Home Forums Television Has Chernobyl & When They See Us reached OJ/Big Little Lies/Versace territory?

Has Chernobyl & When They See Us reached OJ/Big Little Lies/Versace territory?

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  • montana82
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    #1202929687

    In this new voting system since 2016, when a miniseries hits BIG with loads of critical and commercial momentum, the performers branch usually votes that series to a sweep of all major categories.

    In 2016, OJ won Miniseries, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, and Writing. It had no Supporting actress candidates. Director was the only major loss. A blowout for OJ.

    In 2017, Big Little Lies won Miniseries, Actress, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, and Director. It had no Actor candidates. It lost only writing voted on by the quirky writers branch, not the performers. Another blowout for BLL.

    In 2018, Versace won Miniseries, Actor, and, Director. It lost for it’s supporting actor and actress candidates. Vote splitting and lack of consensus between the nominees may have doomed them in those categories. It should also be noted that while the reception of Versace was positive, it was not as wildly enthusiastic as OJ and BLL. Heck, some people even were thinking Criss might lose to Cumberbatch but the strength of Versace prevented that. Godless which won 2 acting awards was likely second to Versace.

    Anyways, let’s take a look at where we stand today. Goldderby is predicting True Detective for Actor, Escape at Dannemora for Actress, Sharp Objects for Supporting Actress, and A Very English Scandal for Supporting Actor.

    This goes against everything we have seen in this new voting system especially with the performers branch. Usually 1 or 2 at the most series dominate the acting categories due to their popular strength with the performers branch. It appears the HFPA results last January under a very different field of contenders is highly influencing the “Experts”.

    Do you think Chernobyl and/or When they See Us has reached the potential to sweep many of it’s actors to wins like OJ, Big Little Lies, and Versace? Based on my eyes and ears they seem to be doing just that with the buzz. Is Goldderby currently way off base in it’s odds and predictions? Are Jared Harris/Jharrel Jerome in Actor, Niecy Nash in Actress, Emily Watson/Vera Farmiga in Supp Actress, and Michael K. Williams/Stellan Skaarsgard being severely underestimated?

    I think the above answers are all a clear yes. The nominations will be telling.

    • This topic was modified 3 months, 2 weeks ago by  Andrea.

    "Here's a wonderfully b*tchy post from Montana82...." - Tom O'Neill Emmy Prediction Slugfest August 1st, 2019

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    Luca
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    #1202929693

    Maybe Versace level, but I’m not sure they’ve reached O.J. or BLL levels yet. And that’s not because or their quality of popularity but their timing. Both O.J. and BLL started in early February and concluded sometime in April/May, which gave them enough space to build up momentum, but not too much to allow them to fall out of the conversation. I think it’ll be pretty hard to reach the popularity of BLL and O.J. tbh, but if any shows do it, then WTSU and Chernobyl.

    Emmy voters must bend the knee to Lena Headey & Emilia Clarke for "Game of Thrones." It's their last chance to award them. Make it happen.

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    Mukund
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    #1202929703

    Chernobyl has for sure. The reason it is not the top contender in any acting category is because of its late release date and the fact that the actors don’t have baity material like OJ/BLL.

    WTSU just premiered. It has the acclaim but I’m not sure it’ll enjoy the same level of popularity as the above mentioned shows.

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    ginnala
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    #1202929705

    Well this year is different compared to the ones in which OJ/BLL won because there are GG/SAG etc. winners eligible at the Emmys.

    Just for actress, when Sarah Paulson won the Emmy, the Golden Globe winner of the year was Lady Gaga. The year Nicole Kidman won, Sarah Paulson got the GG for OJ and therefore wasn’t competing at the same emmys.

    This year we have actors such as Patricia Arquette and Clarkson eligible for The Emmys while they have already won previous awards for the role. So that basically could limit a sweep for Chernobyl or WTSU in acting categories, at least according to our predictions.

    I don’t know if I made myself clear but the timeline makes things different, imo.

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    TVFan365
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    #1202929707

    I guess it also depends on your own personal social circle. I feel like everyone I know has seen “When They See Us” compared to any of those other shows you mentioned.

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    montana82
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    #1202929725

    Does everyone think the Miniseries race will boil down to Chernobyl and When They See Us once nominations are announced?

    And if yes, does anyone think both of these shows will not win a single acting category?

    That would be unprecedented. For the 4 acting categories to be won by neither of the 2 frontrunners for Series? In fact it would seem to be improbable.

    "Here's a wonderfully b*tchy post from Montana82...." - Tom O'Neill Emmy Prediction Slugfest August 1st, 2019

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    ginnala
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    #1202929727

    Does everyone think the Miniseries race will boil down to Chernobyl and When They See Us once nominations are announced?

    And if yes, does anyone think both of these shows will not win a single acting category?

    That would be unprecedented. For the 4 acting categories to be won by neither of the 2 frontrunners for Series? In fact it would seem to be improbable.

    I’m guessing both could get actor. Niecy Nash is not winning and I don’t think Chernobyl has a lead actress, that’s already one award they won’t win.

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    eastwest
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    #1202929733

    They’re definitely the top two contenders. And late releases at that. That narrative of late releases not making an impact should be retired. Now for things released early . . .

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    methaddiction
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    #1202929735

    Patricia Arquette is most likely a lock Amy’s not winning and I don’t see Michelle winning either.

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    montana82
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    I appreciate the feedback. It’s still early and when nominations come out things will likely change. But coming to GDerby and staring at some of these out of whack odds was making my head spin so I’m glad to know I wasn’t the only one doubting what I was seeing.

    As was said above, neither Chernobyl (no lead actress) or WTSU (Nash is supporting) will win Lead Actress. That race will certainly come down to Williams vs Arquette.

    So it would have to be Lead Actor, Supporting Actor, and Supporting Actress where Chernobyl and When They See Us can get their wins.

    Most likely would have to be Lead Actor. True Detective will not even be up for Miniseries so no way is Ali winning. Jharrel Jerome has the big emotional episode 4 and Jared Harris is a respected actor that TV voters will know from Mad Men. I think one of them will win.

    Supporting Actor and Actress are also fluid and could be wide open. It is 50/50 whether Sharp Objects and A Very English Scandal will be up for Miniseries. If they miss it could doom Whishaw and Clarkson. Both shows came out a while ago and the buzz is dropping with each passing day. Clarkson may also suffer from co-star vote split if Scanlen makes it. I don’t see Vera Farmiga winning because voters will be hesitant to reward the white prosecutor role. But I see no reason Watson may not win that category as the Chernobyl acting win. I think Michael K. Williams will be a strong threat to Whishaw in Supporting Actor and Williams American TV pedigree (Nominee for Bessie and The Night Of, The Wire, Boardwalk Empire) and Whishaw’s lack of one may tip it to Williams.

    I could see it going like this to make everyone happy:

    Chernobyl- Miniseries, Directing, Writing, and Supporting Actress
    When they See Us- Actor and Supporting Actor
    Escape from Dannemora or Fosse/Verdon- Actress

    "Here's a wonderfully b*tchy post from Montana82...." - Tom O'Neill Emmy Prediction Slugfest August 1st, 2019

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    sofan
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    I’m taking IMDb and online talk as the basis for popularity comparison.

    Big Little Lies: It has been more than 2 years since it first aired, and its second season premieres tonight. It has a total of 105k votes on IMDb and a total of 250(surprising tbh) user reviews there.

    American Crime Story: It has been more than 3 years since it premiered. Both of its seasons are combined on IMDb, and the show has a total of 67k votes and 133 user reviews there.

    compared to

    When They See Us: 10 days since its premiere, a total of 9k votes and 221 user reviews.

    Chernobyl: A little over a month since it premiered. It took the world by storm and the show is already #1 on IMDb’s top 250. It has almost 200k votes (more than BLL and ACS combined) and a total of 1861 user reviews. And to be honest it keeps gaining momentum due to social media/word-of-mouth.

    So when it comes to popularity, Chernobyl actually exceeds pretty much all the previous juggernauts. To compare, Band of Brothers has 322k user votes despite airing almost 20 years ago.

    Among this year’s contenders, The Haunting of Hill House is the closest to Chernobyl with 116k votes and 1850 user reviews.

    But this popularity could all end up like True Detective, which has 443k user votes (and let’s face it most of it is for season 1 so it is actually comparable) and 669 user reviews.

    TL;DR: Popularity wise Chernobyl is on unprecedented levels, but what will it mean for Emmys is anyone’s guess.

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