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Limited and Movie Predictions (Part 6)

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    Heptapod
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    #1203569936

    I think IMDb metrics can be misleading, though. The target audiences for Little Fires Everywhere, Mrs. America, and The Act (mostly female, a mix of millennial and middle-aged) are not the same people using IMDb (overwhelmingly male and older). I mean, can you really see a twenty-year-old Gloria Steinem fan or a middle-aged mother of three who watches LFE and BLL on wine nights with her book club logging onto IMDb of all places to leave a rating? IMDb can give an overall sense of popularity, but you have to remember that the user population of that site is not very diverse.

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    Luca
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    #1203570046

    While I don’t consider IMDb a good metric for popularity, I think what Ivo is getting it may be important: I don’t think Mrs. America has the passion to win limited series. I think the show is more respected than it is beloved, and frankly, I don’t think it appeals to a broad audience. Of course, you could argue that the latter also applies to Watchmen, but that one seems to have just blown up in the zeitgeist. I’d say Unbelievable’s IMDb numbers are the most impressive since it’s neither flashy nor something typical IMDb goers would gravitate toward.

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    Pandamonium
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    #1203570224

    Like what has been stated prior, it’s not perfect, but IMDb does show the demographic breakdown of user scores by age and M/F split. The gender split is actually quite close all things considered (because I do agree that IMDb skews older and male). When you look at male:female Mrs. America’s voters total vote share per age demo, between 40-48% of the vote share is female depending on which age demographic you look at. Compared to say Watchmen which skews heavily male and has female demos logging at 10-15% of the total vote depending on the age demo.

    Mrs. America: https://www.imdb.com/title/tt9244556/ratings?ref_=tt_ov_rt
    Watchmen: https://www.imdb.com/title/tt7049682/ratings?ref_=tt_ov_rt

    I just quickly searched the demo breakdown of the rest of the series contenders and I think that is the closest to parity, though still lacking, among the series contenders. Normal People is around the same ballpark. I’m less familiar with the demo of the Emmy voting body than the Oscars, but while I know the TV academy is more diverse by proxy of it being a larger group and less exclusive for the lack of a better term, wouldn’t the Emmys still skew older and male anyways?

    I mean, while also imperfect, it’s TV Time app logs which would skew to a younger demo has it logged at 25k. Significantly behind its other competitors Watchmen (225k), Unbelievable (258k), LFE (83k), Hollywood (137k), Defending Jacob (87k), Unorthodox (186k), Normal People (41k).

    I think the more concerning matter with regards to Mrs. America’s viewership, is the perception here that the TV Academy is going to tune in and watch it en masse. The Fosse/Verdon comparison is often used here. When F/V had the benefit of being a show about the industry, on top of a biopic on two people in the industry whom the average Emmy voter is at least aware of or is privy to their work on stage and screen.

    Sure the name and cast is a draw, but I’m not too convinced especially during the tumultuous political time that is the Trump era that a show like Mrs. America has the punch and heft for voters that we are expecting. I do think it will still do well, but I’m less certain of it being the juggernaut in nominations we are expecting it to be. Another politically-minded show like Veep flourished during the Obama era precisely for it’s ability to puncture the optimistic tone of that administration with it’s absurdist one (though distilling that brilliant show into a singular adjective doesnt do it justice). What partially hurt Veep during the end of its run was the political satire couldn’t match the absurdity of the Trump administration. A part of me wonders if Mrs. America’s commentary in its portrayal of the divisive political climate of that era can hold up to the divisiveness of the current times for Emmy voters.

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    Bee
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    #1203570243

    Mrs. America doesn’t have urgent supporters that want to see it win. You have people who love it, but they don’t care to see it win a whole lot of things beyond acting. With the timing, it just falls short.

    Also, I’m really not understanding the Jean Smart doubt. That woman has 3 wins out of 8 noms, one of which was for a cancelled sitcom (Samantha Who?). She doesn’t need Globe or SAG to get the Emmy nom and for all of the talk of Toni Collette being a lock (she is), Smart plays a very similar role, yet somehow she’s being considered on the cusp.

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    methaddiction
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    #1203570246

    I haven’t watched all of Watchmen but Smart is phenomenal in her episode she isn’t missing.

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    Jays
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    #1203570256

    Have gotten to the point where I’m just saying fuck it and predicting with my gut. Slotted Normal People into the last spot in series – have LFE, Unbelievable, Watchmen and Mrs. America in as well. Took out Washington for Dever because I think Washington’s performance was more of a mixed-bag and may have its retractors. I feel pretty confident in Mescal getting in, actually, but I’m flirting with taking out Irons for Paul or Evans. Keeping Irons in for now, though. Have 4 Mrs. America ladies in with Smart and Collette – Byrne, Paulson, Martindale and Ullman. Supporting actor is killing me, though. Since I don’t have Hollywood in series, I feel weird predicting multiple actors from the show getting in but who else is there? I have Mantello with Parsons, Slattery, Turturro, Nelson and Plemons (feel like there will be some wild surprise so I’m going for him here).

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    Tyler
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    #1203570269

    Also, I’m really not understanding the Jean Smart doubt. That woman has 3 wins out of 8 noms, one of which was for a cancelled sitcom (Samantha Who?). She doesn’t need Globe or SAG to get the Emmy nom and for all of the talk of Toni Collette being a lock (she is), Smart plays a very similar role, yet somehow she’s being considered on the cusp.

    Yeah, it’s bizarre how Smart isn’t often considered win-competitive when she obviously is

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    Sab227
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    #1203570281

    Yeah, it’s bizarre how Smart isn’t often considered win-competitive when she obviously is

    Agree she is an easy nominee considering her status with the academy and win competitive considering shes not only gave the best performance in Watchmen but is in the Limited Series front runner

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    jacob121
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    #1203570283

    I feel weird predicting multiple actors from the show getting in but who else is there? I have Mantello with Parsons, Slattery, Turturro, Nelson and Plemons (feel like there will be some wild surprise so I’m going for him here).

    Watchmen has other viable contenders in supporting actor, Abdul-Mateen, Adepo, Gossett Jr., and if you are predicting it to win series, that’s where I would look (although others may disagree considering the dragging I got in the previous iteration of this thread).

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    mafro987
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    #1203570285

    I’ve gotten through most limited series contenders now. Still have I Know This Much Is True to finish (only saw the first episode), and may watch Belgravia, Castle Rock and Dispatches From Elsewhere. My personal ranking is:

    Watchmen
    Normal People
    The Plot Against America
    Unbelievable
    Years and Years
    Mrs America
    Devs
    Unorthodox
    Little Fires Everywhere
    The Loudest Voice
    Quiz
    The Spy
    The Eddy
    Mrs Fletcher
    Our Boys
    Defending Jacob
    The Terror
    Self Made
    American Horror Story: 1984
    Catherine the Great
    Hollywood

    For Your Consideration:

    Best International Feature: Instinct (The Netherlands)
    Best Actress: Carice van Houten (Instinct)

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    Jays
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    #1203570288

    Watchmen has other viable contenders in supporting actor, Abdul-Mateen, Adepo, Gossett Jr., and if you are predicting it to win series, that’s where I would look (although others may disagree considering the dragging I got in the previous iteration of this thread).

    It’s just, is there a consensus on who would be the second or third nominee? I feel like Nelson is the supporting player that everyone has rallied behind or agreed upon and the others have their own supporters and what not.

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    Deemy
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    #1203570292

    Limited Supporting Actress

    Rose Byrne
    Sarah Paulson
    Toni Collete
    Jean Smart
    Lexi Underwood
    Tracy Ullman

    That’s how I see this category panning out.

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    wolfali
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    #1203570308

    I’ve gotten through most limited series contenders now. Still have I Know This Much Is True to finish (only saw the first episode), and may watch Belgravia, Castle Rock and Dispatches From Elsewhere. My personal ranking is: Watchmen Normal People The Plot Against America Unbelievable Years and Years Mrs America Devs Unorthodox Little Fires Everywhere The Loudest Voice Quiz The Spy The Eddy Mrs Fletcher Our Boys Defending Jacob The Terror Self Made American Horror Story: 1984 Catherine the Great Hollywood

    Oof I really need to watch The Plot Against America.

    My ranking of the Limited Series contenders on personal preference of what I’ve seen so far :

    Watchmen
    Years and Years
    Mrs. America
    Unbelievable
    Deadwater Fell (not happening in a million years but still was an excellent Limited Series that I would recommend)
    Quiz
    Normal People
    Little Fires Everywhere
    The Eddy
    American Horror Story : 1984
    Catherine the Great
    Hollywood

    FYC Emmys : Jodie Comer ("Killing Eve"), Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials"), Russell Tovery ("Years and Years"), Helena Bonham Carter ("The Crown") & The Crown, His Dark Materials, Years and Years, Succession and The Affair in all categories. The Politician : Ben Platt, Gwyneth Paltrow, Bette Midler and Judith Light.

    FYC Goldderby Awards : MAURA TIERNEY AND DOMINIC WEST FOR THE FINAL SEASON OF THE AFFAIR

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    jacob121
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    #1203570311

    It’s just, is there a consensus on who would be the second or third nominee? I feel like Nelson is the supporting player that everyone has rallied behind or agreed upon and the others have their own supporters and what not.

    I think this is fair – but, conversely, the same can be said about the Hollywood supporting actors and Hollywood is fighting to get a spot in the series lineup so not sure why multiple actors from that show (which many are seemingly predicting) are more likely than multiple actors from Watchmen.

    Could be totally wrong, of course, but seems weird to me that I seem to be so alone on this limb considering most people have Watchmen in #1 or #2 for series.

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    Pandamonium
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    #1203570349

    It’s just, is there a consensus on who would be the second or third nominee? I feel like Nelson is the supporting player that everyone has rallied behind or agreed upon and the others have their own supporters and what not.

    There isn’t a consensus, but if I were to lean on another Watchmen actor it would be Abdul-Mateen. This is more of an arbitrary reasoning on my part, but I think some of the ‘surprises’ in recent memory come as a result of that actor/actress being more central to the storyline aka acting opposite of and tied into the main(s) of the story whose spots are more secure in their categories. The mothers in When They See Us. Qualley’s Reinking being more central in Fosse/Verdon’s lives throughout than Butz’s character who was predicted. Hoffman’s Mamacita attached at the hip to Lange’s Crawford. A God Walks into Abar and all the emotional scenes of the series revolve and are connected to Abdul-Mateen and King’s interactions moreso than Adepo and Gossett Jr. I’ll admit, this doesn’t hold up as well for say Finn Wittrock in Versace, but that is what makes my reasoning more arbitrary.

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