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Drama Series
Will Win- The Crown
Could Win- Ratched
Should Win- The CrownDrama Actor
Will Win- Josh O’Connor
Could Win- Jason Bateman
Should Win- Josh O’ConnorDrama Actress
Will Win- Emma Corrin
Could Win- Olivia Colman
Should Win- Olivia ColmanComedy Series
Will Win- Ted Lasso
could Win- Schitts Creek
Should Win- Ted LassoComedy Actor
Will Win- Jason Sudeikis
Could Win- Nicholas Hoult
Should Win- Jason SudeikisComedy Actress
Will Win- Kaley Cuoco
Could Win- Catherine O’Hara
Should Win- Kaley or CatherineLimited Series
Will Win- The Queens Gambit
Could Win- Small Axe
Should Win- I May Destroy You (oh wait)Limited Actor
Will Win- Hugh Grant
Could Win- Ethan Hawke
Should Win- Hugh GrantLimited Actress
Will Win- Anya Taylor Joy
Could Win- Nicole Kidman
Should Win- Anya Taylor JoySupporting Actor
Will Win- John Boyega
Could Win- Jim Parsons
Should Win- Jim ParsonsSupporting Actress
Will Win- Gillian Anderson
Could Win- Annie Murphy
Should Win- Gillian AndersonFYC OSCARS
PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN in all categories (inc. CAREY MULLIGAN & Emerald Fennell in Screenplay)
THE FATHER in all categories (inc. Best Picture, ANTHONY HOPKINS, Olivia Colman & Adapted Screenplay)
Lo Si (Diane Warren) for Original Song
Chloe Zhao for Director
Can people not have opinions?
I’m an ultra fan of The Crown and of Anderson’s performance but that “you must be biased” comment went too far. It’s so weird how on both sides of the spectrum The Crown of all shows strikes up strong opinions on this site. It’s power lol.
Could Win- Ratched
Why Ratched?
FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"
Why Ratched?
The Crown is 100% locked so it won’t happen, but it’s a very globes show and did well with noms, so it may be an incredibly distant runner up
FYC OSCARS
PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN in all categories (inc. CAREY MULLIGAN & Emerald Fennell in Screenplay)
THE FATHER in all categories (inc. Best Picture, ANTHONY HOPKINS, Olivia Colman & Adapted Screenplay)
Lo Si (Diane Warren) for Original Song
Chloe Zhao for Director
The Crown is 100% locked so it won’t happen, but it’s a very globes show and did well with noms, so it may be an incredibly distant runner up
I agree The Crown is 100% locked (and honestly I think it’s going to do a lot better in wins than this forum likes to think) but I think from its 4 nominations that Ozark is very clearly the runner up here (albeit a distant one).
FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"
Judging by those predictions, particularly the Murphy should win over Anderson, it’s pretty evident you haven’t seen the crown or have bias against it.
Murphy was good in schitts creek and has the comedy Emmy to show for it now, but against Gillian’s exceptional portrayal of a historical figure in an acclaimed drama series means there’s not a chance she should be taking it home.
Not to mention, The Crown season 4 is clearly deserving of any drama award, that much is undeniable & the clear frontrunner spot is very well earned.
I would bet my life’s savings that you had never seen a single clip of Margaret Thatcher prior to this season of The Crown.
Predictions
I don’t really follow TV races that much so these are probably going to be wrong but I thought I’d be bold
Best Drama Series: The Crown (Netflix)
Best Actor (Drama): Jason Bateman, Ozark (Netflix)
Best Actress (Drama): Sarah Paulson, Ratched (Netflix)Best Comedy Series: Ted Lasso (Apple TV+)
Best Actor (Comedy): Jason Sudeikis, Ted Lasso (Apple TV+)
Best Actress (Comedy): Kaley Cuoco, The Flight Attendant (HBO Max)Best Limited Series: The Queen’s Gambit (Netflix)
Best Actor (Limited): Hugh Grant, The Undoing (HBO)
Best Actress (Limited): Anya Taylor-Joy, The Queen’s Gambit (Netflix)Best Supporting Actor: Dan Levy, Schitt’s Creek (Pop TV)
Best Supporting Actress: Gillian Anderson, The Crown (Netflix)My biggest dilemma is Supporting Actor. I’m doubtful that Schitt’s Creek can continue its Emmy sweep, which is why I’m thinking Sudeikis, Cuoco and Anderson are ahead, but giving it to Levy in supporting makes more sense if you see it as an acknowledgment of his whole involvement in the series. On the other hand, Boyega is in an acclaimed film and HFPA’s best chance at awarding a black person on the TV side.
Schitt’s is taking comedy
I can see Globes rewarding it in one acting category. Toss between Comedy Actress and Supporting Actress, with it inclining to land towards the former.
I actually am confident in Ted Lasso taking Comedy. It feels very Golden Globesy and whilst they did award both Fleabag and Succession last year when the only new shows nominated were mixed reviewed/panned ones, I don’t buy them not awarding at least one new show and The Crown is not losing Drama. It helps that Ted Lasso also out-performed Schitt’s Creek on the critics lists.
I do think that Schitt’s is walking home with at least one award so I have Murphy winning.
FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"
My biggest dilemma is Supporting Actor. I’m doubtful that Schitt’s Creek can continue its Emmy sweep, which is why I’m thinking Sudeikis, Cuoco and Anderson are ahead, but giving it to Levy in supporting makes more sense if you see it as an acknowledgment of his whole involvement in the series. On the other hand, Boyega is in an acclaimed film and HFPA’s best chance at awarding a black person on the TV side.
I’m 95% sure Boyega is winning
I’m not predicting it and I’m maybe only welcoming the thought because “The Crown” winning Drama Series seems like such an easy foregone conclusion, but I could see them going with “The Mandalorian” since it is the bright and shiny thing on the TV side and they could claim dibs on being the first awards body to recognize it with a series win. That being said, they haven’t really gone for a genre show in a while (if you can even count “Lost” or “The X-Files” as comps), which is the same reason I don’t think “Lovecraft Country” will win either. “Bridgerton” would’ve been such an obvious alternative if it had been nominated, and something about “The Crown” being a surefire frontrunner with an organization that we know favors new shows doesn’t make me feel completely confident. But I’m not bold enough to make the change, at least not today. Check back on Sunday afternoon.
So if The Crown wins Drama Series it will be the first Drama to win Series again after another show having won in between its two wins since The X Files.
Interesting…
FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"
I’m not predicting it and I’m maybe only welcoming the thought because “The Crown” winning Drama Series seems like such an easy foregone conclusion, but I could see them going with “The Mandalorian” since it is the bright and shiny thing on the TV side and they could claim dibs on being the first awards body to recognize it with a series win. That being said, they haven’t really gone for a genre show in a while (if you can even count “Lost” or “The X-Files” as comps), which is the same reason I don’t think “Lovecraft Country” will win either. “Bridgerton” would’ve been such an obvious alternative if it had been nominated, and something about “The Crown” being a surefire frontrunner with an organization that we know favors new shows doesn’t make me feel completely confident. But I’m not bold enough to make the change, at least not today. Check back on Sunday afternoon.
I agree that I don’t think The Crown is this absolute lock. However, when looking at the alternatives, nothing makes much sense. The Mandalorian has the buzz and the acclaim, but no Drama Series has won without an acting nomination in the past 20 years. Not only that, but the Drama winner is often paired with an Acting win (13/20). Of course, The Mandalorian due to its nature is not an acting showcase, but it would still be strange for the HFPA to award it when they aren’t even fans of sci fi programs. They really would have a strong desire to be able to claim they were the first ones to award it to actually do it.
The acting nominations stats would also eliminate Lovecraft Country from the race. Then we have Ozark that has the acting nominations and the growing buzz but that’s a 3rd season show that can’t even win Series at the awards that love it the most, The Emmys. Then we have Ratched, that is a first season show (something the HFPA loves to award), an audience hit and has 2 acting nominations. However, it would probably be the worst critically received winner in the category for a long time. But, I dont think Gabarnes43 is wrong by thinking it could be the spoiler to The Crown, because there is a path for it. I also think Sarah Paulson is particuarly underestimated for the win considering she is the only nominee from a first season show in her category, plays an iconic character in an audience hit.
So ultimately, betting against The Crown just isn’t a smart idea.
I agree that I don’t think The Crown is this absolute lock. However, when looking at the alternatives, nothing makes much sense. The Mandalorian has the buzz and the acclaim, but no Drama Series has won without an acting nomination in the past 20 years. Not only that, but the Drama winner is often paired with an Acting win (13/20). Of course, The Mandalorian due to its nature is not an acting showcase, but it would still be strange for the HFPA to award it when they aren’t even fans of sci fi programs. They really would have a strong desire to be able to claim they were the first ones to award it to actually do it.
The acting nominations stats would also eliminate Lovecraft Country from the race. Then we have Ozark that has the acting nominations and the growing buzz but that’s a 3rd season show that can’t even win Series at the awards that love it the most, The Emmys. Then we have Ratched, that is a first season show (something the HFPA loves to award), an audience hit and has 2 acting nominations. However, it would probably be the worst critically received winner in the category for a long time. But, I dont think Gabarnes43 is wrong by thinking it could be the spoiler to The Crown, because there is a path for it. I also think Sarah Paulson is particuarly underestimated for the win considering she is the only nominee from a first season show in her category, plays an iconic character in an audience hit.
So ultimately, betting against The Crown just isn’t a smart idea.
Yeah, I think “Ratched” is top 3 somehow. Some of their choices on the film side in recent years don’t preclude them giving a Series win to a show that is not well received. I’m sticking with “The Crown,” but I just think their left field choices could accumulate in a “Mandalorian” win even if it goes against stats and prior Globes history or “Ratched” for fitting the criteria of a normal Series winner even if it isn’t a good show. But like you said, there’s nothing really supporting a “Lovecraft” or “Ozark” win.
So ultimately, betting against The Crown just isn’t a smart idea.
Yeah.
I know it comes across sometimes as if I’m someone who thinks this season of The Crown makes it some invincible show awards wise (I don’t and I think it’s not going to sweep the crafts when The Queen’s Gambit and so many limited series with baity crafts are right there) but the thing is what else is there that can win over it? Not only does it seem to have grown in strength, fit the trend of the last two winners but its competition feels weak. I would only feel more sceptical about its chances if Succession returned or it had some sort of a Ted Lasso type new season show competing against it. I feel like even if it loses something like S. Actress (which I am predicting it to lose to Schitt’s Creek) that its path seems to be there for it in Series here. A bit like The Americans.
Ratched is definitely top 3 though and before its reviews came in I was actually predicting it as the early frontrunner but I don’t know whether they’d go for such a divisive show. I do think Paulson is being underestimated as a spoiler in Actress here though and is probably second or third at worst. This role was huge for her.
FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"
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