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Limited and Movie Predictions (Part 2)

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    puck05
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    #1203406650

    Ever since Fargo S1 won miniseries, the miniseries victory race has been one year FX and the other year HBO. So this year I’m expecting Mrs. America to win.

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    jacob121
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    #1203406652

    Anything sci-fi is consistently under-predicted on the forums as it doesn’t align as closely with the majority of users’ tastes (see: Westworld).

    Watchmen is the frontrunner pure and simple.

    It ran the board in the most important guilds in the more competitive drama category (nominations at WGA, PGA, DGA, and SAG with wins at WGA and DGA), was critically lauded (placed #2 on critics lists last year overall), culturally important, and a ratings hit. Not to mention it has HBO pushing it as their likely top choice and stars a three time Emmy winner.

    • This reply was modified 2 months ago by jacob121.
    • This reply was modified 2 months ago by jacob121.
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    Bee
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    #1203406655

    I’m honestly not sure that Watchmen is quite the frontrunner everyone thinks it is. The Emmys like fantasy and genre stuff in drama (and in comedy to an extent), but they’ve never really fully gone for that kind of “weird” thing in limited. Twin Peaks, Maniac, and The Haunting of Hill House all had other things going wrong for them, but they got more praise and public love than a lot of the other nominees in their respective years. For how much the Emmys used to love American Horror Story, they still never gave it a prize for series, writing, or directing. Black Mirror seems to be the only “weird” thing they’ve really gunned for (but then again, most of its prizes are in TV Movie, which has become something of a joke in the past few years). I’m not saying Watchmen is going to be completely snubbed, because I think it’ll do well in nominations. It feels safe for series, writing, directing, and King. However, I don’t see it being the frontrunner to win series. It just feels too weird and genre for the TV Academy, who usually goes for more true story or real-life stuff in this category. Now that we’ve seen the reviews, I feel pretty confident in saying that Mrs America is going to take this one.

    Valid concerns but I think your comparisons are off. Maniac was a cerebral, distant and cold miniseries that never took off in popularity and failed to even get Emma Stone major traction beyond a SAG nod. It went as soon as it came. The Haunting of Hill House was straight up horror that was never going to be taken seriously since there was no standout praise for any individual actors (ala what AHS had in its favor) or writing or directing.

    AHS was much too campy for the voters to actually reward. It was also never a critical favorite anyways as Watchmen has more acclaim for it’s one season than anything AHS has produced. I think the closest you’ve hit hit here was probably Twin Peaks but again, Watchmen has actually had wins at DGA and WGA, something vital that none of the others have done.

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    mafro987
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    #1203406657

    Anything sci-fi is consistently under-predicted on the forums as it doesn’t align as closely with the majority of users’ tastes (see: Westworld).

    Watchmen is the frontrunner pure and simple.

    It ran the board in the most important guilds in the more competitive drama category (nominations at WGA, PGA, DGA, and SAG with wins at WGA and DGA), was critically lauded (could easily end up in the top spot on critics lists from the year), culturally important, and a ratings hit. Not to mention it has HBO pushing it as their likely top choice and stars a three time Emmy winner.

    It landed on last years critics lists, finishing second to Fleabag (ahead of Succession) for 2019’s most acclaimed shows.

    I fully expect it to perform similarly to Chernobyl: 3 to 4 acting nominations (lower than Mrs America and Hollywood), but dominating directing, writing and a fair share of the techs.

    For Your Consideration:

    Best International Feature: Instinct (The Netherlands)
    Best Actress: Carice van Houten (Instinct)

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    hopelesstar
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    #1203406674

    People have been too confident in Watchmen for a while. It aired too early and as acclaimed and recent shows like Mrs America (and possibly Hollywood) can definitely still its thunder.

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    jacob121
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    #1203406682

    @mafro987

    Thanks – corrected my post.

    It aired too early

    This is only an issue for series that lack a cultural footprint. Watchmen is not in danger of being forgotten.

    • This reply was modified 2 months ago by jacob121.
    • This reply was modified 2 months ago by jacob121.
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    boss
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    #1203406898

    What happened to  Showtime’s The Good Lord Bird? They postponed its February date and we haven’t heard anything since then.

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    marcus_emn
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    #1203406915

    I’m honestly not sure that Watchmen is quite the frontrunner everyone thinks it is. The Emmys like fantasy and genre stuff in drama (and in comedy to an extent), but they’ve never really fully gone for that kind of “weird” thing in limited. Twin Peaks, Maniac, and The Haunting of Hill House all had other things going wrong for them, but they got more praise and public love than a lot of the other nominees in their respective years. For how much the Emmys used to love American Horror Story, they still never gave it a prize for series, writing, or directing. Black Mirror seems to be the only “weird” thing they’ve really gunned for (but then again, most of its prizes are in TV Movie, which has become something of a joke in the past few years).

    I think we can all agree that Fargo can be considered “weird”

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    Heptapod
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    #1203406928

    Fargo is weird, but it’s still very set in our real world with characters that are mostly normal people. Yeah, there are psychopaths and weird killers, but no costumed superheroes or sentient computers or Sarah Paulsons with two heads.

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    boss
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    #1203406948

    I’m honestly not sure that Watchmen is quite the frontrunner everyone thinks it is. The Emmys like fantasy and genre stuff in drama (and in comedy to an extent), but they’ve never really fully gone for that kind of “weird” thing in limited. Twin Peaks, Maniac, and The Haunting of Hill House all had other things going wrong for them, but they got more praise and public love than a lot of the other nominees in their respective years. For how much the Emmys used to love American Horror Story, they still never gave it a prize for series, writing, or directing. Black Mirror seems to be the only “weird” thing they’ve really gunned for (but then again, most of its prizes are in TV Movie, which has become something of a joke in the past few years).

    I don’t think such a thing like “weirdness” applies to shows. In the case of Twin Peaks, I don’t know how many voters today have watched the initial 30 hourlong episodes of it that almost aired twenty years ago, let alone watch its 18 new episodes. Maniac wasn’t weird, it was poorly paced and written that it wasn’t interesting. Unfortunately, voters weren’t exposed to The Haunting of Hill House at the first place to give it at least a try. Netflix just focused on When They See Us.

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    Luca
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    #1203407476

    I think we need to appreciate how we’ll probably have Unbelievable and Mrs. America in the limited series race – two female-dominated shows, and we already know the former is stellar (I think most people agree on this). It’s such a great time for limited series on TV, and I’m thankful we’re getting quality content like this. I’ve always been more drawn to female-led shows, merely because I don’t find male characters as interesting anymore. Of course there are many exceptions, but I feel like writers have dropped the ball on many of them and are just writing them so blandly.

    Emmys FYC - "Unbelievable" and "The Handmaid's Tale" in all categories; Viola Davis in Best Drama Actress for the final season of "HTGAWM;" "Ozark:" Drama Series, Laura Linney (Best Actress) and Julia Garner (Best Supporting Actress)

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    Carlo
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    #1203407480

    To me, it’s becoming impossible to envision a scenario where limited supporting actress doesn’t receive more than 6 nomination slots. People are going to be checking off several Mrs America/Hollywood actresses, and then Smart and Collette (maybe even Leo) will have passionate support behind them.

    It’s more competitive than the comedy supporting actress race last year which received 8 nomination slots.

    I totally agree.

    I also would not understimate Oscar winner Emmy magnet Allison Janney for her critical acclaimed work in Bad Education. That could be an easy check for them. There are so many contenders I could even imagine Collette snubbed.

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    Gabarnes43
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    #1203407571

    Hollywood- (19 Limited Series, Lead Actor x2, Supporting Actor x4, Supporting Actress, Writing, Directing, Casting, Cinematography, Costumes, Hairstyling, Makeup, Music Composition, Editing, Production Design, Sound Mixing

    Watchmen- (19) Limited Series, Lead Actress, Writing, Directing x2, Casting, Cinematography, Costumes, Hairstyling, Makeup, Music Supervision, Music Composition, Editing x2, Production Design, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Supporting Visual Effects, Stunts

    Mrs America- (18) Limited Series, Lead Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress x4, Writing, Directing, Casting, Cinematography, Costumes, Hairstyling, Makeup, Music Composition, Editing, Production Design, Sound Mixing

    Little Fires Everywhere- (8) Lead Actress x2, Casting, Cinematography, Costumes, Sound Editing, Supporting Visual Effects, Stunts

    Unbelievable- (8) Limited Series, Lead Actress x2. Supporting Actress, Writing, Casting, Cinematography, Sound Mixing

    I Know This Much is True- (7) Limited Series, Lead Actor, Writing, Directing, Hairstyling, Music Composition, Editing

    The Plot Against America- (4)  Supporting Actor, Directing, Hairstyling, Sound Mixing

    The Loudest Voice- (3)  Lead Actor, Prosthetic Makeup, Sound Editing

    American Horror Story 1984- (3)  Makeup, Prosthetic Makeup, Sound Editing

    Years and Years- (2) Writing, Music Composition

    Bad Education- (2) TV Movie, Lead Actor

    The Eddy- (2) Lead Actor, Makeup

    Black Mirror- (1)  Sound Editing

    FYC Emmys-
    Limited- Quiz/ Unbelievable/ Years and Years

    Drama-Big Little Lies/ The Crown/ Killing Eve/ The Morning Show
    Jennifer, Jodie, Sandra, Olivia & VIOLA DAVIS

    Comedy- Schitts Creek/ Dead to Me- Christina Applegate, Catherine O’Hara, Suzy Nakamura, Annie Murphy, Dan Levy

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    puck05
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    #1203407587

    I Know This Much Is True has a supporting cast of Melissa Leo, Juliette Lewis, Kathryn Hahn and Rosie O’Donnell. I imagine at least one of them will be nominated.

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    Chris Beachum
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    May 22nd, 2011
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    #1203407948

    HBO is moving “The Third Day” to the fall.

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