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Limited and Movie Predictions (Part 6)

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    Tyler
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    #1203580456

    Whats might be misunderstood about the Dever back and forth is that there may be a perception that those of us not predicting her are doing so because we are lukewarm about the show/don’t stan the performances. To be clear, I love Dever and I love the show, far far more than Little Fires Everywhere. The issue is the fact that this conversation is existing in the first place for Dever, but not for Wever, which kind of proves indirectly that they are less of a package deal than Washington and Witherspoon. I think LFE can miss series and essentially get its two leads in and nothing else above the line, where as Unbelievable can get series, writing, directing, actress and supporting actress while still missing Dever, which sucks, but who do you take out?

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    Dame Mandy Moore
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    #1203580460

    I made the comparisons to Ellis and Nash to debunk the theory that smaller lead performances are immediately at a disadvantage, not because I think the two gals are similar to Dever. And lol, Unbelievable snagged four Globes noms as opposed to WTSU’s zero and one SAG nom just like WTSU’s one. Yes, it was a stronger acting player at the Emmys than Unbelievable will be, but that’s also because it had a cast of like 50 actors, most of whom were submitted.

    I can’t believe you are saying this, I mean, you can’t be serious. When They See Us was clearly snubbed because of racial issues while the entire Unbelievable cast is white. This comparasion was unfair and dishonest, so with all due respect, educate yourself.

    "Do not let your hearts be troubled. Trust in God; trust also in me."
    - Mandy Moore
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    Bee
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    #1203580463

    The ones that are going to benefit the most from the acting branch are Watchmen and Mrs. America as they have entire ensembles with supporting actors that are likely to get multiple noms for each. They can easily overperform.

    Kerry and/or Reese aren’t missing. They are two prior Emmy nominees who are facing off each other damn near every episode of a late night soap. One or both will make it in. There’s no way both will be snubbed in a group of 5 just because people are overtly hyped by TCA nominations and the hope for Unorthodox somehow splashing. Kaitlyn made TCA but that’s a group of 7. Can she make it in a group of FIVE where King, Blanchett, Wever, Washington, and Witherspoon are all huge name checks who the Emmys have embraced before is the ultimate question.

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    jacob121
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    #1203580465

    I think LFE can miss series and essentially get its two leads in and nothing else above the line

    Does this makes sense though? Where’s the precedent?

    that’s a group of 7.

    A group of seven across all drama categories, though. It’s more competitive than her Emmy category.

    My argument re: Dever isn’t centered around her TCA nomination, even though that helps her case, it’s more based on my assessment of Unbelievable’s overall place in the race. At least in my estimation, it is a top contender and its actors are by default more likely to get nominated. Not rocket science.

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    Bee
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    #1203580476

    A group of seven across all drama categories, though. It’s more competitive than her Emmy category.

    My argument re: Dever isn’t centered around her TCA nomination, even though that helps her case, it’s more based on my assessment of Unbelievable’s overall place in the race. At least in my estimation, it is a top contender and its actors are by default more likely to get nominated. Not rocket science.

    While that’s impressive on her end, she isn’t competing in the same category as they are. The people who didn’t get in, like Olivia Colman, Jennifer Aniston, Laura Linney, Jason Bateman, they’re gonna be fine. They could all still end up winning their categories when it comes to the Emmys, specifically. Kaitlyn Dever is, specifically, in a category of five nominees. Her situation is more unfortunate than theirs. She isn’t competitive for a win so that doesn’t make her undeniable. You already have 3 virtual locks (King, Blanchett, Wever) and she’s going against two heavyweights (Witherspoon and Washington) where they are capital A ACTING in every single episode, literal bait. That’s the difference.

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    wolfali
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    #1203580496

    I made the comparisons to Ellis and Nash to debunk the theory that smaller lead performances are immediately at a disadvantage, not because I think the two gals are similar to Dever. And lol, Unbelievable snagged four Globes noms as opposed to WTSU’s zero and one SAG nom just like WTSU’s one. Yes, it was a stronger acting player at the Emmys than Unbelievable will be, but that’s also because it had a cast of like 50 actors, most of whom were submitted.

    Are you seriously using the Globes as an argument? Because by that logic then you really should be predicting Kieran Culkin to get in over Bradley Whitford and Helen Mirren to get in (the former of which you aren’t and the latter of which no one is because that would be delusional).

    I think it’s likely that When They See Us lost the momentum to dominate at the Globes and SAG after it lost the Emmy (this is arguably why Sam Rockwell won at SAG). If you’re arguing that it got all those nominations because it had a big ensemble cast then why didn’t Sharp Objects get Chris Messina and Eliza Scanlen in? Why didn’t A Very English Scandal get BAFTA role nominated Monica Dolan in? Why didn’t Fosse/Verdon get Nortbert Leo Butz in? The answer? Because they weren’t strong acting players and When They See Us was.

    Why is everyone so confident that Unbelievable isn’t #2?   

    Because there are shows called Mrs. America and Watchmen.

    FYC Emmys : THE MARVELOUS MRS. MAISEL, SUCCESSION AND THE CROWN IN ALL CATEGORIES. Tony Shalhoub ("Maisel"), Cate Blanchett ("Mrs. America"), Matthew Macfadyen, Jeremy Strong, Sarah Snook ("Succession"), Tracey Ullman ("Mrs. America") and Louis Gossett Jr. ("Watchmen")

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    Reis
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    #1203580511

    Because there are shows called Mrs. America and Watchmen.

    And why you think they liked Mrs. America more than Unbelievable?

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    wolfali
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    #1203580514

    And why you think they liked Mrs. America more than Unbelievable?

    Because it is more recent, aired at the right time and unlike Unbelievable (although I do admit this could potentially happen due to how many episodes they have submitted) hasn’t shown weakness with the directors branch.

    FYC Emmys : THE MARVELOUS MRS. MAISEL, SUCCESSION AND THE CROWN IN ALL CATEGORIES. Tony Shalhoub ("Maisel"), Cate Blanchett ("Mrs. America"), Matthew Macfadyen, Jeremy Strong, Sarah Snook ("Succession"), Tracey Ullman ("Mrs. America") and Louis Gossett Jr. ("Watchmen")

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    hopelesstar
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    #1203580550

    I lowkey want Dever to miss just to create a media outrage of the new Emmy rules being a disavantage for newcomers. Considering how much critics seem to love her, it’s not far stretched to imagine them rioting on nomination morning if she misses.

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    wolfali
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    #1203580553

    I lowkey want Dever to miss just to create a media outrage of the new Emmy rules being a disavantage for newcomers. Considering how much critics seem to love her, it’s not far stretched to imagine them rioting on nomination morning if she misses.

    Or if Washington misses and a media outrage is (deservingly) created because of how the new Emmy rules disadvantage poc.

    Although sadly I have a feeling the media will be more outraged by Dever missing than Washington..

    FYC Emmys : THE MARVELOUS MRS. MAISEL, SUCCESSION AND THE CROWN IN ALL CATEGORIES. Tony Shalhoub ("Maisel"), Cate Blanchett ("Mrs. America"), Matthew Macfadyen, Jeremy Strong, Sarah Snook ("Succession"), Tracey Ullman ("Mrs. America") and Louis Gossett Jr. ("Watchmen")

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    jacob121
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    #1203580578

    While that’s impressive on her end, she isn’t competing in the same category as they are.

    Yes, she beat everyone in her category and everyone not nominated from every other drama category – that’s why it’s so impressive…

    Not saying there isn’t a viable Reese/Kerry argument but that ain’t it.

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    hopelesstar
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    #1203580580

    But but I have been told Little Fires Everywhere wasn’t popular and Hulu certainly has lied about its ratings, then why is it getting a viral tweet in July?

    https://twitter.com/noelreivax/status/1281267526928863232?s=19

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    ReginaIsKing
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    #1203580594

    But but I have been told Little Fires Everywhere wasn’t popular and Hulu certainly has lied about its ratings, then why is it getting a viral tweet in July? https://twitter.com/noelreivax/status/1281267526928863232?s=19

    But somehow social media polls and IMDb incels say otherwise

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    Jays
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    #1203580621

    Why is everyone so confident that Unbelievable isn’t #2?

    I mean, even if it isn’t, it’s third at worst.

    That means its among the series frontrunners and that its actors should get increased scrutiny for nominations.

    Dever got Globe, TCA, and Critics Choice.

    If voters are interested in checking out the show and they only watch one episode – it’s her showcase.

    I’m just not getting convinced at this point that Kerry and Reese are ahead of her. Maybe they are a package deal but the package could just be that they both miss.

    Lol I was about to say this. Unbelievable being ahead of Mrs. America isn’t a wild statement. It could very well be true lol, I think people have hesitated to believe so because it aired a while ago. It was a hit on Netflix, it’s subject matter is extremely timely and it’s likely to get writing and directing nominations like Mrs. America. It could also easily get all three woman nominated.

    Unlike Mrs. America, it also just seems to have generated more passion. I loved both series so I don’t really have a hand here but Mrs. America seems like a pretty weak #2 right now.

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    Jays
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    #1203580631

    While that’s impressive on her end, she isn’t competing in the same category as they are. The people who didn’t get in, like Olivia Colman, Jennifer Aniston, Laura Linney, Jason Bateman, they’re gonna be fine. They could all still end up winning their categories when it comes to the Emmys, specifically. Kaitlyn Dever is, specifically, in a category of five nominees. Her situation is more unfortunate than theirs. She isn’t competitive for a win so that doesn’t make her undeniable. You already have 3 virtual locks (King, Blanchett, Wever) and she’s going against two heavyweights (Witherspoon and Washington) where they are capital A ACTING in every single episode, literal bait. That’s the difference.

    I think it’s a complete toss up for the last three spots right now between the LFE ladies and Dever, but Dever is also captial A acting as well lol. She’s crying almost every moment she’s on screen and she’s playing the most sympathetic character amongst all the nominees.

    I think arguments could be made for any of Witherspoon, Washington or Dever missing (though I think Witherspoon is locked) so the back and forth is pretty moot since nobody is going to randomly present a point we’ve all been missing.

    I think we all can agree that if there were 6 slots, we’d have clear consensus here. I never bought into the Haas hype to begin with.

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