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Limited and Movie Predictions (Part 6)

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    Pandamonium
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    #1203570388

    I think this is fair – but, conversely, the same can be said about the Hollywood supporting actors and Hollywood is fighting to get a spot in the series lineup so not sure why multiple actors from that show (which many are seemingly predicting) are more likely than multiple actors from Watchmen.

    Could be totally wrong, of course, but seems weird to me that I seem to be so alone on this limb considering most people have Watchmen in #1 or #2 for series.

    Because there is more overt acting in Hollywood, which voters often fall for over more subtle performances and Murphy’s shows have been adept in Limited series in getting the actors of his shows acting nominations.

    For as maligned as that show was by critics, it still managed to secure a nomination at minor critics group such as getting a nod at the HCA Midseason awards for New Drama and was second (6) in total nominations to Schitt’s Creek (7) for GALECA’s Dorian TV Awards securing acting noms for Pope, Lupone, Mantello and Parsons in spite of those acting categories having drama/comedy/limited combined. This is on top of that awards body having a more restricting nominating process by only being allowed to list their t-3 in each category.

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    wolfali
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    #1203570390

    Although Adepo is at the top of the ballot I am predicting Gossett Jr. over him. I currently am not prepared to make space for Adepo (unless I feel like I should drop Mantello which is an idea I am flirting with) but I don’t see Gossett Jr. missing. He is actually quite good in Watchmen and if voters are watching Watchmen (which they are) I don’t see how they can pass on voting for him especially considering his name recognition and respect in the industry.

    FYC Emmys : Jodie Comer ("Killing Eve"), Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials"), Russell Tovery ("Years and Years"), Helena Bonham Carter ("The Crown") & The Crown, His Dark Materials, Years and Years, Succession and The Affair in all categories. The Politician : Ben Platt, Gwyneth Paltrow, Bette Midler and Judith Light.

    FYC Goldderby Awards : MAURA TIERNEY AND DOMINIC WEST FOR THE FINAL SEASON OF THE AFFAIR

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    ReginaIsKing
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    #1203570406

    Because there is more overt acting in Hollywood, which voters often fall for over more subtle performances and Murphy’s shows have been adept in Limited series in getting the actors of his shows acting nominations. For as maligned as that show was by critics, it still managed to secure a nomination at minor critics group such as getting a nod at the HCA Midseason awards for New Drama and was second (6) in total nominations to Schitt’s Creek (7) for GALECA’s Dorian TV Awards securing acting noms for Pope, Lupone, Mantello and Parsons in spite of those acting categories having drama/comedy/limited combined. This is on top of that awards body having a more restricting nominating process by only being allowed to list their t-3 in each category.

    Nnnnnn those Midseason awards are beyond irrelevant and Dorian nominating it doesn’t make much of a difference either. The only other Ryan show that I can think of that got this much bad buzz was The Politician and that’s getting snubbed in the acting categories too. I still have Parsons getting in and one other I think (can’t think of who), but that’s because the category is dead as usual. Just because his past (more acclaimed and watched) shows got multiple actors in, doesn’t mean it can’t get only one or none in this time.

    But OT of a second Watchmen supporting actor getting in, I think it’s going to be Abdul-Mateen. He has the most important role of the male actors in the show and he’s campaigning (Actors Roundtable, etc.).

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    Jays
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    #1203570693

    I think this is fair – but, conversely, the same can be said about the Hollywood supporting actors and Hollywood is fighting to get a spot in the series lineup so not sure why multiple actors from that show (which many are seemingly predicting) are more likely than multiple actors from Watchmen. Could be totally wrong, of course, but seems weird to me that I seem to be so alone on this limb considering most people have Watchmen in #1 or #2 for series.

    Yeah, it’s tricky. I said that I don’t feel good about predicting multiple Hollywood actors because I’m not predicting it to get a series nomination or any other acting nominations but the supporting players are doing a lot of acting. Parsons is a lock and I think Mantello is a really strong bet too.

    Do I think Watchmen could get an additional supporting nomination? Yeah. I don’t think you’re crazy at all for thinking that and I’m sorry that people attacked you for it lol. Like I said though, I’m struggling to see who that second or third person would be. If there was a clear favorite other than Nelson then I’d definitely be predicting them.

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    thedemonhog
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    #1203570716

    There isn’t a consensus, but if I were to lean on another Watchmen actor it would be Abdul-Mateen. This is more of an arbitrary reasoning on my part, but I think some of the ‘surprises’ in recent memory come as a result of that actor/actress being more central to the storyline aka acting opposite of and tied into the main(s) of the story whose spots are more secure in their categories. The mothers in When They See Us.

    The mothers were more central than their sons?

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    Pandamonium
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    #1203570768

    The mothers were more central than their sons?

    Not my argument. Their characters were more central to the storyline/acting opposite of the mains (leads) who are usually more secure in their acting nominations, as I state.

    So like in my Qualley example, Reinking was present and in more impactful scenes opposite the mains/leads of Verdon (Williams) and Fosse (Rockwell). Her story arc was more centered on the main storyline of the series than Paddy’s (Butz) was. That’s why someone like Qualley who was ranked in the late teens or thereabout, a relative unknown at the time of her nomination could get in over 2x Tony winner Butz who was higher in the GD odds at like six. Because viewers just see more of her and they saw more of her character opposite the lead in the more emotionally resonant scenes.

    So for WTSU, it’s not hard to imagine after the fact that if voters really resonated with the leads/main storyline (CP5) of the show voters would check off their relatives. That is my argument for why I would have Abdul-Mateen over Adepo and Gossett Jr. The latter has a career far exceeding where Abdul-Mateen’s is of course, but Cal is more central to the show by proxy of his character being in the more impactful/emotionally resonant scenes of the show opposite Angela than Will is.

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    Jesse
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    #1203570944

    I think Abdul Mateen II is second of the Watchmen supporting men die to the buzz of his big episode. Personally, I think and hope Adepo is third and gets a Nom. I’ve been a fan since The Leftovers and thought he was great in his episode. I know it’s risky predicting three that doesn’t include The Oscar winner who has more spread out screen time.

    However, we’ve all spoken about the timeliness of Watchmen regarding our current times. The episode most linked to our times, that’s sparking the most discourse around American police is Adepo’s episode. So even though the others have more moments (and the Abar episode is also acclaimed) I think Adepo in “Being” is a dark horse.

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    Rachel
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    #1203571051

    Although Adepo is at the top of the ballot I am predicting Gossett Jr. over him. I currently am not prepared to make space for Adepo (unless I feel like I should drop Mantello which is an idea I am flirting with) but I don’t see Gossett Jr. missing. He is actually quite good in Watchmen and if voters are watching Watchmen (which they are) I don’t see how they can pass on voting for him especially considering his name recognition and respect in the industry.

    This^ I don’t understand why Gossett Jr. isn’t considered more of a threat. He was the Watchman standout for me and he’s beloved in the industry. I’m not sure I agree that all of these Hollywood actors will get in. The series itself was a disappointment.

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    Ivo Stoyanov
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    #1203571507

    I think IMDb metrics can be misleading, though. The target audiences for Little Fires Everywhere, Mrs. America, and The Act (mostly female, a mix of millennial and middle-aged) are not the same people using IMDb (overwhelmingly male and older). I mean, can you really see a twenty-year-old Gloria Steinem fan or a middle-aged mother of three who watches LFE and BLL on wine nights with her book club logging onto IMDb of all places to leave a rating? IMDb can give an overall sense of popularity, but you have to remember that the user population of that site is not very diverse.

    I usually adore your posts, but you are correct here. Obviously millions of people watch TV and not vote on IMDB. But millions do and we are focusing on them. The female angle is well represented:

    Unbelievable – 60 000 votes and a score of 8.4
    Unorthodox – 40 000 votes and a score of 8.0
    The Handmaid’s Tale – 157 000 and a score of 8.5
    Big Little Lies – 142 000 and a score of 8.5
    Downton Abbey – 156 000 and a score of 8.7
    The Morning Show – 38 000 and a score of 8.4

    If those 6 can have those tremendous numbers of votes and scores, Little Fires Everywhere (15 000 and 7.8), Mrs. America (4 000 and 7.8) and The Act (17 000 and 8.0) have no excuse to perform so badly.

    Especially, Little Fires, the numbers reported by Hulu do not match not only IMDB, but also Twitter, Facebook, YouTube and Instagram. It is not a hugely seen show, more like the opposite.

    Any idea on what went wrong with promoting this show? Can’t believe it’s this low.

    I think that sadly is the subject matter. People are tired of the MeToo themes. Mrs. America is my favorite show this year and I am very sad that is so little seen and so misunderstood, because the show is so complex and speaks about many others subjects, it shows both points of view like no other shows has. It deserve much better than this.

    However, people are tired of being told how to think and what to believe. I am curious to see what will happen with the aggressive campaign of Pose, Janet Mock and Indya Moore telling voters that if they do not vote for it means that they are are racists, homophobic and transphobic seems so wrong to me. And they do not even hide their visible discontent with Billy Porter being the only performer praised by the show only because he is not trans makes me feel bad for him.

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    Tyler
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    wolfali
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    #1203572073

    There’s just really. nothing better

    This comes VERY VERY CLOSE but I agree there is nothing better than Watchmen this year.

    I swear if Watchmen loses Series, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Writing, Directing, Original Music Composition and pretty much all the craft categories apart from make up and casting I will burn the Academy down.

    FYC Emmys : Jodie Comer ("Killing Eve"), Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials"), Russell Tovery ("Years and Years"), Helena Bonham Carter ("The Crown") & The Crown, His Dark Materials, Years and Years, Succession and The Affair in all categories. The Politician : Ben Platt, Gwyneth Paltrow, Bette Midler and Judith Light.

    FYC Goldderby Awards : MAURA TIERNEY AND DOMINIC WEST FOR THE FINAL SEASON OF THE AFFAIR

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    wolfali
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    #1203572081

    The LA Times’s predictions
    https://www.latimes.com/entertainment-arts/tv/story/2020-07-07/emmy-predictions-limited-series-acting :

    Limited Series

    1. Watchmen
    2. Unbelievable
    3. Normal People
    4. Mrs. America
    5. Little Fires Everywhere


    6. Unorthodox
    7. Hollywood
    8. I Know This Much is True
    9. The Plot Against America
    10. Defending Jacob

    Lead Actress in a Limited Series

    1. Regina King
    2. Merritt Wever
    3. Kerry Washington
    4. Cate Blanchett
    5. Reese Witherspoon

    6. Shira Haas
    7. Kaitlyn Dever
    8. Octavia Spencer
    9. Daisy Edgar-Jones

    Lead Actor in a Limited Series

    1. Mark Ruffalo
    2. Hugh Jackman
    3. Aaron Paul
    4. Paul Mescal
    5. Russell Crowe

    6. Jeremy Irons
    7. Andre Holland
    8. Jeremy Pope
    9. Chris Evans
    10. Matthew MacFadyen

    Supporting Actress in a Limited Series/Movie

    1. Toni Colette
    2. Jean Smart
    3. Alison Janney
    4. Patti LuPone
    5. Rose Byrne
    6. Margo Martindale

    7. Sarah Paulson
    8. Uzo Aduba
    9. Tracey Ullman
    10. Holland Taylor

    Supporting Actor in a Limited Series/Movie

    1. Yayha Abdul-Mateen II
    2. Tim Blake Nelson
    3. Jim Parsons
    4. John Slattery
    5. Joe Mantello
    6. Jesse Plemons

    7. John Turturro
    8. Ray Romano
    9. Louis Gossett Jr.
    10. Darren Criss

    FYC Emmys : Jodie Comer ("Killing Eve"), Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials"), Russell Tovery ("Years and Years"), Helena Bonham Carter ("The Crown") & The Crown, His Dark Materials, Years and Years, Succession and The Affair in all categories. The Politician : Ben Platt, Gwyneth Paltrow, Bette Midler and Judith Light.

    FYC Goldderby Awards : MAURA TIERNEY AND DOMINIC WEST FOR THE FINAL SEASON OF THE AFFAIR

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    #1203572115
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    wolfali
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    #1203572143

    Imagine having Blanchett at 4 lmao

    I know! And having Aaron Paul above Russell Crowe lmfao.

    FYC Emmys : Jodie Comer ("Killing Eve"), Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials"), Russell Tovery ("Years and Years"), Helena Bonham Carter ("The Crown") & The Crown, His Dark Materials, Years and Years, Succession and The Affair in all categories. The Politician : Ben Platt, Gwyneth Paltrow, Bette Midler and Judith Light.

    FYC Goldderby Awards : MAURA TIERNEY AND DOMINIC WEST FOR THE FINAL SEASON OF THE AFFAIR

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    Rachel
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    #1203572161

     Lead Actor in a Limited Series 1. Mark Ruffalo 2. Hugh Jackman 3. Aaron Paul 4. Paul Mescal 5. Russell Crowe — 6. Jeremy Irons 7. Andre Holland 8. Jeremy Pope 9. Chris Evans 10. Matthew MacFadyen

    Hm… I just don’t see it happening. Aaron Paul’s gotten virtually no buzz for El Camino. I’m surprised so many people are still predicting him to get in. I disagree with them on Chris Evans’ placement. He’s been everywhere campaigning. He’s ahead of Holland and Pope for sure.

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