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Emmys Movie/Limited Nominations Reactions

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    AayaanUpadhyaya
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    #1203040768

    Clarkson is a veteran actress in a series that the voters obviously watched

    Are we sure about this?

    Because my rational behind predicting Arquette over Clarkson is that the acting branch (which is the only branch that decides this category) actually nominated Joey King in Lead Actress (a stand-out performance from a younger actress) but snubbed Eliza Scanlen in Supporting Actress (another stand-out performance from a younger actress).

    Them nominating Joey King means that they saw Arquette’s performance, which can make this an easy win for her. And that’s even before we take into consideration her second nod for Escape.

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    Pulp
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    #1203040821

    I sort of feel like Arquette coattailed off King and her own lead nomination. I don’t get the sense that there’s any passion for her.

    #FreeTheBannedFour

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    DrewN92
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    #1203040829

    I’m very confused with what to do in terms of Arquette vs. Williams and Arquette vs. Clarkson, but my thought process right now –As much as people assume Arquette will mostly receive votes in lead for EAD, I do have a feeling she will split votes for people who feel more compelled to vote for Williams in lead or Clarkson in supporting. This can only hurt Arquette.

    Also, Clarkson won the Globe, Critic’s Choice, and was nominated at SAG where the lead and supporting actors are combined into one category so I wouldn’t count this loss as too notable. She is a TV/film veteran who has genuinely worked with everyone it seems (I mean look at her filmography) and this is a category voted on by her peers. Also to note is Clarkson won both times she was previously nominated at the Emmy’s.

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    DrewN92
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    #1203040849

    White Michelle is winning her Emmy. 1/3 Triple Crown and going. Next stop the Oscars.

    Correct. I don’t expect her to take too long to Triple Crown in all honesty. I saw her play Blackbird on Broadway twice and she was absolutely incredible. It’s only a matter of time.

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    montana82
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    #1203040928

    One of the reasons I am struggling to predict Clarkson, Arquette (The Act), or Ben Whishaw is because they are likely nominated for the 5th, 6th, and 7th most popular series with the voters. 2 of them not even up for best series.

    In this new system, usually the most popular limited series nearly sweeps and the major wins are usually had by 1-2 shows, 3 tops.

    2015 (Popular ranking system)

    Oliver Kitteredge sweeps Series, Actress, Actor, and Supporting Actor
    American Crime wins Supporting Actress

    2016 (Straight popular vote)

    OJ sweeps Series, Actress, Actor, and Supporting Actor
    American Crime wins Supporting Actress (No OJ nominee)

    2017 (Straight popular vote)

    Big Little Lies sweeps Series, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress
    The Night Of wins Actor (no BLL nominee)

    2018 (straight popular vote)

    Versace wins Series and Actor
    Godless wins Supporting Actor and Actress
    Seven Seconds wins Actress

    The results tell us-

    -near sweeps are the norms in this new system. The only somewhat fragmented year was last year. Possible due to a more muted reaction to the nominees and vote splitting in the supporting races.
    – If a show wins limited series, it must win at least 1 acting award. Normally they win 3, especially if it is well received. And in the case of OJ/BLL the only category they lost was the one they had no nominee. Olive Kittredge only lost newcomer Zoe Kasan.
    – 3 of the 6 acting wins by a non Best Limited series winner were done by Regina King, someone who is clearly incredibly popular with her peers.
    – All of the acting winners besides King for Seven Seconds were from a Limited Series nominee.

    I think it’s pretty evident the most popular show with performers is probably When They See Us. Cherobyl and Fosse/Verdon appear to be next strongest. Than probably Dannemora. Than Sharp Objects. Than A Very English Scandal. Than The Act.

    If history tells us anything, if When They See Us is the favorite it should win 2-3 acting wins. If Chernobyl is it should win 2-3 acting wins. Neither will win Actress. Or is this the first year where the depth of the limited series nominees is so strong that they spread the wealth around? Tough.

    • This reply was modified 1 year, 3 months ago by Andrea.
    • This reply was modified 1 year, 3 months ago by Andrea.

    "Here's a wonderfully b*tchy post from Montana82...." - Tom O'Neill Emmy Prediction Slugfest August 1st, 2019

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    Riley Chow
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    #1203041823

    Just as Michelle Dockery should have logically won last year and did not, I do not see Vera Farmiga winning, despite the strength of her show in other (acting) categories.

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    Tyler
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    #1203041871

    There’s no statistical evidence for this but I think Clarkson could be someone in a King-like position who wins off the goodwill for her individually rather than support for the series. She’s a character actress who has been around forever and worked with everyone, and from the audience response to her Golden Globe win it seemed like a lot of actors are rooting for her. The same could probably be said for Arquette, but there may be less urgency after her Oscar sweep a few years back.

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    montana82
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    #1203043250

    There’s no statistical evidence for this but I think Clarkson could be someone in a King-like position who wins off the goodwill for her individually rather than support for the series. She’s a character actress who has been around forever and worked with everyone, and from the audience response to her Golden Globe win it seemed like a lot of actors are rooting for her. The same could probably be said for Arquette, but there may be less urgency after her Oscar sweep a few years back.

    Agreed Tyler. I do wonder if Clarkson is in the Allison Janney/Regina King territory where if she walks straight while chewing gum she can win an award due to being popular with her peers and a nice person, circumstances and past stats be damned. Her wins for Six Feet Under were not undeserved but shouldn’t have been undeniable. Ditto with Sharp Objects. Yet she may be 3 for 3. She was all but accosted by Bradley Cooper and Annie Hathaway when she made her way to the stage for the Globe.

    • This reply was modified 1 year, 3 months ago by Andrea.
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    "Here's a wonderfully b*tchy post from Montana82...." - Tom O'Neill Emmy Prediction Slugfest August 1st, 2019

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    Nate
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    #1203043272

    Bingo. SFU only won 9 Emmys during its entire run: the 2 for Clarkson, 2 for Casting, 2 for Makeup, Main Title Design, Main Title Theme Music, and directing for the pilot. Clarkson is likely the only chance for Sharp Objects to win an Emmy, especially with the program having aired over a year ago now, and there doesn’t seem to be a groundswell of support of the other performances, so this looks like a category where “well, we like her enough, let’s just give her the award” seals the deal.

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    montana82
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    Bingo. SFU only won 9 Emmys during its entire run: the 2 for Clarkson, 2 for Casting, 2 for Makeup, Main Title Design, Main Title Theme Music, and directing for the pilot. Clarkson is likely the only chance for Sharp Objects to win an Emmy, especially with the program having aired over a year ago now, and there doesn’t seem to be a groundswell of support of the other performances, so this looks like a category where “well, we like her enough, let’s just give her the award” seals the deal.

    Amazing she won twice when not a single actor won from that show.

    "Here's a wonderfully b*tchy post from Montana82...." - Tom O'Neill Emmy Prediction Slugfest August 1st, 2019

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    Lord Freddy Blackfyre
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    #1203050076

    <p style=”text-align: left;”>I started watching “When They See Us” and IT is only the first episode but this isn’t on the same league of Chernobyl and Fosse/Verdom.</p>

    The Oscar needs to get rid of the preferential ballot so it can name a deserving movie as Best Picture again.

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    methaddiction
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    #1203050240

    <p style=”text-align: left;”>I started watching “When They See Us” and IT is only the first episode but this isn’t on the same league of Chernobyl and Fosse/Verdom.</p>

    We get it you hate minorities.

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