a bit of Killing Eve (the Globes gravitate towards it but it doesn’t really do that well at the guilds but then it is helped in visibility later in the season with the headlines of record breaking BAFTA nominations and with groups such as Peabody recognising it).

    It also has a strong rooting factor due to its historic and cultural importance which both Mare and to an extent WandaVision lack.

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    methaddiction
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    #1204244853

    I haven’t seen anyone outside of these forums talk about Small Axe 💀

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    boss
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    #1204244857

    I think unless Halston surprises that the shows you listed are locked and the last two slots are between Mare of Easttown, Small Axe and WandaVision. If Small Axe wins the Mini Series BAFTA then I think it’s in. It reminds me a bit of Killing Eve (the Globes gravitate towards it but it doesn’t really do that well at the guilds but then it is helped in visibility later in the season with the headlines of record breaking BAFTA nominations and with groups such as Peabody recognising it). It also has a strong rooting factor due to its historic and cultural importance.

    Think of Television Academy’s reputation post-nominations if they nominate WandaVision over Small Axe. The former was safe when we assumed Mare of Easttown would be The Undoing at its best.

    I haven’t seen anyone outside of these forums talk about Small Axe 💀

    The show that literally no one talked outside of these forums was Mrs. America last year which is why it has performed so badly afterwards. Small Axe has enough buzz with its visible nominations like Golden Globes and BAFTA.

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    puck05
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    #1204244886

    Small Axe’s Emmy performance is the biggest mystery of this season. I don’t want to imagine what will happen if Halston is also acclaimed.

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    wolfali
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    #1204244894

    I haven’t seen anyone outside of these forums talk about Small Axe 💀

    Yes but how many people talked about Mrs. America last year? Or Fosse/Verdon? Or A Very English Scandal?

    I feel like shows such as the aforementioned three, Small Axe or even It’s a Sin and The Good Lord Bird are shows that aren’t audience hits but because of the pedigree, critical buzz and subject matter are shows that are disproportionately popular with the industry.

    I mean case in point Small Axe flopped in ratings in the UK but it got a record breaking amount of BAFTA nominations. Someone like Steve McQueen’s work will have visibility on name and industry pedigree alone (even if only the director branch are watching) and what helps Small Axe in particular is it offers a novelty in its exploration of the Black British experience so its cultural importance gives it a strong rooting factor.

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    wolfali
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    #1204244896

    Small Axe’s Emmy performance is the biggest mystery of this season. I don’t want to imagine what will happen if Halston is also acclaimed.

    All I know is that TCA is going to be a bloodbath lol.

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    boss
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    #1204244899

    Yes but how many people talked about Mrs. America last year? Or Fosse/Verdon? Or A Very English Scandal?

    For all my friends, if the show I recommend is not on Netflix it does not exist for them. (I don’t live in US).

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    Riley Chow
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    #1204244925

    The show that literally no one talked outside of these forums was Mrs. America last year which is why it has performed so badly afterwards.

    The way that Sarah Paulson was paid dust for the single-episode performance of the year in an episode of the year.

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    Victor
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    #1204244954

    Think of Television Academy’s reputation post-nominations if they nominate WandaVision over Small Axe. The former was safe when we assumed Mare of Easttown would be The Undoing at its best

    They would be just fine, specially when other two black lead stories are locked (IMDY and TUR).

    For Your Emmy Consideration:
    Matthew Rhys for "Perry Mason" | Ethan Hawke for "The Good Lord Bird", THE GOOD LORD BIRD in ALL CATEGORIES | Elizabeth Olsen and Kathryn Hahn for "Wandavision" | Tobias Menzies for "The Crown" | MJ Rodriguez for "Pose" | Jane Levy for "Zoey's Extraordinary Playlist"

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    wolfali
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    #1204244974

    Netflix jinxing themselves by calling The Queen’s Gambit unbeatable:

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    tsc
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    #1204244986

    Variety predictions:

    Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series:

    “I May Destroy You” (HBO)
    “The Queen’s Gambit” (Netflix)
    “Small Axe” (Amazon Prime Video)
    “The Underground Railroad” (Amazon Prime Video)
    “WandaVision” (Disney Plus)

    Outstanding Television Movie:

    “An American Pickle” (HBO Max)
    “Oslo” (HBO)
    “Robin Roberts Presents: Mahalia” (Lifetime)
    “Sylvie’s Love” (Amazon Prime Video)
    “Uncle Frank” (Amazon Prime Video)

    Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited Series or Movie:

    Jeff Daniels “The Comey Rule” (Showtime)
    Joel Edgerton “The Underground Railroad” (Amazon Prime Video)
    Hugh Grant “The Undoing” (HBO)
    Ethan Hawke “The Good Lord Bird” (Showtime)
    Lin-Manuel Miranda “Hamilton” (Disney Plus)

    Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited Series or Movie:

    Cynthia Erivo “Genius: Aretha” (National Geographic)
    Thuso Mbedu “The Underground Railroad” (Amazon Prime Video)
    Elizabeth Olsen “WandaVision” (Disney Plus)
    Anya Taylor-Joy “The Queen’s Gambit” (Netflix)
    Kate Winslet “Mare of Easttown” (HBO)

    Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or Movie:

    John Boyega “Small Axe” (Amazon Prime Video)
    Bill Camp “The Queen’s Gambit” (Netflix)
    Brendan Gleeson “The Comey Rule” (Showtime)
    William Jackson Harper “The Underground Railroad” (Amazon Prime Video)
    Shaun Parkes “Small Axe” (Amazon Prime Video)
    Donald Sutherland “The Undoing” (HBO)

    Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited Series or Movie:

    Jessie Buckley “Fargo” (FX)
    Renée Elise Goldsberry “Hamilton”
    Kathryn Hahn “WandaVision” (Disney Plus)
    Marielle Heller “The Queen’s Gambit” (Netflix)
    Phillipa Soo “Hamilton” (Disney Plus)
    Letitia Wright “Small Axe” (Amazon Prime Video)

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    wolfali
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    #1204244996

    Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited Series or Movie: Cynthia Erivo “Genius: Aretha” (National Geographic) Thuso Mbedu “The Underground Railroad” (Amazon Prime Video) Elizabeth Olsen “WandaVision” (Disney Plus) Anya Taylor-Joy “The Queen’s Gambit” (Netflix) Kate Winslet “Mare of Easttown” (HBO)

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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