How Did GoldDerby Do? (Emmys 2018)

[Malinda KaoParticipant Joined: Mar 2nd, 2018 Topics: 1 Posts: 63 View Predictions]

#1202635539

Is it okay if I create this? Here’s a place to discuss how well GD predicted (or didn’t predict) the winners for the 70th Primetime Emmy Awards.

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[RileyKeymaster Joined: Oct 11th, 2010 Topics: 115 Posts: 13849 View Predictions]

#1202635542

The odds predicted Atlanta and The Handmaid’s Tale to win the series awards and they were both shut out. That is how Gold Derby did.

"I don't even believe in god, but I'm going to thank her tonight."

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[Diet TeridaxParticipant Joined: Dec 12th, 2014 Topics: 92 Posts: 12189 View Predictions]

#1202635549

Goldderby combined odds got 14/26 winners correct. I got 16/26 winners correct. That’s about all I have to say regarding this topic.

For your Goldderby Film Awards consideration: Isle of Dogs for every category, especially Music Score for Alexandre Desplat!

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[Malinda KaoParticipant Joined: Mar 2nd, 2018 Topics: 1 Posts: 63 View Predictions]

#1202635577

So here’s what I have after I looked at the combined predictions. Let me know if you think things are in the wrong categories.

Overestimated:
Atlanta (3 predicted wins, 0 actual wins)
The Handmaid’s Tale (4 predicted wins, 0 actual wins)

Underestimated: 
The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (2 predicted wins, 5 actual wins)
The Crown (0 predicted wins, 2 actual wins)
Game of Thrones (0 predicted wins, 2 actual wins)

Pretty Close: 
Barry (1 predicted win, 2 actual wins)
Saturday Night Live (2 predicted wins, 1 actual win)
Stranger Things (1 predicted win, 0 actual wins)
The Americans (1 predicted win, 2 actual wins)
Westworld (0 predicted wins, 1 actual win)
The Assassination of Gianni Versace (4 predicted wins, 3 actual wins)
Godless (1 predicted win, 2 actual wins)
Seven Seconds (0 predicted wins, 1 actual win)
John Mulaney (0 predicted wins, 1 actual win)

On the Money: 
Black Mirror (1 predicted win, 1 actual win)
RuPaul’s Drag Race (1 predicted win, 1 actual win)
Last Week Tonight with John Oliver (1 predicted win, 1 actual win)
The Oscars (1 predicted win, 1 actual win)

Trends: vote-splitting is definitely a factor that GD didn’t properly account for

• This reply was modified 4 weeks, 1 day ago by  Malinda Kao.

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[Diet TeridaxParticipant Joined: Dec 12th, 2014 Topics: 92 Posts: 12189 View Predictions]

#1202635594

Malinda Kao wrote:

So here’s what I have after I looked at the combined predictions. Let me know if you think things are in the wrong categories.

Overestimated:
Atlanta (3 predicted wins, 0 actual wins)
The Handmaid’s Tale (4 predicted wins, 0 actual wins)

Underestimated:
The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (2 predicted wins, 5 actual wins)
The Crown (0 predicted wins, 2 actual wins)
Game of Thrones (0 predicted wins, 2 actual wins)

Pretty Close:
Barry (1 predicted win, 2 actual wins)
Saturday Night Live (2 predicted wins, 1 actual win)
Stranger Things (1 predicted win, 0 actual wins)
The Americans (1 predicted win, 2 actual wins)
Westworld (0 predicted wins, 1 actual win)
The Assassination of Gianni Versace (4 predicted wins, 3 actual wins)
Godless (1 predicted win, 2 actual wins)
Seven Seconds (0 predicted wins, 1 actual win)
John Mulaney (0 predicted wins, 1 actual win)

On the Money:
Black Mirror (1 predicted win, 1 actual win)
RuPaul’s Drag Race (1 predicted win, 1 actual win)
Last Week Tonight with John Oliver (1 predicted win, 1 actual win)
The Oscars (1 predicted win, 1 actual win)

Trends: vote-splitting is definitely a factor that GD didn’t properly account for

I considered vote-splitting for This Is Us and to a lesser extent Atlanta in Directing and got those right but I failed to predict Versace and THT in their Supporting Actress races getting crushed. These all look like they were in the right categories, well done here Malinda.

For your Goldderby Film Awards consideration: Isle of Dogs for every category, especially Music Score for Alexandre Desplat!

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[RileyKeymaster Joined: Oct 11th, 2010 Topics: 115 Posts: 13849 View Predictions]

#1202635597

I think that vote-splitting was all over the place this year. The applause for Milo Ventimiglia was louder than that for Matthew Rhys, so I suspect that it was vote-splitting that resulted in that. Game of Thrones impressively got multiple nominations for directing and editing, then won series, so I think that vote-splitting cost it those two categories. A lot less sure about it, but it might have led to the Godless supporting sweep over American Crime Story. Conversely, it might have been what cost Ryan Murphy last time for the same show. Similarly, that Peter Dinklage won all of these years later supports that Kit Harington cost him the win to Ben Mendelsohn. I do not think that vote-splitting cost Atlanta anything. Given the Samira Wiley win, its incumbent status, its triple nominations and that it has an actual history of winning at the main telecast unlike Westworld, vote-splitting seems to have cost The Handmaid’s Tale in supporting actress.

"I don't even believe in god, but I'm going to thank her tonight."

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[Malinda KaoParticipant Joined: Mar 2nd, 2018 Topics: 1 Posts: 63 View Predictions]

#1202635674

Would you guys say that predicting repeat winners brought down GD’s overall accuracy? I’m wondering if that’s also a trend that might not apply as much anymore.

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[Diet TeridaxParticipant Joined: Dec 12th, 2014 Topics: 92 Posts: 12189 View Predictions]

#1202635680

Malinda Kao wrote:

Would you guys say that predicting repeat winners brought down GD’s overall accuracy? I’m wondering if that’s also a trend that might not apply as much anymore.

I would say yes. I was lucky enough thanks to advice / info from my friend WilfredPickles to only predict 2 repeats. I played it super conservative there and feel great for having only done that few. People thought there would be like 90% repeats and I was rolling my eyes. Just go with where the passion is at, regardless of other nominations and regardless of who wins what other year. That’s how I predicted Foy, Rhys, and The Americans in Writing. Just go with the passionate flow.

For your Goldderby Film Awards consideration: Isle of Dogs for every category, especially Music Score for Alexandre Desplat!

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[AayaanUpadhyayaParticipant Joined: Dec 15th, 2011 Topics: 13 Posts: 1569 View Predictions]

#1202635775

Riley wrote:

Given the Samira Wiley win, its incumbent status, its triple nominations and that it has an actual history of winning at the main telecast unlike Westworld, vote-splitting seems to have cost The Handmaid’s Tale in supporting actress.

It surely hurt, but I also feel like Fiennes and especially Moss losing without a co-star – not to mention THT losing series, writing AND directing – makes me feel like that there was also a lack of support that probably pushed someone like Newton to take this. I won’t be surprised if Kirby and Heady came 2nd and 3rd.

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