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Golden Globes TV Predictions (Part 4)

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    Couverture
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    #1203994119

    And neither am I. But to say his show has no buzz left is simply inaccurate considering how well it has held up in the metacritic aggregate for a show that aired in May. I also disagree that the HFPA won’t remember who Mescal and his co-star’s names are. Perhaps they won’t care about how many high profile projects they are being cast in but as I mentioned in my post above both attended the HFPA banquet and as we’ve seen in the past that should not be something that’s ignored.

    Both the leads of the show are getting cast in big projects and the show itself was one of the most mentioned alongside TQG and IMDY in that THR showrunners article. It is also one of the few shows that HFPA members stanned hard when it came out and that they occassionally tweeted about even after the Emmys and in fall. You’ve already mentioned how well it has held up with critics and exceeded expectations there. And most importantly, both leads are campaigning heavily to ensure they are on voters’ mind so being forgotten won’t certainly be an issue. At this point, if this show is forgotten and buzzless then I fear for any other pre-fall contender.

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    wolfali
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    #1203994158

    Both the leads of the show are getting cast in big projects and the show itself was one of the most mentioned alongside TQG and IMDY in that THR showrunners article.

    I agree. They both attended the HFPA’s banquet so I am sure at least some members of the organisation remember who they are.

    I’m a bit sceptical about its Series chances because the category seems quite competitive but if Normal People gets shut out it won’t be because it has run out of buzz. Not only has it done what’s already been mentioned but look at its presence online over the past 90 days in comparison to other spring contenders (Unorthodox is in red, Mrs. America is in yellow and Bad Education in green). The first image is how many times the show has been looked up internationally and the second is in the US. 

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    Couverture
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    #1203994170

    Just saying that it managed to be in the conversation as much as something like The Queen’s Gambit this past week…

    I think it’s pretty safe in all three categories it is competing in. The Emmys snubbing Daisy Edgar-Jones and the show in series makes it even likelier for the Globes to recognise all of them in my eyes.

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    wolfali
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    #1203994177

    Even if I think we may be overestimating some of these contenders’ chances of pulling an upset there is no denying that Limited/Movie Actress is stacked:

    – Cate Blanchett
    – Michaela Coel
    – Michelle Dockery
    – Daisy Edgar-Jones
    – Shira Haas
    – Zoe Kazan
    – Nicole Kidman
    – Kate Mara
    – Amanda Peet
    – Octavia Spencer
    – Yvonne Strahovski
    – Anya Taylor-Joy
    – Reese Witherspoon
    – Kerry Washington

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    puck05
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    #1203994199

    I feel like Lovecraft Country will follow Watchmen’s route and will compete in limited at Emmys since there isn’t any news about a second season.

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    wolfali
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    #1203994210

    That would mean HBO has four programmes competing in Limited Series at the Emmys (I May Destroy You, Lovecraft Country, Mare of Easttoown, The Undoing) and I’m not sure HBO would want to do that. I mean if The Nevers doesn’t air then they’ll have too much not their plate in limited (in that scenario) and like only <i>His Dark Materials</i>, IndustryPerry Mason and We Are Who We Are in Drama (with Mason probably being their only big show).

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    wolfali
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    #1203994240

    Steven Soderbergh has said he is a fan of <i>I May Destroy You </i>and Small Axe.

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    wolfali
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    #1203995285

    ngl I’d be quite happy if Anya won. I’m rooting for Michaela but I still found Anya’s performance to be excellent and it’s one of my favourites of the season (although admittedly both the performance and The Queen’s Gambit have been overhyped to such strange extremities so I am glad I caught them at the very beginning when they had low visibility) and it’s great to see her having a breakthrough and hopefully a long film career ahead of her (I can’t wait for <i>Last Night in SoHo</i>!) She was phenomenal in The Witch.

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    Jays
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    #1203995362

    I haven’t been on here in months, but I’ve still been watching TV obviously lol, so my thoughts on some of the shows I’ve watched this season.

    – Emma Corrin was a revelation in season 4 of The Crown and should deservedly win the Globe (if Linney isn’t nominated/loses) and the Emmy. I like her lead placement, she’s a star and should win the big prize. Anderson was fine as Thatcher, but struggled to translate beyond the physicality and voice required for the role. Colman was…there and HBC was underused but brilliant in her episode. O’Connor was amazing, as always.
    – Bridgerton was fun, but filled to the brim with cliches. I felt as though I could have outlined the entire season out myself, that’s how predictable and obvious the storylines were. They also should have made that artistic Bridgerton son gay. Coughlan was the standout. Bailey is hot lol.
    – The Flight Attendant was an absolute blast. Had so much fun with this one, I’m very happy it’s coming back for another season. Cuoco was sensational, and handled the tonal changes with ease. Deserves the Emmy, but have to root for O’Hara at the Globes. Mamet and Gomez were also great. Gomez and Cuoco have amazing chemistry.
    – Loved A Teacher. Still think about the final scene every so often. Kate Mara will unfortunately miss out on nominations all year, but she’s deserving of awards recognition. Amazing performance. Well written show.
    – The Undoing was ridiculous but insanely watchable. The finale was pretty riveting despite it being borderline nonsensical. Kidman’s been better, Grant and Sutherland had some brutal monologues they had to deliver. Such a poorly written show. Lily Rabe is a queen though.
    – Emily in Paris was fun as hell and I’m not afraid to say it. It’s not a good show, but it also is a good show lol? It doesn’t take itself seriously which is a good thing and it’s such an easy binge. Collins is very charming and very funny at times. Great male eye candy too.
    – The Queen’s Gambit is great. Not as passionate about it as a lot of the world seems to be, but it’s a very well made show. ATJ is brilliant. Chess could be thrilling, who knew!
    – Not sure how many people saw Industry, but I loooved it. Very raunchy and chaotic. Extremely entertaining. Herrold and Abela are terrific. Abela, in particular, is a star. Probably not for everyone, but it’s definitely for me.

    In the middle of watching Your Honor now, same with The Great. Need to get around to watching Ted Lasso and a couple of other shows.

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    forwardswill
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    #1203995537

    Jays, I could not agree more with almost everything you have said on the shows I’ve also watched. This feels like such a rare moment haha

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    mafro987
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    #1203995579

    Emily in Paris >>> Bridgerton. That’s how bad Bridgerton was for me.

    For Your Consideration:

    Best International Feature: Instinct (The Netherlands)
    Best Actress: Carice van Houten (Instinct)

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    wolfali
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    #1203995597

    Coughlan was the standout. Bailey is hot lol.

    Just quoting this piece of truth right here.

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    forwardswill
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    #1203995623

    LIMITED/TV MOVIE ACTRESS
    (ranked in order of perceived likelihood of nomination)

    1. Anya Taylor-Joy, The Queen’s Gambit – She’s getting in and she’s probably winning.

    ———————————————–

    2. Nicole Kidman, The Undoing – The HFPA love this woman and her show was the exact kind of popular trash they love to nominate (if not give victories to). Would be quite surprised if she missed, albeit not stunned. Hers was not the performance that many took away from the show.

    3. Shira Haas, Unorthodox – A European up and comer in a well-watched, Emmy-nominated Netflix hit. Again, I would be surprised to see her missed even as my confidence in the series itself wanes.

    4. Cate Blanchett, Mrs. America – The series held up much better across the year than it initially seemed to and Blanchett is a huge star giving a gargantuan performance. But the show never reached a level where it was exactly setting the world alight so there’s potential for a shutout. If the category was less competitive, she’d be locked.

    ———————————————–

    5. Michaela Coel, I May Destroy You – Could not be more acclaimed if she tried. But I am anxious that this show will not resonate with these voters. I hope I am wrong and currently think the shear volume of attention will be enough to get Coel in even if not the series itself. She is the only person who can beat Taylor-Joy.

    ———————————————–

    6. Kerry Washington, Little Fires Everywhere – The campaign never stops for her. And unlike at the Emmys, the soapy elements of this show aren’t really a limiting factor here. It is also a show that they will have bothered to watch and the seen the political resonance of. But I think there is a lack of drive to recognise it now and the fact that the two leads don’t need any kind of career boost makes me think the HFPA will choose to resist. Feels like a permanent sixth place.

    7. Amanda Peet, Dirty John – Connie Britton made it in for the first season and people definitely loved Peet’s performance more. Something about this show is just so Golden Globes. But this category is probably just about fierce enough to keep out something so random – and not talked about – this time round.

    8. Reese Witherspoon, Little Fires Everywhere – Huge star and we are absolutely underestimating her. Like Washington she loves a campaign. I think there’s a clear world where she is the show’s surprise sole nomination. Also, because it’s not said enough, she was fucking great. I still have her quite low though because I think Washington getting the Emmy nod ahead of her has shaped a narrative about which is the performance to reward if any. But who knows – maybe they both get in?

    ———————————————–

    9. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Normal People – Wouldn’t it just be such an Globes thing to happen for her to just suddenly get in here having missed at the Emmys? As mentioned previously, the show was hugely popular in Europe and she has a young starlet quality. But I think she is definitively behind Taylor-Joy, Haas and Coel and it would be unusual for them to go for four breakthroughs when they love big names.

    10. Kate Mara, A Teacher – I am just starting to see some traction for her in the past few days. My real question though is whether it has come too late seeing as voting has already ended. But they love new stuff and would probably enjoy getting to give Mara her moment.

    11. Octavia Spencer, Self Made – After that Emmy sleuthing, I do not like having her so low. Not one bit. There is such an affection for her and let’s not forget that the HFPA got the ball rolling on her Oscar nominations for both Hidden Figures and The Shape of Water when they certainly did not need to for either.

    NB: It may be seem because I have only listed 11 contenders for this category that I could see getting nominated that I do not really see this as a difficult field. But it is quite the opposite. This is the only category where I would not so much as shrug if any of the possible choices made it in. They are all incredibly competitive. If anyone else breaks through, my jaw will be on the floor.

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    wolfali
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    #1203995667

    7. Amanda Peet, Dirty John –

    10. Kate Mara, A Teacher –

    I am so  conflicted about these two. I feel less confident about their chances after their CC snubs (although I am certain Peet wasn’t very far behind because they clearly responded to the first season and Peet’s performance has more acclaim and passion) but they seem like such typical HFPA choice. Peet’s show is an 80s set show that has the type of campy over the top aesthetic the HFPA likes and appreciates and more importantly Peet’s performance stays with you after watching. I can see her being a nomination surprise. And Mara (whose show I only just begun watching)’s sister is a famous multi-Oscar nominated film star which can only help her.

    I currently have Peet in the fifth slot (even though as I’ve said I am sceptical after her CC snub even though I am a fan of her performance) because I have a feeling Shira Haas could pull a Jharrel Jerome and that the HFPA are not going to nominate two FX actresses (I am fairly confident Blanchett is making the cut). It also helps she’s only a different network (USA) in a field with 2 FX actresses, 3 Netflix actresses (5 if you count Strahovski and Pedretti), 2 HBO actresses and 3 Hulu actresses. What also helps is that both her and Slater have been campaigning and Slater (a HFPA favourite) was at their banquet and we saw what happened when Ben Platt, Beanie Feldstein, Taron Egerton, Renee Zellweger and Ramy Youssef were there last year.

    She is the only person who can beat Taylor-Joy.

    Absolutely agree with this. The passion for Coel seems quite raw and she’s the only person with as much individual buzz as Taylor-Joy. I am currently predicting her to beat Taylor-Joy at CC and I can see a situation where <i>The Queen’s Gambit </i>takes Series (and S. Actress à la Chernobyl) but Coel wins Actress. Maybe it’s because I’m on the fence about whether the HFPA are going to want to award Taylor-Joy for her mainstream breakthrough or whether they’ll look at how she’s going to be starring in three high profile awards films (Amsterdam, Last Night in SoHo, The Northman) in the next film awards season and wait to award her then. Although of course if Coel gets snubbed then Taylor-Joy is probably a near lock for the win.

    9. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Normal People –

    Another person who has been going in and out of my fifth slot. She’s been everywhere since the show finished airing and again she was one of the high profile attendees of the HFPA banquet.

    Octavia Spencer, Self Made

    I noticed Self-Made wasn’t listed as a Netflix priority so I felt safe ruling her out but was it a Netflix priority when she got nominated at the Emmys?

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    hopelesstar
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    #1203995680

    I have no idea what to do with Daisy Edgar-Jones and Normal People. The show probably had the biggest campaign out of the limited series spring contenders  (and maybe the biggest overall tbh) and Paul and Daisy are honestly quite thirsty (they even did a screening/commentary of the whole season for SAG).  Right now I’m considering removing Kidman for Daisy, considering I already have the former for The Prom and it’s a convenient way to nominate more people. The HFPA didn’t seem to be quite high on her performance either, with some tweeting she was just redoing Celeste.

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