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Limited and Movie Predictions (Part 4)

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    puck05
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    #1203494872

    I think we should all save our energy for campaigning for Years and Years for GD awards. Even though it’s the best show I’ve watched this season it’ll be snubbed at the Emmys.

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    Gabarnes43
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    #1203494874

    If Years and Years does well with Bafta nominations, could this help its emmy chances

    FYC Emmys-
    Limited- Quiz/ Unbelievable/ Years and Years

    Drama-Big Little Lies/ The Crown/ Killing Eve/ The Morning Show
    Jennifer, Jodie, Sandra, Olivia & VIOLA DAVIS

    Comedy- Schitts Creek/ Dead to Me- Christina Applegate, Catherine O’Hara, Suzy Nakamura, Annie Murphy, Dan Levy

    #1203494912

    I think we should all save our energy for campaigning for Years and Years for GD awards. Even though it’s the best show I’ve watched this season it’ll be snubbed at the Emmys.

    Yes sadly.

    If Years and Years does well with Bafta nominations, could this help its emmy chances

    I think it could get more buzz and be put in the mind of voters. We’ve seen this time and time again with Jodie Comer getting nominated and winning her Emmy for Killing Eve, A Very English Scandal getting Frears in after he won at BAFTA and Vanessa Kirby getting nominated at the Emmys after winning the BAFTA. If Thompson or Tovey win at BAFTA I wouldn’t count them out of sneaking into their respective categories at the Emmys.

    For Supporting Actress (at the Emmys) I am currently predicting it like this :

    1. Sarah Paulson
    2. Rose Byrne
    3. Tracey Ullman
    4. Uzo Aduba
    5. Jean Smart
    6. Toni Colette
    7. Margo Martindale
    8. Alison Janney
    9. Elizabeth Banks
    10. Patti LuPone
    11. Holland Taylor
    12. Emma Thompson
    13. Hong Chau
    14. Naomi Watts
    15. Melissa Leo

    FYC Emmys : Jodie Comer ("Killing Eve"), Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials"), Russell Tovery ("Years and Years"), Helena Bonham Carter ("The Crown") & The Crown, His Dark Materials, Years and Years, Succession and The Affair in all categories. The Politician : Ben Platt, Gwyneth Paltrow, Bette Midler and Judith Light.

    FYC Goldderby Awards : MAURA TIERNEY AND DOMINIC WEST FOR THE FINAL SEASON OF THE AFFAIR

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    puck05
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    #1203495760

    I’m really curious which shows will take the last two spots. Other than Mrs. America, Watchmen and Unbelievable, no show is a lock.

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    Smi
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    #1203495869

    I’m really curious which shows will take the last two spots. Other than Mrs. America, Watchmen and Unbelievable, no show is a lock.

    I just keep sending good Normal People vibes out there. It looks like some of the GD Experts are starting to rank the series and Paul.

    I will say I binged all of Mrs. America last night and loved it so much. My standouts are Rose, Cate, and Ari. Sarah also was so great this past episode. They’ve all been so good honestly!

    #1203496488

    Quiz has just been included in Vulture’s list of 20 TV shows to watch out for over the Summer along with Space ForceRamyThe Politician and Perry Mason.

    https://www.vulture.com/article/best-upcoming-new-tv-shows-summer-2020.html

    FYC Emmys : Jodie Comer ("Killing Eve"), Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials"), Russell Tovery ("Years and Years"), Helena Bonham Carter ("The Crown") & The Crown, His Dark Materials, Years and Years, Succession and The Affair in all categories. The Politician : Ben Platt, Gwyneth Paltrow, Bette Midler and Judith Light.

    FYC Goldderby Awards : MAURA TIERNEY AND DOMINIC WEST FOR THE FINAL SEASON OF THE AFFAIR

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    thedemonhog
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    #1203496516

    Those last two slots are so sketchy.  Hollywood has indeed gone over much better with audiences than critics, but it also does not have the rave audience scores of Bohemian RhapsodyGreen Book and Jojo Rabbit.  Critics did not care for those, but audiences loved them; audiences only like Hollywood.  People “like” a lot of shows, but they do not then necessarily vote them as among the best months later when they are off the high of having just seen it.  I daresay that Netflix released it too early?  The way that they timed the embargo, trailers, feature stories and so forth, I feel like the publicity department actually did a really good job getting as much buzz as they could have for the release, but I do not get the sense that it has the legs to carry it into July voting.  It might be the show still in contention most screwed over by the revised timeline.  Then again, people are more receptive to escapist programming right now and HBO shelved its two May miniseries for the fall, so I suppose that it evens out.

    The other that I have had in my last two slots for a long time is I Know This Much is True, but I am now convinced that it is The Tale redux.  The Tale was actually amazing, but I digress.  I Know This Much is True seems to have very little going for it at this point.  Literally the only thing might be timing.  Sure, it is on a prestige network and it is locked for a lead actor nomination, but those are both true of The Loudest Voice and nobody is predicting that.  I guess that Mark Ruffalo is actually the frontrunner, but I mean, so was Laura Dern.  She also seemed to have timing on her side.  Dern actually had zero competition and still lost.  Getting ahead of myself here, but my point is that it pains me to admit it because I was proud to lock in my 100/1 odds early, but I Know This Much is True is not happening.

    Unorthodox is cooling, but audiences actually did love it, so it might be in the same position as Unbelievable as having done enough when it was peaking to be remembered in the end.  Unorthodox is the greatest beneficiary of the quarantine because it got much more of a sampling than it would have (and again, HBO kind of exited the race).

    I am coming around to Little Fires Everywhere.  Audience scores are in that Hollywood range, but I do not really recall ever feeling like the show was peaking, so this seems like a case of “the flame that burns twice as bright burns half as long” opposite Hollywood.  The buzz has just been at a simmer for months, so I get the sense that people will continue to discover and watch Little Fires Everywhere into July.

    The only other that I really see in contention is Defending Jacob.  Its buzz also seems to be at a consistent simmer just because it is airing weekly, but it should be able to maintain this level for a while even after it finishes because binge-viewing is so popular these days, so some people might be waiting for it finish before they start, consciously or not.  I am somewhat dismissive of its audience scores because they seem suspiciously high.  I mean, I definitely heard people raving about Unorthodox, but I have not heard raves for Defending Jacob, as its audience scores suggest.  But who knows?  The simplest explanation is that I am just running in the wrong circles.  It is also not like people loved The Alienist, but people sometimes just like a good old-fashioned murder mystery, especially if there is a big Emmy campaign behind it.  Defending Jacob also seems much more steak-eater-friendly than Little Fires Everywhere and even Unorthodox.

    What we seem to be missing this year is the snob-appeal contender that Fosse/VerdonGenius and Patrick Melrose were.  Several contenders have elements of that, but nothing seems to be the full package.  It seemed last year that all of the limited series nominees were stronger than the movie nominees, but Bad Education and El Camino actually might end up being top-five programs in the limited/movie field this year.

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    Luca
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    #1203496538

    I am somewhat dismissive of its audience scores because they seem suspiciously high.  I mean, I definitely heard people raving about Unorthodox, but I have not heard raves for Defending Jacob, as its audience scores suggest.  But who knows?

    I have a two-word explanation for its high score: Chris Evans (coming from someone who enjoys the show for what it is).

    Who we really need to look out for from that show is Cherry Jones, who is just stealing it. She’s so great, especially in yesterday’s episode!

    Emmys FYC - "Unbelievable" and "The Handmaid's Tale" in all categories; Viola Davis in Best Drama Actress for the final season of "HTGAWM;" "Ozark:" Drama Series, Laura Linney (Best Actress) and Julia Garner (Best Supporting Actress)

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    Gabarnes43
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    #1203496545

    Rewatching Years and Years on BBC Iplayer and it’s so good. Rewatched the first 3 episodes so far, Thompson is actually better than I remembered. I was surprised by the fact Tovey had gone in lead, but even though he only appears in the first 4 episodes, he is pretty much the lead in those. I really hope this can get some emmy love (fingers crossed for a push after BAFTA nominations).

    FYC Emmys-
    Limited- Quiz/ Unbelievable/ Years and Years

    Drama-Big Little Lies/ The Crown/ Killing Eve/ The Morning Show
    Jennifer, Jodie, Sandra, Olivia & VIOLA DAVIS

    Comedy- Schitts Creek/ Dead to Me- Christina Applegate, Catherine O’Hara, Suzy Nakamura, Annie Murphy, Dan Levy

    #1203496561

    I think Evans is getting in. I know we’ve compared it to Daniel Bruhl in The Alienist but if Defending Jacob is happening somehow above the line I don’t see how Evans doesn’t get checked off.

    FYC Emmys : Jodie Comer ("Killing Eve"), Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials"), Russell Tovery ("Years and Years"), Helena Bonham Carter ("The Crown") & The Crown, His Dark Materials, Years and Years, Succession and The Affair in all categories. The Politician : Ben Platt, Gwyneth Paltrow, Bette Midler and Judith Light.

    FYC Goldderby Awards : MAURA TIERNEY AND DOMINIC WEST FOR THE FINAL SEASON OF THE AFFAIR

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    thedemonhog
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    #1203496586

    Who we really need to look out for from that show is Cherry Jones, who is just stealing it.

    Not this year.

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    Eden
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    #1203496592

    I think Hollywood and Little Fires Everywhere seem like safe choices for the last two spots. Big names and decent audience reception should be enough to help them make it in voters’ minds until nominations.

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    Luca
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    #1203496602

    Not this year.

    You’re probably right. But in 2018 she might have snuck in, lol.

    Emmys FYC - "Unbelievable" and "The Handmaid's Tale" in all categories; Viola Davis in Best Drama Actress for the final season of "HTGAWM;" "Ozark:" Drama Series, Laura Linney (Best Actress) and Julia Garner (Best Supporting Actress)

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    boss
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    #1203496612

    Sure, it is on a prestige network and it is locked for a lead actor nomination, but those are both true of The Loudest Voice and nobody is predicting that.

    This made me wonder whether Showtime will continue the trend it had sustained for the past two years. It will be sampled by voters through screeners only, so its early premiere date might be irrelevant; it is the sole push of Showtime and that might be enough. That being said, considering the zero promotion Unorthodox initially received it is quite an achievement that it is where it is at today. By the way, I have also seen The Eddy and really enjoyed it, I don’t think it was inaccessible as many think.

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    mafro987
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    #1203496653

    Normal People and Quiz were loved both by audiences and critics, while The Plot Against America definitely has a snob appeal. I know that these shows have a number of other factors that could potentially impede them, but they definitely should be mentioned in discussion of the last series slots.

    For Your Consideration:

    Best International Feature: Instinct (The Netherlands)
    Best Actress: Carice van Houten (Instinct)

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