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Limited and Movie Predictions (Part 6)

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    Gabriel Seehorn (gabspss)
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    #1203580293

    I really can’t see the voters not voting for both LFE ladies.

    I wanna try do understand this.

    Unbelievable was more acclaimed (and probably more watched) than Little Fires Everywhere.

    Meritt Wever and Kaitlyn Dever were both super acclaimed. I don’t remember ever reading someone saying one of those were not good.

    Most people acclaimed both Kerry Washington and Reese Whiterspoon, true. However there were a lot of people complaining about either Reese or Kerry’s performance. More complaint for the latter.

    So why you can see voters voting for Wever alone and not for Reese/Kerry alone?

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    Ivo Stoyanov
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    #1203580300

    Witherspoon is the one out, Dever is stronger than both LFE ladies and there is no way for them to snub Washington in the current climate, especially with multiple Black stars making openly aggressive campaign.

    Issa Rae is the only possibility in Comedy lead (I would say a lock), Viola Davis is the only possibility in Drama lead (I still cannot see her making it, so it is possible to be all white category), so we have Limited lead to compensate with both King and Washington. Sadly, Witherspoon will be snub for all three roles.

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    Dame Mandy Moore
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    #1203580308

    Witherspoon is the one out, Dever is stronger than both LFE ladies

    LOL

    "Do not let your hearts be troubled. Trust in God; trust also in me."
    - Mandy Moore
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    Bee
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    #1203580314

    I wanna try do understand this.

    Unbelievable was more acclaimed (and probably more watched) than Little Fires Everywhere.

    Meritt Wever and Kaitlyn Dever were both super acclaimed. I don’t remember ever reading someone saying one of those were not good.

    Most people acclaimed both Kerry Washington and Reese Whiterspoon, true. However there were a lot of people complaining about either Reese or Kerry’s performance. More complaint for the latter.

    So why you can see voters voting for Wever alone and not for Reese/Kerry alone?

    I already explained why. Kerry Washington and Reese Witherspoon are in all of the episodes, side by side, of LFE and are so obviously two peas in a pod. Kaitlyn Dever was the center of the first episode of Unbelievable and then the show takes off with Merritt Wever and Toni Collette’s characters. Dever and Wever are not a packaged deal like Witherspoon and Washington. The latter two bounce off of each other.

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    Julien Veyrenc
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    #1203580336

    I already explained why. Kerry Washington and Reese Witherspoon are in all of the episodes, side by side, of LFE and are so obviously two peas in a pod. Kaitlyn Dever was the center of the first episode of Unbelievable and then the show takes off with Merritt Wever and Toni Collette’s characters. Dever and Wever are not a packaged deal like Witherspoon and Washington. The latter two bounce off of each other.

    I agree.

    I watched Unbelievable yesterday and the day before (finally lol), I was really convinced by Dever/Wever/Collette portrayings, but I feel like Collette could almost be a lead instead of Dever given how the story focus more on Wever/Collette investigation.

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    GregSprinkles
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    #1203580342

    I agree. I watched Unbelievable yesterday and the day before (finally lol), I was really convinced by Dever/Wever/Collette portrayings, but I feel like Collette could almost be a lead instead of Dever given how the story focus more on Wever/Collette investigation.

    I do wish that Collette and Dever swapped, cause the former wouldn’t have missed lead and the latter would’ve benefited from being supporting more so. Still, I believe both get in alongside Wever.

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    Luca
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    #1203580344

    I just want to remind everyone that Aunjanue Ellis and Niecy Nash both got in for WTSU last year. If they love your show, they Love it. And Kaitlyn is much more of a lead than Nash and Ellis.

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    Eden
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    #1203580364

    The sudden Dever hype is obviously due to the TCA nom, but I’m doubtful that’s gonna help her. Not in a category of five. As previously said, Witherspoon and Washington are more of a package deal, unlike Dever and Wever. Even more, they are   on the same page on the ballot.

    Seehorn benefits more because she’s actually in a category of eight. Under the old rules, I’m confident Dever would’ve made it in.

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    Dame Mandy Moore
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    #1203580372

    I just want to remind everyone that Aunjanue Ellis and Niecy Nash both got in for WTSU last year. If they love your show, they Love it. And Kaitlyn is much more of a lead than Nash and Ellis.

    Unbelievable isn’t When They See Us, this delusion need to stop.

    "Do not let your hearts be troubled. Trust in God; trust also in me."
    - Mandy Moore
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    eastwest
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    #1203580374

    Wrapped up watching the predicted five for limited series just now with finishing Unbelievable.

    Watchmen is towering. I didn’t know this balance of genre and topical would work in the profound way it did. It’s the winner point blank periodt. I would need to revisit my list, but I think I have it as the nominations leader w/20+ nominations.

    Mrs. America is the classic period piece with an amazing ensemble. This is Cate Blanchett doing basic work as oppose to her more interesting roles, but she leads things nicely. I was more interested in the other women’s performances, Rose Byrne being best in show, and it could fill the ballot if it were the only IMPORTANT series in contention, but it’s not and the wealth will be spread accordingly to avoid such domination.

    Unbelievable is one I am still sitting with since it’s the freshest. As a scholar of Law & Order: SVU, this was a meal to the empty calories. So many things I didn’t know about rape investigations that were illuminating and angering. The three women were phenomenal and category placements are correct.

    Little Fires Everywhere is the well made soap I crave and this was pretty entertaining. Reese Witherspoon added another layer to the scores of Beckys/Karens/Susans that has made her career. Kerry Washington is unrecognizable here as the complicated truth teller. The kids were strong too.

    Hollywood . . .

    And honorable mentioned to Normal People. Love me some British shows and this one didn’t disappoint. It had the chaste of Jane Austen, but modern and literally sexy times. The leads chemistry made it work. It’s too bad the girl will be left off, but I’m rooting for the guy (WHAT A MANT!) to make it in. Also the cinematography and music supervision.

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    wolfali
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    #1203580378

    I just want to remind everyone that Aunjanue Ellis and Niecy Nash both got in for WTSU last year. If they love your show, they Love it. And Kaitlyn is much more of a lead than Nash and Ellis.

    This is a bad comparison.

    Both Ellis and Nash were in one of the frontrunners for Limited Series (something Unbelievable isn’t), the frontrunner with the most acting support and were competing in a category with 6 slots that (apart from those nominated) had no actress from a viable Limited Series contender or nominee that could compete with them for the nomination. This year we have 5 slots and tbh 6 Limited Series or potential Limited Series nominees (Mrs. America, Watchmen, Unbelievable, Little Fires Everywhere, Unorthodox, Defending Jacob and Normal People) with not 6 but 9 actresses competitive for the nomination. Just because Nash and Ellis got in last year it doesn’t mean Dever will this year (especially when it seems unlikely Unbelievable will be able to top Mrs. America and Watchmen in terms of support from the actors branch).

    Now regarding discussions earlier around Dever having the advantage of having a profile in Hollywood on her side. If her profile really is going to be an advantage for her then (and this is what confuses me about Unbelievable’s chances) why is it that she failed to get nominated at SAG whilst riding on the buzz of not only Unbelievable but also Booksmart. I mean we saw Colette get in over Wever because of how name so why didn’t we see Dever get in over Joey King when we know SAG often name checks Hollywood stars (see John Krasinski over Billy Porter last year) and that Dever had the bigger name?

    I am predicting Unbelievable to do better than I was previously because of its surprise TCA showing but I am hesitant about predicting it across the board (or in 2nd like you have Luca even though there is no way it is ahead of Mrs. America) when we’re still forgetting the fact it got snubbed at DGA and didn’t break through as much as it should have at SAG.

    FYC Emmys : THE MARVELOUS MRS. MAISEL, SUCCESSION AND THE CROWN IN ALL CATEGORIES. Tony Shalhoub ("Maisel"), Cate Blanchett ("Mrs. America"), Matthew Macfadyen, Jeremy Strong, Sarah Snook ("Succession"), Tracey Ullman ("Mrs. America") and Louis Gossett Jr. ("Watchmen")

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    wolfali
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    #1203580383

    The sudden Dever hype is obviously due to the TCA nom, but I’m doubtful that’s gonna help her. Not in a category of five. As previously said, Witherspoon and Washington are more of a package deal, unlike Dever and Wever. Even more, they are on the same page on the ballot. Seehorn benefits more because she’s actually in a category of eight. Under the old rules, I’m confident Dever would’ve made it in.

    Although I literally wrote a post saying how Unbelievable stans are getting too excited about the fact it got 4 nominations at TCA (like seriously there is no f*cking way it’s ahead of Mrs. America in Series) it is worth baring in mind that no Limited/Movie performance nominated at TCA has ever missed at the Emmys.

    I do agree that we are underestimating how much of a package deal Witherspoon and Washington are. I mean they are literally on the same page for voters!

    FYC Emmys : THE MARVELOUS MRS. MAISEL, SUCCESSION AND THE CROWN IN ALL CATEGORIES. Tony Shalhoub ("Maisel"), Cate Blanchett ("Mrs. America"), Matthew Macfadyen, Jeremy Strong, Sarah Snook ("Succession"), Tracey Ullman ("Mrs. America") and Louis Gossett Jr. ("Watchmen")

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    Luca
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    #1203580393

    I made the comparisons to Ellis and Nash to debunk the theory that smaller lead performances are immediately at a disadvantage, not because I think the two gals are similar to Dever. And lol, Unbelievable snagged four Globes noms as opposed to WTSU’s zero and one SAG nom just like WTSU’s one. Yes, it was a stronger acting player at the Emmys than Unbelievable will be, but that’s also because it had a cast of like 50 actors, most of whom were submitted.

     

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    Hoster1
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    #1203580401

    If there were only 5 slots last year, then Ellis would’ve propably missed.

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    jacob121
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    #1203580436

    Why is everyone so confident that Unbelievable isn’t #2?

    I mean, even if it isn’t, it’s third at worst.

    That means its among the series frontrunners and that its actors should get increased scrutiny for nominations.

    Dever got Globe, TCA, and Critics Choice.

    If voters are interested in checking out the show and they only watch one episode – it’s her showcase.

    I’m just not getting convinced at this point that Kerry and Reese are ahead of her. Maybe they are a package deal but the package could just be that they both miss.

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