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Emmys 2021 Movie/Limited Predictions (Part 6)

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    wolfali
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    #1204247808

    is there anyone here who watched The Underground Railroad yet????im curious about this….is this series gonna kick out small exes easily ???

    It’s not out yet (next Friday!)

    Although I guess Riley might have seen it through a screener.

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    puck05
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    #1204247813

    The Underground’s Railroad current MC score is 89. I feel like this year we will witness another Moonlight vs La La Land.

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    Luca
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    #1204247815

    The industry is going to be all over The Underground Railroad. Barry Jenkins is very respected, and some have even called this show his crowing achievement (thus far). I could see Thuso Mbedu actually winning actress.

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    wolfali
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    #1204247842

    Sheila Atim, Chase W. Dillon and Joel Edgerton (in lead) are in the predictions centre now!

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    Gabarnes43
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    #1204247844

    I don’t think enough people will watch The Underground Railroad for it to win series

    EMMY FYC

    The Crown in all categories (inc. Olivia Colman & Gillian Anderson)

    I May Destroy You, It’s a Sin, Stateless & The Queens Gambit

    Kate Winslet, Keeley Hawes, Shaun Parkes, Marielle Heller, Michaela Coel

    Ted Lasso & The Flight Attendant in all categories.

    Girls5Eva

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    Luca
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    #1204247848

    I don’t think enough people will watch The Underground Railroad for it to win series

    ??

    So you’re telling me that by August, when they start voting for the winners, voters will not have watched this? The show is likely gonna get huge buzz once it’s released, and I have no doubt that it’ll become priority viewing for most voters.

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    Melvinezq
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    #1204247859

    I’m dying to predict Sheila Atim, but Lily Rabe has a better position since she’s more well-known due to her works in the past. Somehow I think both will get in if Prime successfully build and maintain the buzz up voting days.

    One question! Will Hamilton be able to maintain the buzz? Is name checking strong enough to get at least one of the leads nominated? I’m so skeptical about this particular show actually.

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    Jays
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    #1204247899

    I honestly preferred Martin Freeman over Billy on Fargo S1. Totally unpopular opinion I know. But his scene killing his wife is top notch, i can’t. He won that year in supporting so is cool tho.

    I didn’t know preferring Freeman was an unpopular opinion, but I’m in the same boat as you. He was incredible – I always found Thornton one note but that’s more because of the nature of his character.

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    wolfali
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    #1204247907

    ?? So you’re telling me that by August, when they start voting for the winners, voters will not have watched this? The show is likely gonna get huge buzz once it’s released, and I have no doubt that it’ll become priority viewing for most voters.

    Whilst I may not fully agree with what Gabarnes said, I understand what they mean.

    The Underground Railroad WILL get Emmy nominations. Its pedigree is too strong and subject matter too baity for at least somEmmy voters not to watch it. Amazon also are going to be putting a lot of dimes into the campaign for this one.

    But at the same time it faces two very significant hurdles when it comes to the win. The first being that whilst its subject matter is topical, it is also a very dark subject matter. It also is an abolitionist drama, one we’ve seen depicted on screen in a lot of high profile productions in recent years (it’s even a focus point in another high profile show competing in the limited series field this year!) In a year like this where we’ve seen viewers, the industry and audiences gravitate towards “lighter” material, that can be a significant detriment to The Underground Railroad‘s awards chances as it can hurt its chances of voters actually finishing the show. And that can subsequently hurt its chances of winning and of performers who appear later in the show’s chances of getting nominated. Case in point last year, whilst it wasn’t a particularly dark show, Mrs. America under-performed in spite of getting multiple nominations and having a strong pedigree due to it depicting a subject matter that the industry was fatigued of seeing.

    The other hurdle The Underground Railroad faces is The Queen’s Gambit. I don’t think The Queen’s Gambit is “unbeatable” per se but what’s often glanced over is how popular it is. This show is the only one other than the final season of Breaking Bad to win each of the Globe, Critics Choice, SAG, WGA and DGA awards and it did so in a televised/guild awards season whose start was delayed by almost two full months. And the competition at those awards isn’t that much different to what it will be at the Emmys. If voters were fatigued by it or it was “forgotten” due to its air date then it probably would have lost DGA to WandaVision (a show with more recency than it). It also speaks to the time’s we’re living in more than The Underground Railroad will. That’s not a statement comparing the qualitative aspects of both shows (I mean how could I judge The Undeground Railroad‘s quality when it hasn’t even been released yet lol) but part of why The Queen’s Gambit has done so well both awards wise and audience wise is how escapist it is in a year where people are stuck in their homes and are unable to really go anywhere. There is also an element of catharsis in there that has struck a particular chord in a year where people have been through so much emotionally. People find it very heartfelt. I think topicality and “speaking to the times” are often misconnected (I say this as someone who did this myself to argue why The Queen’s Gambit would lose earlier this year). Mrs. America was a very topical show but Watchmen was competing at a time when racial justice was (rightfully) at the heart of public conversation. That’s not the SOLE reason Watchmen won but it didn’t hurt its chances at all. When They See Us was also very topical but Chernobyl came at a time when the accountancy of politicians was at the crux of attention. Likewise The Night Of was very topical (and was probably second in series judging by its Emmy performance) but Big Little Lies came at a time when a misogynistic monster who openly bragged about assaulting women was elected president of the United States and whilst women’s rights were making the headlines (see the woman’s march on Washington in January of that year). Again “speaking to the times” weren’t the sole reasons why they won but both Big Little Lies and Chernobyl were helped by their timeliness.

    Maybe The Underground Railroad does surprise us (I am predicting it for 9 above the line Emmy nominations) but The Queen’s Gambit isn’t going to crash so easily purely because a show directed by an Oscar winner is entering the race. I feel like people forget that it beat The Crown and Watchmen(!) in combined guild categories last month.

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    JV
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    #1204247911

    The industry is going to be all over The Underground Railroad. Barry Jenkins is very respected, and some have even called this show his crowing achievement (thus far). I could see Thuso Mbedu actually winning actress.

    Calm down, man. Remember that Bill Camp got a SAG nomination with less than 15 minutes of screentime. It’s not like suddenly TQG doesn’t have support anymore. They supported enough to give it a win in every award show so far.

    The Underground Railroad could win Series, but Anya Taylor Joy is beyond locked with all the hype around her.

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    Luca
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    #1204247913

    This show is the only one other than the final season of Breaking Bad to win each of the Globe, Critics Choice, SAG, WGA and DGA awards and it did so in a televised/guild awards season whose start was delayed by almost two full months. And the competition at those awards isn’t that much different to what it will be at the Emmys.

    Right, but The Underground Railroad wasn’t eligible at all of those 🙂 Who knows how things would have gone then.

    Calm down, man.

    Nah. I’m not here for calling these races a done deal, including actress.

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    hopelesstar
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    #1204247924

    The Underground Railroad subject matter doesn’t have a broad appeal. That won’t change despite the acclaim or Jenkins being respected. A lot of reactions when the trailer dropped was being annoyed at another show on slavery. This show could treat it very respectfully (unlike Them) but there are still a lot of people that will not watch. The long episodes are also not appealing, so yes it’s possible some voters skip it.

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    wolfali
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    #1204247936

    Right, but The Underground Railroad wasn’t eligible at all of those Who knows how things would have gone then.

    Well I mean the same argument could be made for Ozark last year when it was up against Succession. Or Unorthodox when it was up against WatchmenAtlanta too when it was up against Maisel.

    I know you don’t like the show but it has ASC, ACE, CAS, CDG, Critics Choice, DGA, Golden Globe, MPSE, PGA, SAG, Scripter and WGA WINS. It has 307k votes on IMDB and counting and is a massive international hit. Is it locked for the win? No. And no one has implied that it is. But it’s going to have to take a lot more than critics raving about it for The Underground Railroad to win here. Especially in a category like Actress. It’s a much stronger frontrunner than either SuccessionWatchmen or Maisel were.

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    mafro987
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    #1204247943

    Sorry but why are people treating slavery like it’s a topic Hollywood won’t touch anymore? Just because a few twitter comments said they’re tired of it doesn’t mean Hollywood is. Just last year, Erivo got in at the Oscars for a so-so performance over the most critically-backed performance of the year in Lupita, just because the genre was more in their wheelhouse.

    I actually expect The Underground Railroad to have a broader appeal than I May Destroy You (a half-hour British show with an abnormal tone) and Small Axe (a niche British episodic period anthology) just because history has shown that this type of black story is what Hollywood tends to gravitate towards. Also, this is Barry Jenkins adapting a Pulitzer Prize-winning book. He will tackle the subject matter in a fresh and compelling way.

    For Your Consideration:

    Best International Feature: Instinct (The Netherlands)
    Best Actress: Carice van Houten (Instinct)

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    Luca
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    #1204247950

    Plus, every review has pointed out how TUR does not follow the usual tropes of TV shows/movies about slavery.

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