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Yes but you questioned why any of Spencer, Washington (both Emmy nominated), Witherspon, Peet, Strahovski, Mara or Dockery would have gotten in at Critics Choice because of the first word in their title.
Yeah I did because none of them were in critically acclaimed shows. I thought that bit was obvious. Surely the only Globe contenders we should be ruling out based on the Critics Choice nominations are ones that we would have expected the critics to lean more towards than the HFPA? This applies to none of the contenders you listed.
LIMITED/TV MOVIE ACTOR
(ranked in order of perceived likelihood of nomination)1. Hugh Grant, The Undoing – I don’t think he is winning and I severely hope he isn’t as this is definitely the weakest of his career renaissance performances. But with his name and how successful the show was I’d be most shocked if he missed when, yes, there are many contenders but there is a severe absence of strong ones.
2. Ethan Hawke, The Good Lord Bird – Feels like a winner. Big showy performance in a rousing and quirky Showtime contender. But the show wasn’t big enough to completely rule out the possibility that they shut it out. Slim chance of that I imagine though.
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3. Mark Ruffalo, I Know This Much is True – Honestly I still have no idea how he won the Emmy and for that alone he is at least 3rd if not higher. However, maybe the reasons I thought he couldn’t win back then (depressing material, uncared for show) will actually start to apply now that it’s been half a year since airing. Could easily be a strange default winner.
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4. Jeremy Pope, Hollywood – Yes, I know I’m crazy. But I really sense a breakout with this one. The Emmys had no reason to nominate him but unbeknownst to most a wave of support behind him had clearly formed. Let’s not forget, he wasn’t even the real lead of this show. Those voters bothered to know his name. And, at the end of the day, who do I think the HFPA would be more excited by honoring: Pope or Mescal? There’s only one answer in my eyes and that’s the problem with them.
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5. Hugh Jackman, Bad Education – Incidentally, the first time I have predicted him. But I recently realised how rarely these spring release HBO movies actually miss for their big star if they’ve been Emmy nommed. Why would Jackman be the first to fail? My reservations mostly come from the fact that I think Grant and Ruffalo could overwhelm him as HBO choices. But we shall see.
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6. Bryan Cranston, Your Honor – Just taken him out but won’t bat an eyelid if he makes it. Such an obvious namecheck possibility on a show no one has been able to claim yet. But also does anyone really want to claim anything from this show? I think at this point there is enough lack of interest to warrant not predicting him.
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7. Chris Rock, Fargo – If the season had in any way lived up to expectations, he’d be winning. The HFPA would have loved to have that moment. But instead it was mediocrely received, leaving his chances down to his popular appeal as an easy namecheck.
8. Paul Mescal, Normal People – Never watched Normal People but I have little doubt that he was as fantastic as people have said. But where is the precedent for a nomination like his here? Unlike Pope he was a complete unknown prior to this show and if this was a fall release that might have actually helped him. But instead it came out ages ago, had its buzz ages ago and now most of the HFPA probably doesn’t remember his name. Equally though, he did make it at the Emmys so he is certainly not that far off.
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9. Chris Evans, Defending Jacob – Anyone noticed yet how, as per, this category is basically only namecheck contenders? So of course Evans could get in. He’d set the internet alight more than any of those listed above. If Apple had got their asses in gear and remembered to push him like they did for the Emmys (I sound like a broken record I know), he’d be very predictable.
10. Jeff Daniels, The Comey Rule – As previously mentioned, still think there’s a possibility that they go big on this like The Loudest Voice. Also: namecheck.
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11. Jude Law, The Third Day – Namecheck! They like him more than any other awards group so could resurrect this if they don’t like the others.
This applies to none of the contenders you listed.
It certainly does to at least each of Mara, Peet and Strahovski who give some of the most acclaimed performances in this category.
But anyway I am not disagreeing that they can still make it in. As I said in my original post I am not ruling them out! It’s just making me start to question my predictions here (particularly my Mara one).
FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"
10. Jeff Daniels, The Comey Rule – As previously mentioned, still think there’s a possibility that they go big on this like The Loudest Voice. Also: namecheck.
I have a strange feeling The Comey Rule may end up doing very well here. Maybe it’s because it might have added poignancy due to the insurrection? I don’t know.
FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"
Updated predictions. I made lots of changes to my predictions
Best TV series drama
The boys
Bridgerton
The crown
The mandalorian
P-valleyBest TV series musical or comedy
The flight attendant
The great
Schitt’s creek
Ted lasso
Zoeys extraordinary playlistBest limited series or motion picture made for television
The good lord bird
I may destroy you
Normal people
The queen’s gambit
The undoingBest actress drama
Emma corrin (the crown)
Phoebe dynevor (bridgerton)
Elarica gallacher (p-valley)
Sarah paulson (ratched)
Jurnee smollette (lovecraft country)Best actress musical or comedy
Lilly collins (emily in paris)
Kadey cucco (the flight attendant)
Elle fanning (the great)
Catherine o hara (schitts creek)
Jane levy (zoeys extraordinary playlist)Best actress limited series
Cate blanchett (mrs america)
Micheala cole (I may destroy you)
Nicole kidman (the undoing)
Daisy edger jones (normal people)
Anna taylor joy (the queens gambit)Best actor drama
Nicco armin (p-valley)
Josh o’connor (the crown)
Pedro pascal (the mandalorian)
Matthew ryes (perry mason)
Anthony starr (the boys)Best actor musical or comedy
Ricky gervais (afterlife)
Nicholas hoult (the great)
John c reily (moonbase 8)
Jason sudakis (ted lasso)
Ramy yosseff (ramy)Best actor limited series
Brian cranston (your honor)
Hugh grant (the undoing)
Ethan hawke (the good lord bird)
Paul mescal (normal people)
Nick robinson (a teacher)Best supporting actress
Gillian anderson (the crown)
Noma dumezweni (the undoing)
Lauren graham (zoeys extraordinary playlist)
Marline heller (the queen’s gambit)
Hannah waddington (ted lasso)Best supporting actor
Mahershala ali (ramy)
Skyler astin (zoeys extraordinary playlist)
Daveed diggs (the good lord bird)
Branden gleeson (the comey rule)
Dan levy (schitts creek)But instead it came out ages ago, had its buzz ages ago and now most of the HFPA probably doesn’t remember his name.
Strongly disagree. I agree he may end up being ignored by the HFPA but it won’t be because his show has lost buzz when it is fourth on the Metacritic aggregate of the best shows of 2020, its two leads are getting cast in high profile film projects left right and centre and are doing none stop campaigning.
FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"
Began to questioning myself am i delusional enough to think that Fanning will even earn her nomination (let alone a win, which i still predict her to but whatsoever) after CC snub
To be honest until Fanning’s name isn’t called out on nominations morning I don’t think it’s delusional to predict her for a nomination. The same applies with Levy. I know I have raised my scepticism about some of the ladies in the Limited/Movie Actress race who were ignored by CC but we know that both Fanning and Levy weren’t that far off from nominations at CC because their co-stars made it in. If they miss it’s not going to be because of missing a CC nomination to Pamela Adlon.
FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"
Began to questioning myself am i delusional enough to think that Fanning will even earn her nomination (let alone a win, which i still predict her to but whatsoever) after CC snub
Not delusional. Her show doesn’t have the level of acclaim as The Queens Gambit, but I think Fanning has a very similar narrative to Taylor Joy in being young actors who have been acclaimed and visible for years, waiting for a project that awards bodies respond to more openly. I think she’s one of the safest in her category at GG.
A reminder of the attendees of October’s HFPA banquet:
– Christian Slater (Dirty John)
– Ethan Hawke (The Good Lord Bird)
– Jason Sudeikis (Ted Lasso)
– Rita Moreno (One Day at a Time)
– Anna Kendrick (Love Life)
– Awkwafina (Awkwafina is Nora From Queens)
– Daisy Edgar-Jones (Normal People)
– Jurnee Smollett (Lovecraft Country)
– Nicole Kidman (The Undoing)
– Paul Mescal (Normal People)
– Tracee Ellis Ross (Black-ish)Last year the attendees included Ben Platt and Ramy Youssef who both went on to get nominations.
FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"
Come through, Love Life!
Strongly disagree. I agree he may end up being ignored by the HFPA but it won’t be because his show has lost buzz when it is fourth on the Metacritic aggregate of the best shows of 2020, its two leads are getting cast in high profile film projects left right and centre and are doing none stop campaigning.
I wouldn’t say buzz is solely defined by critics lists and I doubt the HFPA are following the casting news of someone they can’t remember the name of
I honestly don’t know what to do with Comedy Actress.
After doing digging and finding out how much of a crossover there is between banquet attendees I want to slot both Awkwafina in but I don’t know who to take out. Cuoco feels safe and to an extent so does Fanning (her show is conventional HFPA bait, she’s done many of these events before and she’s a child of Hollywood). I also feel fairly confident in Collins. Maybe I drop Christina Applegate?
I also want to slot in Jane Levy. Not buying Kendrick thus far because as high profile her show was and as much campaigning she’s doing I am not buying that the HFPA double nominate HBO Max ladies in this category. This isn’t Phoebe Waller-Bridge and Rachel Brosnahan.
I wouldn’t say buzz is solely defined by critics lists
And neither am I. But to say his show has no buzz left is simply inaccurate considering how well it has held up in the metacritic aggregate for a show that aired in May.
I also disagree that the HFPA won’t remember who Mescal and his co-star’s names are. Perhaps they won’t care about how many high profile projects they are being cast in but as I mentioned in my post above both attended the HFPA banquet and as we’ve seen in the past that should not be something that’s ignored.
FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"
Hollywood is crazy for tender love stories starring white people, that’s why HFPA will probably nominate Paul Mescal just like how people are still not over Timothee Chalamet.
People keep saying shows don’t have buzz that competed at the emmys. Yes your right, I can’t think of a single show that competed at this years emmys that still has big buzz, but that doesn’t mean there going to be ignored at all the winter awards. Even Schitt’s lost most of its buzz after sweeping at the emmys.
FYC OSCARS
PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN in all categories (inc. CAREY MULLIGAN & Emerald Fennell in Screenplay)
THE FATHER in all categories (inc. Best Picture, ANTHONY HOPKINS, Olivia Colman & Adapted Screenplay)
Lo Si (Diane Warren) for Original Song
Chloe Zhao for Director
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