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Emmys 2021 Movie/Limited Predictions (Part 6)

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    wolfali
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    #1204256806

    I do understand what JV is trying to say about Halston.

    Just to make it clear I’m not predicting it in series. Nor do I plan to (I have it lingering around 7th/8th in my predictions). But I don’t think we should solely base its chances on how well Hollywood did last year. Hollywood was a revisionist dramedy that was thematically and tonally polarising, is rated rotten on Rotten Tomatoes and Jim Parsons was the only performer who had a “shot” at winning. On the contrary Ewan McGregor is arguably the frontrunner for Halston, it has a 67% rating on Rotten Tomatoes and there seems to be more audience passion for it than there was for Hollywood at this stage. It hasn’t received raves but the criticism in some of these reviews seems to be pointed towards the storytelling being too surface level rather than anything else. It obviously isn’t as strong a contender as Fosse/Verdon nor has it received critical acclaim like it did (although it already seems to have received more audience attention lmao) but it’s more comparable tonally towards it than Hollywood. Both Fosse/Verdon and Halston are shows that have a lot of industry appeal not solely because of their pedigree or subject matter or production values (all of which do help their cases) but because of their employment of the tortured genius trope.

    A show about the rise and fall of a creative who battles rejection (the fifth episode of the show is literally titled “Critics”) and addiction is going to resonate more with an industry creative who has been through those experiences in than a critic. Regardless of critical raves or critical pans.

    But anyway I’m not saying Halston will get into series nor am I saying it should, more that I don’t think it can be discounted completely (even though I don’t really think it will).

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    estrelas
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    #1204256815

    Unlike Ruffalo, McGregor actually lost for his acclaimed ‘dual role’ despite wins at the Globes and Critics Choice with a much bigger show than Ruffalo’s was (Fargo season 3). McGregor doesn’t have an opponent as strong as Ahmed was this time, but it arguably speaks to a lack of urgency to award him in the industry.

    Didn’t McGregor win both GG and CC after losing the Emmy? Also, The Night Of performed quite well overall (especially with actors) while Fargo slightly underperformed.

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    Victor
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    #1204256822

    what

    Yeah i was also like that, thought it was a bug or something
    Had to Google it to be sure.

    For Your Emmy Consideration:
    Matthew Rhys for "Perry Mason" | Ethan Hawke for "The Good Lord Bird", THE GOOD LORD BIRD in ALL CATEGORIES | Elizabeth Olsen and Kathryn Hahn for "Wandavision" | Tobias Menzies for "The Crown" | MJ Rodriguez for "Pose" | Jane Levy for "Zoey's Extraordinary Playlist"

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    mafro987
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    #1204256845

    Didn’t McGregor win both GG and CC after losing the Emmy? Also, The Night Of performed quite well overall (especially with actors) while Fargo slightly underperformed.

    That’s the point – even though Ahmed had lost at all of the winter awards prior to Fargo even airing, he was still able to win over McGregor even though the latter had an acclaimed dual role and a fresher show. It’s not exactly a ringing endorsement of McGregor’s industry appeal. He then won with the non-industry groups during the following winter, but was still snubbed at SAG.

    Of course, Fargo has notoriously underperformed with industry acting wins while Murphy shows tend to do well, but there currently isn’t much to indicate McGregor is a big frontrunner. That isn’t to say he can’t emerge as the frontrunner in the coming weeks if Halston becomes an audience hit.

    For Your Consideration:

    Best International Feature: Instinct (The Netherlands)
    Best Actress: Carice van Houten (Instinct)

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    wolfali
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    #1204256860

    If Ewan McGregor wins it’s not going to be because he is considered overdue for industry recognition like Ruffalo because that’s not why Ruffalo won.

    Until Ruffalo’s win many of us (myself included) assumed that the trend in this category was that the younger actor would win with a performance that some would consider shocking or novel (Ahmed, Criss, Jerome) but arguably the trend all along under the current voting system has been that the baitiest performance has won in this category.

    Courtney B. Vance was in the undeniable series sweeper and he was playing the baity role of Johnnie Cochran. Riz Ahmed was in a bonafide hit that had relevancy to the socio-political climate, he physically transformed for the role and he also had the narrative of being the first Asian male to win an acting Emmy. His show was also the series runner up. Darren Criss was also in the undeniable series sweeper and he was playing a notorious serial killer — a role that was against type for the Glee actor. Jharrel Jerome also physically transformed for his role, he was a part of both the younger Central Park 5 ensemble and the older one, he was in a show that was top 3 in series and each of his competitors were weak in some form or another (the acting in Chernobyl wasn’t so much of a showcase, Sam Rockwell was overshadowed in buzz and acclaim by his co-star and the same could be said for Hugh Grant and Benicio del Toro, both of whom also were winter awards also rans). Mark Ruffalo was playing dual roles, both of which he physically transformed for and he was also in a wide open category where the only nominee from a series contender was one who (whilst excellent) was arguably supporting and overshadowed by his co-stars.

    If McGregor wins it will be because he is playing the baity role of Halston, a famous fashion designer, in a show that heavily complies by the tortured genius arc, in a wide open field (there is an argument to be made that just like Grant for AVES and Del Toro for Dannemora that Hawke and Grant are also rans at this point after losing at the winter awards with an arguably just as weak field, Bettany and Alexander are over-shadowed and Edgerton has a polarising character). Sure some may consider him overdue for recognition but it would factor into a potential win for him just like it did with Vance and Ruffalo. It would be a side note.

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    Melvinezq
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    #1204256903

    Could the fact what’s going on in the Middle East is currently leading the headlines help Oslo in any way here due to its subject matter?

    Yes, it could! I think HBO will also campaign for it (rigorously). The presentation seems like it’s going to be the main push for TV movie category. Qualitatively, I’m not so sure how it will be because the director is not a big name in TV although he’s well-known in theatre comunity, but the fact that Steven Spielberg is executive producing this makes me think that at some point, the project came to him, but not made him interested enough. It kind of reminds me about The Trial of Chicago 7.

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    Victor
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    #1204256933

    Lily Rabe should get her Emmy nod.
    I think it’s one of her best works ever.

    For Your Emmy Consideration:
    Matthew Rhys for "Perry Mason" | Ethan Hawke for "The Good Lord Bird", THE GOOD LORD BIRD in ALL CATEGORIES | Elizabeth Olsen and Kathryn Hahn for "Wandavision" | Tobias Menzies for "The Crown" | MJ Rodriguez for "Pose" | Jane Levy for "Zoey's Extraordinary Playlist"

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    wolfali
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    #1204257138

    I think HBO will also campaign for it (rigorously)

    Will they though? I haven’t seen them do anything for it other than promote its existence through its trailers. For example it’s not getting an FYC drive in event which I May Destroy YouIt’s a SinMare of Easttown and The Undoing all are.

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    marsha_brightly
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    #1204257142

    WOW…TUR already a mess by Audience point of view…so sad wanted to watch  it..dont have bucks on amazon….

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    wolfali
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    #1204257144

    According to FlixPatrol, Halston place at no.10 worldwide of all series on its debut on Netflix. The Underground Railroad failed to crack the ranking.

    https://flixpatrol.com/

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    Dee Jones
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    #1204257148

    According to FlixPatrol, Halston place at no.10 worldwide of all series on its debut on Netflix. The Underground Railroad failed to crack the ranking. https://flixpatrol.com/

    Neither did Invincble or Them or Without Remorse or Coming 2 America. Using flixpatrol to track Prime Video exclusive shows and movies is pointless because they only track the ones you can buy or rent

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    wolfali
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    #1204257153

    Neither did Invincble or Them or Without Remorse or Coming 2 America. Using flixpatrol to track Prime Video exclusive shows and movies is pointless because they only track the ones you can buy or rent

    Oh I didn’t know that. Thanks for informing me!

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    Sean C
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    #1204257157

    Trying to track how many people are actually watching something in the streaming era is a constant pain.

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    wolfali
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    #1204257161

    FlixPatrol have actually updated their findings since I last posted. Halston debuted in 7th worldwide and has now risen to 4th in the US.

    https://flixpatrol.com/title/halston/

    Trying to track how many people are actually watching something in the streaming era is a constant pain.

    FlixPatrol does seem to provide some form of accuracy when it comes to Netflix and HBO but I guess that’s it lol. It’s very difficult with the amount of sites that amalgamate the PVOD and SVOD function.

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    braydenfitzsimmons
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    #1204257174

    Trying to track how many people are actually watching something in the streaming era is a constant pain.

    This. At least we knew Empire had the numbers to back it up being the cultural phenomenon that it was.

    Emmys FYC | Alan Tudyk in “Resident Alien” | Billie Piper in “I Hate Suzie” | Ego Nwodim in “Saturday Night Live” | Kaley Cuoco in “Harley Quinn” | “Dickinson” | “P-Valley” | “Pose” | “Superstore”

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