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Emmys Comedy Predictions (Part 3)

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  • Rachel
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    #1203031028

    Campaign update videos:

    Part of the Barry interview on Lights Out With David Spade (Hader, Root, Carden, Winkler) 8/19: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TJsxpERZoq4

    Phoebe Waller-Bridge Interview w/ Backstage 8/14: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sxLdCZRqqRY&t=404s

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    Riley
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    I just have this hunch that Fleabag is going to sweep and then all of us will look at it in hindsight and say that we should have seen it coming.

    My gut says that Fleabag is obviously sweeping, but I am too proud of my logic for why Barry is winning instead that I am sticking with it until the Creative Arts. Barry winning over Fleabag is also much more consistent with our one certainty: Game of Thrones winning. We will have to take solace in how the Creative Arts should make it pretty obvious what will happen at the main ceremony this year. Our scores will still be relatively good because so many people are way off this year by predicting Veep that I do not expect them to properly adjust after the Creative Arts as we will.

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    AayaanUpadhyaya
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    #1203031146

    My gut says that Fleabag is obviously sweeping, but I am too proud of my logic for why Barry is winning instead that I am sticking with it until the Creative Arts. Barry winning over Fleabag is also much more consistent with our one certainty: Game of Thrones winning. We will have to take solace in how the Creative Arts should make it pretty obvious what will happen at the main ceremony this year. Our scores will still be relatively good because so many people are way off this year by predicting Veep that I do not expect them to properly adjust after the Creative Arts as we will.

    As always, I agree with all of this.

    I am particularly looking at Casting to figure out which way the wind is blowing. If Fleabag wins Casting, it’s sweeping and I’ll even predict it to win Directing. If Barry wins casting, I’ll be more confident in predicting it for Series (although Fleabag can still win) and it’ll be a lock for directing.

    Regardless, I am pretty confident about Kristen Scott Thomas winning Guest Actress, I even have a super bet on her. Riley, you should predict her too.

    I am astounded at how many people are sticking with Veep. I mean, it literally lost nominations in every category – acting, directing, even some craft categories. I also feel people are underestimating the severity of Maisel’s snub in writing. It’s not a fluke, the writers chose to not nominate it – that has to mean something.

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    Kellyemm
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    Kristin Scott Thomas was A+. Such a great guest. Fabulous.

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    Mickmack
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    As always, I agree with all of this. I am particularly looking at Casting to figure out which way the wind is blowing. If Fleabag wins Casting, it’s sweeping and I’ll even predict it to win Directing. If Barry wins casting, I’ll be more confident in predicting it for Series (although Fleabag can still win) and it’ll be a lock for directing. Regardless, I am pretty confident about Kristen Scott Thomas winning Guest Actress, I even have a super bet on her. Riley, you should predict her too. I am astounded at how many people are sticking with Veep. I mean, it literally lost nominations in every category – acting, directing, even some craft categories. I also feel people are underestimating the severity of Maisel’s snub in writing. It’s not a fluke, the writers chose to not nominate it – that has to mean something.

    For what? One 2 minute scene?

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    Pulp
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    #1203031221

    I think that’s what will happen.

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    AayaanUpadhyaya
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    Many people said that last year for Bill Hader, and we all know how that turned out. A lot of people also said this about Ann Dowd, and we all know how that turned out as well.

    I’m starting to realize that, when actors are double-nominated like this, under this new system they are more likely to win for shows that have more support, instead of winning for performances they probably got nominated for because of their second nomination.

    So Dowd wins for THT > The Leftovers, Hader wins for Barry > SNL, and Oh wins for Killing Eve > SNL. In fact, I feel like Oh’s SNL nomination is very telling of the support for her, just like Dowd getting in as the sole nominee for Leftovers should have warned us about her upset in Supporting Actress.

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    Roney Moore
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    ^You can also add Jon Hamm-Mad Men/Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt to that list. Many people thought that if he could not even win in the easy guest category there was not much support for him to get an Emmy that year. But voters were just focused on the main one.

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    The Artist Formerly Known as Xander Cassel
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    #1203031249

    Hey, dah-ling Artist Currently Known as Le Suck, educate yourself. Google Hugo Awards Wikipedia and learn a thing about the most important awards in the science fiction book and entertainment genre.

    Oh my god. You’re precious.

    For what? One 2 minute scene?

    Much like I tell all my dates–it’s not the length that matters.

    Current predictions are

    SERIES

    Fleabag

    ACTRESS

    Julia Louis-Dreyfus

    ACTOR 

    Bill Hader

    SUPPORTING ACTRESS 

    Olivia Colman

    SUPPORTING ACTOR 

    Tony Shalhoub

    WRITING

    Fleabag

    DIRECTION

    Barry–“ronny/lily”

    GUEST ACTRESS 

    Kristen Scott Thomas

    GUEST ACTOR

    John Mulaney

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    thatnerdgreg
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    #1203031371

    When I first watched Kristen Scott Thomas’ episode, I thought she was gonna win. But then after her big scene, she completely disappears from the episode. She definitely gives a great performance, but I’m just not sure if she had enough screen time.

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    kellis
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    #1203031381

    Many people said that last year for Bill Hader, and we all know how that turned out. A lot of people also said this about Ann Dowd, and we all know how that turned out as well. I’m starting to realize that, when actors are double-nominated like this, under this new system they are more likely to win for shows that have more support, instead of winning for performances they probably got nominated for because of their second nomination. So Dowd wins for THT > The Leftovers, Hader wins for Barry > SNL, and Oh wins for Killing Eve > SNL. In fact, I feel like Oh’s SNL nomination is very telling of the support for her, just like Dowd getting in as the sole nominee for Leftovers should have warned us about her upset in Supporting Actress.

    The problem with that though is that neither Dowd or Hader had to deal with vote-splitting and that’s what sets Oh apart from them. I think more than a few voters will assume that she’ll suffer from it with Comer and then throw their support to her in Guest so she can win at least one Emmy (whether it be with Lead Actress or instead of it).

    “No user starts this shady” - someone culturally relevant.

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    AayaanUpadhyaya
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    #1203031403

    The problem with that though is that neither Dowd or Hader had to deal with vote-splitting

    Umm did you forget Samira Wiley?

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    kellis
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    #1203031418

    I’m not going to lie…

    I now look like booboo the fool, but I will say that I’m pretty sure that she was a limited factor compared to what Comer will conceivably be and voters will see it as such.

    “No user starts this shady” - someone culturally relevant.

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    AayaanUpadhyaya
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    I now look like booboo the fool, but I will say that I’m pretty sure that she was a limited factor compared to what Comer will conceivably be and voters will see it as such.

    Fair enough

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    nahborghi
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    #1203031763

    Variety did a edition on the Comedy categories. Betty Gilpin and Natasha Lyonne are on the cover. I want them to work together now.

    https://www.variety.com/2019/tv/awards/emmys-2019-natasha-lyonne-betty-gilpin-stylized-comedy-female-community-fame-interview-1203297586/amp/

    I think something Natasha said in the interview adds to the discussion of whether she’s playing herself or not.

    “But I will say that the joy of being the architect of “Russian Doll” — the writer, the overseer of its aesthetic and point of view — is you really get to build your own world, and you know exactly the size and the range you can do. So in other ways I’ve been often typecast into things that may seem like a sister adjacent to my role in “Russian Doll,” but because here I was doing the writing and the world-building, I was able to make much bigger swings and know what would or wouldn’t land because I knew where I was coming from and had control of the edit.”

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