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How did the "experts" get Chernobyl vs When They See Us so wrong?

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    montana82
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    Weeks ago, I called attention to what I considered simply inexplicable behavior amongst awards pundits not just at Goldderby but other sites like AW and THR. They nearly unanimously were predicting that WTSU had it in the bag for Limited Series.

    It was one thing to think WTSU might win Limited Series and for it to turn out to be incorrect. That’s normal and happens to all of us. It’s an entirely different thing to completely diminish, ignore, and downplay what on paper was looking like the clear winner all season.

    Example, on August 14th, nearly a month after nominations were announced, and more than a week after Chernobyl won program of the year at TCA, Scott Feinberg had Chernobyl in THIRD place behind WTSU AND the rapidly fading Dannemora. He had Jared Harris in FIFTH place (!!!),

    https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/lists/feinberg-forecast-2019-emmy-predictions-1231531/item/limited-series-1231558

    Make no mistake about it. Chernobyl was never ever ever in third place at any point. Ever. It had the reviews, ratings, buzz, and quality. I will never forget reading that and I knew right than and there something fishy was going on this season. You’d expect an Erik Anderson with his Exonerated Five t-shirt he would wear to be biased. But many usual neutral pundits were also similarly gung ho for WTSU and dismissive of Chernobyl. Even the most no nonsense of them all, my hero Riley Chow, went against his instincts. This faux atmosphere that was created caused many people to drop Chernobyl and go all in on WTSU sweeping Limited Series, Directing, and Writing.

    Even than it’s normal to let emotions cloud reality. But still, even after Chernobyl won 7 Creative Arts, with these same branches getting to vote for Limited Series, the experts wouldn’t budge off of When They See Us. Even when the cake was baked. Just watch Chris and Tom’s last video before the Emmys on the GDerby youtube channel. A Chernobyl win wasn’t even a possibility. WTSU was “too timely”.

    Well they were all wrong. In spectacular fashion. We all get it wrong every year in a number of races. But this was more than getting it wrong. Many of them were wishcasting, not forecasting. Were they afraid to go against WTSU? Did Netflix cast a spell over them?

    I believe Joyce Eng was one of the few if any pundits that never budged off Chernobyl. She deserves the praise for that. The atmosphere all season on this race was bizarre and for Eng to cut through the BS and get it right deserves special kudos. Same with Pete Hammond who pretty much told Tom in their last video that Chernobyl would win because WTSU wasn’t as good. A rare and last minute moment of clarity. Too bad we got it so late in the race.

    • This topic was modified 12 months ago by Andrea.
    • This topic was modified 12 months ago by Andrea.

    "Here's a wonderfully b*tchy post from Montana82...." - Tom O'Neill Emmy Prediction Slugfest August 1st, 2019

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    mafro987
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    I preferred When They See Us and predicted Chernobyl so you can’t really put it down to bias or favouritism. After the Creative Arts everyone should’ve switched to Chernobyl. It was obviously winning at that point. The experts and editors got it wrong primarily due to a combination of discounting the political relevance of Chernobyl (it’s just as political as WTSU), and being wooed by Netflix’s massive campaign. Obviously some other factors affected the misdirection though.

    For Your Consideration:

    Best International Feature: Instinct (The Netherlands)
    Best Actress: Carice van Houten (Instinct)

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    Brayden Fitzsimmons
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    Other reasons include

    • more “prestige-y” (Ava DuVernay vs writer of Hangover).

    • more American story (ingoraning the foreign & British voting block).

    • Chernobyl caused international foreign debate and impact (Tourist selfies, relocated of affected wildlife, banned by Putin, etc).

    • populist vs critics (look at IMDB review numbers for the two).

    • WTSU being more respected than liked (How many ballots did we see that said they couldn’t finish it).

    • support of the technical branches. Chernobyl even got a nomination for f***ing costumes.

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    Mukund
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    I think what’s more frustrating is that the atmosphere of WTSU being unbeatable that these people created has made the loss worse for those who were rooting for it and I’ve even seen some people lash out at Chernobyl and bring race as an issue in this conversation, which is disappointing because both shows are so much more than their political aspects.

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    DvirBA
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    It’s the same old habit of confusing the Emmys with the Golden Globes / Oscars… The GG and Oscars vote with the ‘Social Message’ in mind, the Emmys tend to do that less frequently.

    Not to say WTSU is not good, but I think a lot of the people predicted it for it’s ‘importance’ and relevancy while Chernobyl (imo) is the much better show overall

    Succession for Outstanding Drama Series, Emmys 2020

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    LaChienne
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    Chernobyl even got a nomination for f***ing costumes.

    tbh, after reading about the insane level of effort they took for the attention to detail/accuracy with period-appropriate costume design I’m honestly not surprised by this.

    As for OP, I had Chernobyl winning for a long time but switched it out at the last minute after getting spooked by the stat that casting + directing = limited series win, and I predicted Ava to win directing. But to place Chernobyl third after even its first episode was a massive success or consider it even not competitive is an embarrassing oversight especially from an “expert.” IMO it really was down to what was considered to be more “timely” even though Chernobyl’s relevance was quite clear from the series itself, much less from creator interviews plainly stating what it represents.

    I do consider it kind of disappointing that this was one of the few years that we’ve had an all-around outstanding limited category in series and acting and some people can’t handle two good shows facing off, one always has to be secretly terrible and shite I guess.

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    nevkm
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    Because most of them are living in their own bubble refusing to see the bigger picture. They all thought WTSU is more timely but Chernobyl is very relevant and important especially now when there’s this global war on truth.

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    kellis
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    The experts are hardly experts. It was so obviously winning when it won over Game of Thrones at the Creative Arts. I predicted Chernobyl the entire time until I had literal last second jitters yesterday because of the casting win lol (what an idiot I am).

    “No user starts this shady” - someone culturally relevant.

    Also got banned because...reasons? So, I guess ciao.

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    mafro987
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    The experts are hardly experts. It was so obviously winning when it won over Game of Thrones at the Creative Arts. I predicted Chernobyl the entire time until I had literal last second jitters yesterday because of the casting win lol (what an idiot I am).

    Exactly. Don’t look further than the threads on this forum for detailed and accurate predicting because the experts on other sites often have uninformed takes.

    For Your Consideration:

    Best International Feature: Instinct (The Netherlands)
    Best Actress: Carice van Houten (Instinct)

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    Pulp
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    #1203098531

    I believe Joyce Eng was one of the few if any pundits that never budged off Chernobyl

    You can always count of Joyce. She’s by far the best goldderby editor.

    #FreeTheBannedFour

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    lorelei lor
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    You can always count of Joyce. She’s by far the best goldderby editor.

    Remember the GD awards when the other editors were shocked/surprised she’s predicting Chernobyl? ‘Really?’ lmao

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    Brayden Fitzsimmons
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    Because they always fall for the media buzz. A Star is Born 2.0

    Glenn Close seems more a apt comparison, everyone thinks they’ll win (Close/WTSU) while ignoring all the evidence that says the main competition and more artfully made with a British / Foreign voting block (Colman/Chernobyl) says otherwise

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    jez89
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    Because a lot of these “experts” are idiots and just choose their favourite rather than the show or series that is actually the best. They don’t look at the bigger picture and try to write their own narrative, while wildly overestimating their importance. I too was astonished at some many supposed experts going for WTSU. Joyce is fantastic and is always interesting to listen to.

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    sofan
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    I think there are two possible explanations a) they personally fell for the emotional manipulation of WTSU, and assumed everyone else would too, or b) they’ve been encouraged by Netflix to put the show out front while doing the opposite to Chernobyl so WTSU would look competitive enough for a win against the juggernaut that Chernobyl was. I think the former is more likely to be the correct answer.

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