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Feels Obvious To Me, Long Shot to Everyone Else (TV Winter Awards Edition)

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    wolfali
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    #1203785390

    Building up on a similar thread posted for the Emmys what do you all feel in your predictions are obvious to you or locks for the Globes and SAG etc that people think aren’t or are not predicting. I’m interested because of how often (with the Globes in particular) we get out of nowhere wtf predictions that some people find obvious and some find surprising.

    Comment what you feel is obvious to you when you’re predicting nominations.

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight" and "The Other Two" in all categories.

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    Luca
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    #1203785604

    If Trump wins Mrs. America is winning Series, Actress and S. Actress.

    I completely disagree. The last piece Schlafly wrote before her death was pro-Trump. She is the reason why women have fewer rights nowadays than they should in the U.S., or why it took so long for them to gain certain ones. Trump believes in most of the same principles. If he is re-elected, I don’t think people will want to touch Blanchett — which is ridiculous, but I get it. That said, the election results will not sway Globe voters, I assume, so she can def. win the Globe — but it wouldn’t be because of the election results.

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    William Gillquist
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    Golden Globes

    • The Comey Rule will be shut out and Showtime’s biggst push will be The Good Lord Bird.
    • On that note, Your Honor will also be shut out.
    • Fargo will be shut out.
    • Schitt’s Creek won’t win anything outside of maybe Actress.
    • Ted Lasso will get nominated for Series and Sudekis will win Actor, unless they decide to reward Ramy again, which is possible.
    • If The Boys is nominated for Series, Anthony Starr will be nominated for Supporting Actor.
    • Normal People will get nominated for Actor and maybe Actress, not Series.
    • If Hamilton is Emmys eligible, it will get nominated for Limited/Movie.
    • Mandalorian isn’t happening in Series.
    • Mrs. America won’t win anything regardless of who wins the election. Mainly because of The Undoing.

    Critics Choice

    • Better Call Saul will win Drama Series
    • If Hamilton is Emmys eligible, it will win for Television Movie.

    <p style=”text-align: left;”>SAG</p>

    • Schitt’s Creek will vote-split in both individual categories. It’s only win will be for Ensemble.
    • Ramy and Dead to Me will also vote-split.
    • The Crown will win Drama Ensemble.
    • If Pelphrey is nominated, Bateman can’t win.

    FYC Oscars: Licorice Pizza (Best Picture, Best Director, Original Screenplay), The Mitchells vs The Machines (Best Picture, Animated Feature, Original Screenplay), Wes Anderson (Best Director), Denzel Washington (The Tragedy of MacBeth), Andrew Garfield and Robin de Jesus (Tick, Tick...BOOM!), Jayne Houdyshell (The Humans), Stephen Karam (Adapted Screenplay), Attica and Summer of Soul (Best Documentary)

    FYC Razzies: Dear Evan Hansen (in all eligible categories)

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    braydenfitzsimmons
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    #1203785659

    Critics Choice

    • FX will dominate the Limited nominees (Devs, Mrs America, Fargo & A Teacher)
    • Ellis & Nash will be nominated for their respective Lifetime biopics
    • Lexi Underwood will be Little Fires only nomination
    • The Boys is more likely than The Mandalorian
    • Kelly Clarkson will win Best Talk Series if nominated again
    • Broadcast will be stronger here than any here other body (B99, ZEP, Superstore, Modern Family, TGD & if eligible TGP)
    • Ramy will be the most nominated show period (Series + 5 acting noms)

    Golden Globes

    • Buckley will be Fargo’s only nomination.
    • Schitt’s Creek is at max getting 3 nominations (Series & 2 leads)
    • Little Fires one nomination will be for Series
    • Zoey’s Extraordinary Playlist in Comedy Series>
    • Coel will win Limited Actress
    • The Boys will overperform
    • Truth Seekers is underestimated

    SAG

    • Sukedis will win in a Ramy/Schitt’s vote spilt

    Oscars FYC:

    "Lamb" – International Feature and all categories

    "Summer of Soul" – Picture, Film Editing and Documentary Feature

    “The Green Knight” – in all categories

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    AmnistY21
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    Globes

    Ratched will be shut out ( not even the Globes will stoop this low)

    The Good Lord Bird getting into Series (not much of a long shot but many are not predicting it)

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    gabspss
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    #1203787414

    Globes:

    P-Valley in series is ahead of Perry Mason, Lovecraft Country and Ratched.

    Number of Starz’s nods per year at the Globes:
    2011: 3 noms
    2012: 2 noms (1 win)
    2013: 1 nom
    2014: 6 noms (1 win)
    2015: 2 noms
    2016: 6 noms
    2017: 3 noms
    2018: 1 nom
    2019: 1 nom
    2020: 0 noms

    P-Valley has 85 on MC and the drama categories are empty as freak. Why they would waste giving a nod for a well received show from one of their favorite networks?

    It's about the chaotic editing in Moulin Rouge!

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    mariogomez
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    GOLDEN GLOBES
    -Michael Sheen will be nominated for Quiz.
    -Amanda Peet will be nominated for Dirty John.
    -John C. Reilly will be nominated for Moonbase 8.

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    Sir Shaw
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    #1203790705

    Swank always felt like this years Kevin Bacon in City on a Hill/Kevin Costner’s Yellowstone and now I guess she won’t even be that

    ‘Away’ Canceled By Netflix After One Season

     

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    Sir Shaw
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    GOLDEN GLOBES -Michael Sheen will be nominated for Quiz.

    Quiz is gonna be this year’s Catch-22.

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    braydenfitzsimmons
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    #1203790868

    Globes:

    P-Valley in series is ahead of Perry Mason, Lovecraft Country and Ratched.

    Number of Starz’s nods per year at the Globes:
    2011: 3 noms
    2012: 2 noms (1 win)
    2013: 1 nom
    2014: 6 noms (1 win)
    2015: 2 noms
    2016: 6 noms
    2017: 3 noms
    2018: 1 nom
    2019: 1 nom
    2020: 0 noms

    P-Valley has 85 on MC and the drama categories are empty as freak. Why they would waste giving a nod for a well received show from one of their favorite networks?

    The 3rd highest rated drama (continuing, not limited) of the year (and probably stay that way unless The Crown hits or Netflix has another surprise smash)

    1. Better Call Saul — 92
    2. My Brilliant Friend — 92
    3. P-Valley — 85
    4. The Good Fight — 84
    5. The Boys — 80

    It’s situation reminds of Pose, a critically acclaimed under the radar summer cable hit that no one / few took seriously an awards contender until it does well on the year end lists and winter awards (GGs, CCs etc).

    Then becomes an Emmy hit due to a Netflix release in the spring (assuming P-Valley goes to Netflix since Power does) and like a weaker year (avoiding GoT & covid-shutdowns, respectively).

    Oscars FYC:

    "Lamb" – International Feature and all categories

    "Summer of Soul" – Picture, Film Editing and Documentary Feature

    “The Green Knight” – in all categories

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    Sir Shaw
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    #1203902002

    In a year as abysmally empty as Drama Series is this year, so there no reason that two critically adored programs (The Boys and P-Valley) from two of the HFPAs favourite networks wouldn’t rack up multiple nominations at the Globes.

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    Luca
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    Obvious to me: Lovecraft Country is getting no love outside of CC. I don’t have it getting any Globe or SAG noms.

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    Pranshu
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    Both Christina Applegate & Linda Cardellini getting in at GG feels obvious to me, even though, not a lot are predicting Linda in favor of Jane Levy, Lily Collins, Issa Rae, Maitreyi Ramakrishnan, to name a few.

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    forwardswill
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    I don’t think anything this year is obvious but these are the closest I’ve got

    Golden Globes

    – Sandra Oh is ahead of Jodie Comer.
    Dead to Me is getting shut out.
    – Amazon is definitely getting nominations somewhere. Currently predicting Small Axe, Boyega and Pacino to represent.
    Hollywood is a very Globe-y show. Not brave enough yet to predict it in Series but have got Pope and Parsons.
    – There are no locks in the Supporting categories and GoldDerby is getting at least 3/5 from Supporting Actor wrong.
    – A general thing (not that even I have implemented it): we are overestimating Netflix and HBO given how much the HFPA likes to spread the wealth.

    SAG

    Lovecraft Country is not registering here.
    – Not predicting it but there is a real chance of The Crown ending up like Big Little Lies.
    The Good Place is getting shut out.

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