Lead Actor in a Drama Series: Firsts and Lasts

[DS0816Participant Joined: Sep 15th, 2011 Topics: 19 Posts: 647 View Predictions]

#1202449159

A pattern has taken hold in the Emmys category Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series.

Since 2011, the winner has been someone for the first or the last season of his respective series:

• 2011: Kyle Chandler, Friday Night Lights (DirecTV/NBC) — Last
• 2012: Damian Lewis, Homeland (Showtime) — First
• 2013: Jeff Daniels, The Newsroom (HBO) — First
• 2014: Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad (AMC) — Last
• 2015: Jon Hamm, Mad Men (AMC) — Last
• 2016: Rami Malek, Mr. Robot (USA) — First
• 2017: Sterling K. Brown, This Is Us (NBC) — First

If this pattern continues, my feeling with 2018 is the winner will end up being, for a given series’ premiere season, Freddie Highmore in The Good Doctor (ABC).

Does anyone have any theories why this has played out?

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[EdenParticipant Joined: Jun 7th, 2016 Topics: 13 Posts: 1319 View Predictions]

#1202449168

You’re just giving me hope for a Matthew Rhys win next year.

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[Anonymous Joined: Jan 1st, 1970 Topics: 55 Posts: 2986 View Predictions]

#1202449177

Does this pattern help Bateman to win? He is the only contender with a first or last season that got a SAG nomination. Maybe someone will come along the second half though. I’m rooting for Jason Mitchell for The Chi. I’ve only seen the pilot and I’m not sure if he’ll go lead or supporting.

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[hats-offParticipant Joined: Jun 19th, 2015 Topics: 3 Posts: 153 View Predictions]

#1202449348

This is a pretty neat and interesting trend, but each of those performers had other specific unique circumstances that lead to their wins (albeit buzz surrounding a final season or dazzling debut certainly helped).

Unless Rhys is absolutely undeniable (which isn’t likely since his performance is usually quiet) there wont really be any final season contenders. Additionally, all of the freshman season contenders like Bateman and Highmore don’t have the kind of media frenzy buzz that surrounded the performances Malek and Brown consistently for an entire year. (Not including Daniels or Lewis since the tape system is a different beast)

Unless something huge (like handmaids tale level) debuts this spring, I expect either Malek or Brown to win their second with Rhys as a boy-can-dream Longshot dark horse.

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[sofanParticipant Joined: Oct 1st, 2016 Topics: 1 Posts: 1334 View Predictions]

#1202449350

James Franco winning his Emmy confirmed.

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[Anonymous Joined: Jan 1st, 1970 Topics: 55 Posts: 2986 View Predictions]

#1202449370

sofan wrote:

James Franco winning his Emmy confirmed.

He missed SAG to Bateman.

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[sofanParticipant Joined: Oct 1st, 2016 Topics: 1 Posts: 1334 View Predictions]

#1202449380

Anonymous wrote:

He missed SAG to Bateman.

Does not matter.

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[Anonymous Joined: Jan 1st, 1970 Topics: 55 Posts: 2986 View Predictions]

#1202449381

sofan wrote:

Hunter-ish wrote:

He missed SAG to Bateman.

Does not matter.

Franco couldn’t even get a Globe nomination and The Deuce has been underperforming. I doubt he gets nominated.

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[bossParticipant Joined: Aug 14th, 2016 Topics: 4 Posts: 410 View Predictions]

#1202449384

According to this trend Kevin Spacey would have easily won though we all know what happened.

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[DS0816Participant Joined: Sep 15th, 2011 Topics: 19 Posts: 647 View Predictions]

#1202636303

It turns out the pattern held..

Eden should be happy with the result.

The winner of the 2017–18 Emmy for outstanding lead actor in a drama series: Matthew Rhys, The Americans (FX).

The winning performance is for a series’ last season.

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[flv4466Participant Joined: Sep 18th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 30 View Predictions]

#1202636304

Eden wrote:

You’re just giving me hope for a Matthew Rhys win next year.

 

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[EdenParticipant Joined: Jun 7th, 2016 Topics: 13 Posts: 1319 View Predictions]

#1202636316

DS0816 wrote:

Eden should be happy with the result.

Oh, I am.

I wanna hear early predictions for next year based on this theory. Kit Harington and Rami Malek will compete for their final season. Sean Penn won’t be nominated, but looking forward to seeing someone new.

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[Hunter-ishParticipant Joined: Aug 23rd, 2018 Topics: 1 Posts: 149 View Predictions]

#1202636332

I swear I will cry of happiness if Malek can get back in and win.

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[AayaanUpadhyayaParticipant Joined: Dec 15th, 2011 Topics: 13 Posts: 1563 View Predictions]

#1202636665

I think the Acting Branch not liking Game of Thrones apart from their irrational love for Dinklage is why I won’t be predicting Harrington – though he is definitely getting nominated.

It’s exciting to see who will win this next year, as Brown is not winning again for This is Us and Rhys is ineligible.

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[MukundParticipant Joined: May 27th, 2018 Topics: 3 Posts: 630 View Predictions]

#1202636666

AayaanUpadhyaya wrote:

I think the Acting Branch not liking Game of Thrones apart from their irrational love for Dinklage is why I won’t be predicting Harrington – though he is definitely getting nominated. It’s exciting to see who will win this next year, as Brown is not winning again for This is Us and Rhys is ineligible.

Maybe Odenkirk pulls through this time.

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