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Emmys 2021 Movie/Limited Predictions (Part 6)

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    hopelesstar
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    #1204247953

    Sorry but why are people treating slavery like it’s a topic Hollywood won’t touch anymore? Just because a few twitter comments said they’re tired of it doesn’t mean Hollywood is. Just last year, Erivo got in at the Oscars for a so-so performance over the most critically-backed performance of the year in Lupita, just because the genre was more in their wheelhouse. I actually expect The Underground Railroad to have a broader appeal than I May Destroy You (a half-hour British show with an abnormal tone) and Small Axe (a niche British episodic period anthology) just because history has shown that this type of black story is what Hollywood tends to gravitate towards.

    The debate here was about winning, which Erivo didn’t and no one is expecting IMDY and Small Axe to win so…

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    mafro987
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    #1204247966

    The debate here was about winning, which Erivo didn’t and no one is expecting IMDY and Small Axe to win so…

    You said ‘The Underground Railroad subject matter doesn’t have a broad appeal’ which definitely isn’t the case looking at historical trends. I don’t think anyone expects it to be as widely seen as The Queen’s Gambit, which isn’t some revolutionary point to make. I’m arguing against the reasons given for why TUR can’t win, not that it will win – I personally think TQG is still almost locked.

    For Your Consideration:

    Best International Feature: Instinct (The Netherlands)
    Best Actress: Carice van Houten (Instinct)

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    Melvinezq
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    #1204248002

    Well I mean the same argument could be made for Ozark last year when it was up against Succession. Or Unorthodox when it was up against Watchmen. Atlanta too when it was up against Maisel. I know you don’t like the show but it has ASC, ACE, CAS, CDG, Critics Choice, DGA, Golden Globe, MPSE, PGA, SAG, Scripter and WGA WINS. It has 307k votes on IMDB and counting and is a massive international hit. Is it locked for the win? No. And no one has implied that it is. But it’s going to have to take a lot more than critics raving about it for The Underground Railroad to win here. Especially in a category like Actress. It’s a much stronger frontrunner than either Succession, Watchmen or Maisel were.

    Just because it’s not released in the same season half as The Underground Railroad. Remember, Stranger Things was a big hit back then, and probably would’ve gotten everything had The Handmaid’s Tale not been released at the same period. Yes, no one’s sure because the wave of publicity hasn’t started, but never underestimate the money of Amazon.

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    wolfali
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    #1204248004

    Remember, Stranger Things was a big hit back then, and probably would’ve gotten everything had The Handmaid’s Tale not been released at the same period.

    Out of all the awards The Queen’s Gambit has won this season so far, Stranger Things only won 2 (PGA and SAG). It also didn’t win a single major individual acting award.

    No one is ruling out The Underground Railroad from winning but I’ve seen many suggestions on here that The Queen’s Gambit is going to lose Series and Actress (some with certainty) but I see the argument as quite baseless and ludicrous at this point.

    Just because a show has strong reviews, it does not guarantee it to win before people have actually seen it (nor does it make it the frontrunner that some proclaimed it was on the last thread).

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    Melvinezq
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    #1204248011

    Plus, no one respected Ozark the way they respected Succession, especially when the Metacritic score rocketed and the whole show was much more relatable to them. No one cared about Jews when the murder of black people was the headline everyday. No one wanted a drama, no matter how critically raved it was, to win against another (but much funnier) drama with stand up comedian at the centre. Now we’re going to see what current will appear, and which way it will go.

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    wolfali
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    #1204248014

    No one cared about Jews when the murder of black people was the headline everyday.

    I-?

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    Melvinezq
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    #1204248021

    I-?

    I mean it was clear that the cultural environment really supported Watchmen (although it was deserving even without any narrative). Now, we don’t have that. Perhaps it supports TQG; the fact that its creator is a big TV player is also a big factor, but I think the narrative of Moonlight maker goes to TV and gives them a gem can be stronger. Let’s see.

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    puck05
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    #1204248023

    Regardless of quality or subject, TUR won’t be as popular as TQG because it’s on Amazon not Netflix. TQG wouldn’t be this popular if it was on any other platform or network.

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    wolfali
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    #1204248026

    I mean it was clear that the cultural environment really supported Watchmen (although it was deserving even without any narrative). Now, we don’t have that. Perhaps it supports TQG; the fact that its creator is a big TV player is also a big factor, but I think the narrative of Moonlight maker goes to TV and gives them a gem can be stronger. Let’s see.

    It also speaks to the time’s we’re living in more than The Underground Railroad will. That’s not a statement comparing the qualitative aspects of both shows (I mean how could I judge The Underground Railroad‘s quality when it hasn’t even been released yet lol) but part of why The Queen’s Gambit has done so well both awards wise and audience wise is how escapist it is in a year where people are stuck in their homes and are unable to really go anywhere. There is also an element of catharsis in there that has struck a particular chord in a year where people have been through so much emotionally. People find it very heartfelt. I think topicality and “speaking to the times” are often misconnected (I say this as someone who did this myself to argue why The Queen’s Gambit would lose earlier this year). Mrs. America was a very topical show but Watchmen was competing at a time when racial justice was (rightfully) at the heart of public conversation. That’s not the SOLE reason Watchmen won but it didn’t hurt its chances at all. When They See Us was also very topical but Chernobyl came at a time when the accountancy of politicians was at the crux of attention. Likewise The Night Of was very topical (and was probably second in series judging by its Emmy performance) but Big Little Lies came at a time when a misogynistic monster who openly bragged about assaulting women was elected president of the United States and whilst women’s rights were making the headlines (see the woman’s march on Washington in January of that year). Again “speaking to the times” weren’t the sole reasons why they won but both Big Little Lies and Chernobyl were helped by their timeliness.

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    mafro987
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    #1204248030

    Just because a show has strong reviews, it does not guarantee it to win before people have actually seen it (nor does it make it the frontrunner that some proclaimed it was on the last thread).

    I mean I May Destroy You literally received more than double the number of points The Queen’s Gambit received on the 2020 metacritic year-end list and still lost to it repeatedly. TQG should still comfortably win Series despite the weaker critical reception in comparison to the other contenders.

    For Your Consideration:

    Best International Feature: Instinct (The Netherlands)
    Best Actress: Carice van Houten (Instinct)

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    Couverture
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    #1204248032

    Right, but The Underground Railroad wasn’t eligible at all of those Who knows how things would have gone then.

    Tbf The Queen’s Gambit did beat Watchmen at multiple guilds and that was the biggest show at the Emmys in terms of both wins and nominations in over a decade (bar Game of Thrones). So I think we can make a fair guess that nothing much would’ve changed for it even with that.

    PS: Before some can claim TQG’s wins were because of it being fresher in voters’ minds, I’d remind them that the likes of The Crown S3 and The Marvelous Mrs Maisel won at the same guilds this year.

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    wolfali
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    #1204248035

    I mean I May Destroy You literally received more than double the number of points The Queen’s Gambit received on the 2020 metacritic year-end list and still lost to it repeatedly. TQG should still comfortably win Series despite the lower critical reception in comparison to the other contenders.

    I agree. My point was more that The Underground Railroad is not going to win series solely because it is more acclaimed than The Queen’s Gambit (which I was led to believe by multiple posts declaring TUR as the frontrunner for series and directing on the previous thread). Mrs. America had a stronger Metacritic score than WatchmenAtlanta had more critical passion than Maisel.

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    mateil
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    #1204248048

    If Watchmen and Queen’s Gambit were competing now, who do you think would win?

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    wolfali
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    #1204248057

    If Watchmen and Queen’s Gambit were competing now, who do you think would win?

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    methaddiction
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    #1204248061

     

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