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Limited and Movie Predictions (Part 6)

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    Chris Beachum
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    #1203557087

    Keep the topic going in Part 6.

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    24fanatic
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    #1203557141

    I’m starting to think the Miniseries line-up will be:

    Watchmen (HBO)
    Mrs. America (FX on Hulu)
    Unbelievable (Netflix)
    Little Fires Everywhere (Hulu)
    Defending Jacob (Apple+)

    Next in line:
    6th: Hollywood (Netflix)
    7th: Unorthodox (Netflix)
    8th: Normal People (Hulu)
    9th: The Plot Against America (HBO)
    10th: I Know This Much Is True (HBO)

    I think Little Fires might be in. Hulu is paying mad money to advertise it EVERYWHERE. I see non-stop billboards and posters for it here in LA. I think the last spot might be Apple money vs Ryan Murphy. There does seem to be a negative vibe towards Hollywood and I’m hoping that means it won’t get in, but it definitely could. Also, Unorthodox might be popular enough to sneak in ahead of Defending Jacob and Hollywood… but that is very iffy and will only happen if it’s popularity is being underestimated.

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    forwardswill
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    #1203557157

    I see non-stop billboards and posters for it here in LA.

    Interesting! What else have you seen being promoted if you don’t mind me asking?

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    The One And Only of Gold Derby.
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    #1203557192

    I think Watchmen and Mrs. America are locked, and Unbelievable and LFE are very likely. That last spot could go to anyone of Unorthodox, Normal People, Hollywood, or Defending Jacob.

    I have seen quite a lot of campaigning for DJ and LFE in the last few weeks.

    (I think Hammond from Deadline said Apple did a virtual event for DJ that had over 800 SAG nomination committee members. Just to show how much Apple is campaigning).

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    FYC : J. Smith-Cameron
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    #1203557202

    Limited Series

    1. Mrs. America (FX)
    2. Watchmen (HBO)
    3. Little Fires Everywhere (Hulu)
    4. Unbelievable (Netflix)
    5. Defending Jacob (AppleTV+)
    6. Unorthodox (Netflix)
    7. The Loudest Voice (Showtime0
    8. Normal People (Hulu)
    9. Hollywood (Netflix)
    10. The Plot Against America (HBO)

    Actress

    1. Cate Blanchett, Mrs. America
    2. Regina King, Watchmen
    3. Reese Witherspoon, Little Fires Everywhere
    4. Merrit Wever, Unbelievable
    5. Kerry Washington, Little Fires Everywhere

    6. Shira Haas, Unorthodox
    7. Kaitlyn Dever, Unbelievable
    8. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Normal People
    9. Michelle Dockery, Defending Jacob
    10. Kerry Washington, American Son

    Actor

    1. Hugh Jackman, Bad Education
    2. Russell Crowe, The Loudest Voice
    3. Jeremy Irons, Watchmen
    4. Paul Mescal, Normal People
    5. Mark Ruffalo, I Know This Much is True

    6. Chris Evans, Defending Jacob
    7. Andre Holland, The Eddy
    8. Jeremy Pope, Hollywood
    9. Aaron Paul, El Camino
    10. Morgan Spector, The Plot Against America

    Supporting Actress

    1. Sarah Paulson, Mrs. America
    2. Rose Byrne, Mrs. America
    3. Uzo Aduba, Mrs. America
    4. Tracey Ullman, Mrs. America
    5. Jean Smart, Watchmen
    6. Toni Colette, Unbelievable
    7. Alison Janney, Bad Education
    8. Margo Martindale, Mrs. America
    9. Ari Gaynor, Mrs. America
    10. Elizabeth Banks, Mrs. America

    Supporting Actor

    1. John Slattery, Mrs. America
    2. Tim Blake Nelson, Watchmen
    3. Yahya Abdul Mateen II, Watchmen
    4. Jim Parsons, Hollywood
    5. Joe Mantello, Hollywood
    6. Joshua Jackson, Little Fires Everywhere
    7. Jesse Plemons, El Camino
    8. Titus Burgess, Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt
    9. Jaeden Martell, Defending Jacob
    10. Louis Gossett Jr., Watchmen

    Writing

    1. It’s Summer and We’re Running Out of Ice – Watchmen
    2. This Extraordinary Being – Watchmen
    3. A God Walks Into Abar – Watchmen
    4. Reagan – Mrs. America
    5. Episode 1 – Unbelievable

    6. Phyllis – Mrs. America
    7. Episode 10 – Normal People
    8. Bad Education
    9. El Camino
    10. The Loudest Voice

    Directing

    1. Nicole Kassell, Watchmen (“It’s Summer and We’re Running Out of Ice”)
    2. Stephen Williams, Watchmen (“This Extraordinary Being”)
    3. Frederick E.O. Toye, Watchmen (“See How They Fly”)
    4. Anna Boden and Ryan Fleck, Mrs. America (“Phyllis”)
    5. Amma Asante, Mrs. America (“Betty”)
    6. Andrij Parekh, Watchmen (“If You Don’t Like My Story, Write Your Own”)
    7. Lynn Shelton, Little Fires Everywhere (“Find a Way”)
    8. Maria Schrader, Unorthodox
    9. Vince Gilligan, El Camino
    10. Lenny Abrahamson, Normal People (“Episode 3”)

    Casting

    1. Mrs. America
    2. Watchmen
    3. Little Fires Everywhere
    4. Unbelievable
    5. Unorthodox

    6. Defending Jacob
    7. Normal People
    8. Bad Education
    9. The Loudest Voice
    10. The Plot Against America

    FYC Emmys : Jodie Comer ("Killing Eve"), Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials"), Russell Tovery ("Years and Years"), Helena Bonham Carter ("The Crown") & The Crown, His Dark Materials, Years and Years, Succession and The Affair in all categories. The Politician : Ben Platt, Gwyneth Paltrow, Bette Midler and Judith Light.

    FYC Goldderby Awards : MAURA TIERNEY AND DOMINIC WEST FOR THE FINAL SEASON OF THE AFFAIR

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    FYC : J. Smith-Cameron
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    #1203557222

    I just had a peak and noticed that what hurts Regina King is the fact that since Sarah Paulson’s win in 2016, all the winners of Lead Actress in a Limited Series have been from Spring shows (The People vs OJ. Simpson, Big Little Lies, Seven Seconds, Fosse/Verdon). Whilst Frances McDormand’s win in 2015 shows precedent for King to win for an Autumn/Winter show under the new system it is worth reminding that when McDormand won it was in a period with weaker competition whilst we’re probably going to end up with the most competitive Lead Actress in a Limited Series line-up ever (and that’s saying something considering how competitive last year was).

    I think Watchmen and Mrs. America are locked, and Unbelievable and LFE are very likely. That last spot could go to anyone of Unorthodox, Normal People, Hollywood, or Defending Jacob. I have seen quite a lot of campaigning for DJ and LFE in the last few weeks. (I think Hammond from Deadline said Apple did a virtual event for DJ that had over 800 SAG nomination committee members. Just to show how much Apple is campaigning).

    As forwardswill mentioned on the other thread I agree that Defending Jacob could be strong enough to even get Evans in. I actually wouldn’t be surprised at the core three male cast members (Evans, Simmons and Martel) sneaking ing.

    FYC Emmys : Jodie Comer ("Killing Eve"), Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials"), Russell Tovery ("Years and Years"), Helena Bonham Carter ("The Crown") & The Crown, His Dark Materials, Years and Years, Succession and The Affair in all categories. The Politician : Ben Platt, Gwyneth Paltrow, Bette Midler and Judith Light.

    FYC Goldderby Awards : MAURA TIERNEY AND DOMINIC WEST FOR THE FINAL SEASON OF THE AFFAIR

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    jacob121
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    #1203557378

    I think there’s such a thing as over-analysis…

    2016 is an arbitrary cut off and, even so, there have been limited series acting winners from non-Spring shows in other categories since then.

    That’s of course, ignoring, the very specific cultural moment we are currently experiencing, the strength of the show overall, the love for King generally, and her powerhouse performance.

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    puck05
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    I will be devastated if Little Fires Everywhere and Defending Jacob get in and not Unorthodox and Normal People. (This doesn’t mean people who predict the former two are thinking wrong)

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    FYC : J. Smith-Cameron
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    #1203557393

    I think there’s such a thing as over-analysis… 2016 is an arbitrary cut off and, even so, there have been limited series acting winners from non-Spring shows in other categories since then. That’s of course, ignoring, the very specific cultural moment we are currently experiencing, the strength of the show overall, the love for King generally, and her powerhouse performance.

    Two words :

    Cate Blanchett

    FYC Emmys : Jodie Comer ("Killing Eve"), Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials"), Russell Tovery ("Years and Years"), Helena Bonham Carter ("The Crown") & The Crown, His Dark Materials, Years and Years, Succession and The Affair in all categories. The Politician : Ben Platt, Gwyneth Paltrow, Bette Midler and Judith Light.

    FYC Goldderby Awards : MAURA TIERNEY AND DOMINIC WEST FOR THE FINAL SEASON OF THE AFFAIR

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    jacob121
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    Two words :

    Cate Blanchett

    And? The “spring” argument is still reaching at best.

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    AayaanUpadhyaya
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    I am trying to figure out if Watchmen can dominate the Supporting Actor category. Most of the contenders in the category are either from shows that have become weaker now (read: Hollywood, Quiz) or performances that honestly feel like old news (Plemons, Burgess). So I am just wondering if we are all underestimating how well Watchmen can do in this category since it’s definitely a major series contender and has become so incredibly timely right now that it might as well have aired last month.

    I mean most of us are predicting Mrs America to get 3/4 out of 6 nominations in Supporting Actress, why can’t Watchmen get 3/4 out of 6 in Supporting Actor?

    I also think Louis Gosset Jr. is being heavily underestimated and is too low in the odds.

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    FYC : J. Smith-Cameron
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    I am trying to figure out if Watchmen can dominate the Supporting Actor category. Most of the contenders in the category are either from shows that have become weaker now (read: Hollywood, Quiz) or performances that honestly feel old news (Plemmons, Burgess). So I am just wondering if we are all underestimating how well Watchmen can do in this category since it’s definitely a major series contender and has become so incredibly timely right now that it might as well have aired last month. I mean most of us are predicting Mrs America to get 3/4 out of 6 nominations, why can’t Watchmen get 3/4 out of 6 in Supporting Actor? Maybe even 4? I also think Louis Gosset Jr. is being heavily underestimated and is too low in the odds.

    I agree. Am tempted to slot Gosset Jr. in instead of Joe Mantello.

    I think we’re also underestimating Joshua Jackson for Little Fires Everywhere. That category is wide open and I think considering all the goodwill that has been built up towards him with his performances in shows like The Affair and the fact that Little Fires Everywhere is one of the most seen contenders I wouldn’t be surprised if he got in. Especially considering we saw how Margaret Qualley got in Supporting Actress last year.

    I do think it is ok to be cautious about Watchmen in acting just like it is to be cautious about Succession in acting considering it also got shut out at SAG this year.

    FYC Emmys : Jodie Comer ("Killing Eve"), Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials"), Russell Tovery ("Years and Years"), Helena Bonham Carter ("The Crown") & The Crown, His Dark Materials, Years and Years, Succession and The Affair in all categories. The Politician : Ben Platt, Gwyneth Paltrow, Bette Midler and Judith Light.

    FYC Goldderby Awards : MAURA TIERNEY AND DOMINIC WEST FOR THE FINAL SEASON OF THE AFFAIR

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    jacob121
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    I am trying to figure out if Watchmen can dominate the Supporting Actor category. Most of the contenders in the category are either from shows that have become weaker now (read: Hollywood, Quiz) or performances that honestly feel old news (Plemmons, Burgess). So I am just wondering if we are all underestimating how well Watchmen can do in this category since it’s definitely a major series contender and has become so incredibly timely right now that it might as well have aired last month.

    I mean most of us are predicting Mrs America to get 3/4 out of 6 nominations, why can’t Watchmen get 3/4 out of 6 in Supporting Actor? Maybe even 4?

    I also think Louis Gosset Jr. is being heavily underestimated and is too low in the odds.

    Well I think Gosset Jr. is winning so agreed he is too low in the odds lol.

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    boss
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    I am trying to figure out if Watchmen can dominate the Supporting Actor category. Most of the contenders in the category are either from shows that have become weaker now (read: Hollywood, Quiz) or performances that honestly feel old news (Plemmons, Burgess). So I am just wondering if we are all underestimating how well Watchmen can do in this category since it’s definitely a major series contender and has become so incredibly timely right now that it might as well have aired last month.

    I mean most of us are predicting Mrs America to get 3/4 out of 6 nominations, why can’t Watchmen get 3/4 out of 6 in Supporting Actor? Maybe even 4?

    I also think Louis Gosset Jr. is being heavily underestimated and is too low in the odds.

    Certainly wouldn’t surprise me, in fact every year we see a show overperforming. If Hollywood was better, this wouldn’t be the case though.
    Regarding Joshua Jackson, I think it is likelier for Little Fires Everywhere to have both Witherspoon amd Washington in a field of five than to sneak in supporting races. That being said, I suppose he had more material than John Slattery as being the husband of female lead right?

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    Bee
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    #1203557662

    Joshua Jackson doesn’t have enough material for a nod nor is Little Fires Everywhere that strong enough for him to coattail.

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