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Limited and Movie Predictions (Part 6)

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    boss
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    #1203580974

    Because it is more recent, aired at the right time

    People claim the importance of campaigns and being a priority and then say shows are seen when they air as if screeners have no bearing. So many voters must have seen Unbelievable and other fall/summer shows during the past couple of months.

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    wolfali
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    #1203581059

    This may sound crazy to suggest but I wonder if we’re underestimating Daisy-Edgar Jones here for the nomination. I mean people keep saying that a line up of at least one Unbelievable or LFE actress and two actresses from one of those shows is locked but is it really? I know we’ve been talking about Shira Hass being a potential spoiler but if voters are going to vote for Mescal and as some are predicting Normal People in Series and Directing then why won’t they check off Edgar-Jones too? Yes Mescal’s performance was more acclaimed (although I personally preferred Edgar-Jones) but that doesn’t mean Edgar Jones’s performance was also not acclaimed.

    I mean it’s not as if visibility is an issue for Normal People anyway. Just to clarify I don’t see her getting in ahead of Wever or Witherspoon (I think they are solidly ahead of their co-stars in voting) but I wonder if she may be ahead of Washington and Dever. Then again Normal People wasn’t strong enough at TCA to get one actor in or overcome vote splitting whilst Unbelievable managed to get its two leads in.

    FYC Emmys : THE MARVELOUS MRS. MAISEL, SUCCESSION AND THE CROWN IN ALL CATEGORIES. Tony Shalhoub ("Maisel"), Cate Blanchett ("Mrs. America"), Matthew Macfadyen, Jeremy Strong, Sarah Snook ("Succession"), Tracey Ullman ("Mrs. America") and Louis Gossett Jr. ("Watchmen")

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    Luca
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    #1203581069

    I don’t even think Edgar-Jones is in the top 8. Paul Mescal stole her thunder for that show.

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    mafro987
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    #1203581199

    In terms of online buzz Mescal obviously received more, but there’s no real reason why voters who actually watched Normal People would check Mescal off and then not check Edgar-Jones off. It’s a two-hander. The real difference between the two is the competition in their respective categories. For example, I preferred Edgar-Jones to Mescal, but she would only place 4th in my personal actress category while Mescal would win my actor category.

    For Your Consideration:

    Best International Feature: Instinct (The Netherlands)
    Best Actress: Carice van Houten (Instinct)

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    wolfali
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    #1203581230

    In terms of online buzz Mescal obviously received more, but there’s no real reason why voters who actually watched Normal People would check Mescal off and then not check Edgar-Jones off. It’s a two-hander. The real difference between the two is the competition in their respective categories. For example, I preferred Edgar-Jones to Mescal, but she would only place 4th in my personal actress category while Mescal would win my actor category.

    I agree.

    I don’t even think Edgar-Jones is in the top 8. Paul Mescal stole her thunder for that show.

    At worst she is 8. I don’t see her below anyone else other than Blanchett, Dever, King, Washington, Wever, Witherspoon and potentially Haas.

    Whilst Mescal has more buzz and obviously is far likelier for many reasons it is worth mentioning that they both have been campaigning a lot and often have been campaigning together. As the user above said Normal People is a two-hander so it isn’t impossible for both to get in.

    FYC Emmys : THE MARVELOUS MRS. MAISEL, SUCCESSION AND THE CROWN IN ALL CATEGORIES. Tony Shalhoub ("Maisel"), Cate Blanchett ("Mrs. America"), Matthew Macfadyen, Jeremy Strong, Sarah Snook ("Succession"), Tracey Ullman ("Mrs. America") and Louis Gossett Jr. ("Watchmen")

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    Eden
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    #1203581234

    I don’t think Edgar-Jones is too far-fetched. Mescal has an advantage because he has bigger name visibility, but Edgar-James is, to put it weirdly, “ballot-accessible”, meaning not only is she at the beginning, but she’s also part of a category that doesn’t have a lot of contenders and therefore is easier for the whole voting body to see her name. Therefore, if you’ve seen the show and liked it, I don’t see why you wouldn’t vote for both leads. Of course, makes more sense to assume that more voters have seen Unbelievable and Little Fires Everywhere than Normal People.

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    mafro987
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    #1203581264

    A simplified explanation – Edgar-Jones is competing against contenders from four of the strongest shows in the field (Watchmen, Mrs America, Unbelievable, Little Fires Everywhere). Mescal isn’t even a certainty to make it into his category despite the massive disparity in competition, so it’s understandably hard to envision Daisy getting in.

    For Your Consideration:

    Best International Feature: Instinct (The Netherlands)
    Best Actress: Carice van Houten (Instinct)

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    wolfali
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    #1203581543

    I have no idea of how to place the Supporting Actress category. In terms of nominations any of the women I’m predicting (apart from Tracey Ullman and Uzo Aduba) could be first or second. I mean could Mrs. America end up getting 5 out of 6 of the slots? It’s not impossible (I’d say it would get all of the slots had Jean Smart not been here).

    FYC Emmys : THE MARVELOUS MRS. MAISEL, SUCCESSION AND THE CROWN IN ALL CATEGORIES. Tony Shalhoub ("Maisel"), Cate Blanchett ("Mrs. America"), Matthew Macfadyen, Jeremy Strong, Sarah Snook ("Succession"), Tracey Ullman ("Mrs. America") and Louis Gossett Jr. ("Watchmen")

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    GregSprinkles
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    #1203581557

    Mrs. America doesn’t have the buzz to get five actresses in one category, especially one that includes three acclaimed performances from Emmy favorites/previous winners.

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    Bee
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    #1203581578

    Not even the strongest of contenders have hogged 5/6 slots. Mrs. America’s maximum amount will be 4 but I’m predicting 3 actresses.

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    wolfali
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    #1203581580

    Mrs. America doesn’t have the buzz to get five actresses in one category, especially one that includes three acclaimed performances from Emmy favorites/previous winners.

    But does it need the buzz to get five actresses in? I mean it’s a fools errand to guess which non Byrne/Paulson actress(es) will get in but if voters have seen the show and are checking off people like Byrne, Paulson, Aduba, Ullman and/or Marindale off then I don’t see how it’s impossible for them to get five actresses in this category. I mean people have been talking about a possible tie in Lead Actress but no one’s been talking about the fact there could be a tie here.

    I don’t think Janney has a chance after that TCA shut out of Bad Education.

    FYC Emmys : THE MARVELOUS MRS. MAISEL, SUCCESSION AND THE CROWN IN ALL CATEGORIES. Tony Shalhoub ("Maisel"), Cate Blanchett ("Mrs. America"), Matthew Macfadyen, Jeremy Strong, Sarah Snook ("Succession"), Tracey Ullman ("Mrs. America") and Louis Gossett Jr. ("Watchmen")

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    wolfali
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    #1203581582

    Not even the strongest of contenders have hogged 5/6 slots. Mrs. America’s maximum amount will be 4 but I’m predicting 3 actresses.

    But has any contender had that many people in their ensemble who had big names/were Emmy darlings and were worthy of nominations in an open field?

    FYC Emmys : THE MARVELOUS MRS. MAISEL, SUCCESSION AND THE CROWN IN ALL CATEGORIES. Tony Shalhoub ("Maisel"), Cate Blanchett ("Mrs. America"), Matthew Macfadyen, Jeremy Strong, Sarah Snook ("Succession"), Tracey Ullman ("Mrs. America") and Louis Gossett Jr. ("Watchmen")

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    GregSprinkles
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    #1203581588

    But does it need the buzz to get five actresses in? I mean it’s a fools errand to guess which non Byrne/Paulson actress(es) will get in but if voters have seen the show and are checking off people like Byrne, Paulson, Aduba, Ullman and/or Marindale off then I don’t see how it’s impossible for them to get five actresses in this category. I mean people have been talking about a possible tie in Lead Actress but no one’s been talking about the fact there could be a tie here. I don’t think Janney has a chance after that TCA shut out of Bad Education.

    Janney has proven with Mom that she can get in even when her vehicle is a nonstarter.

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    wolfali
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    #1203581595

    Janney has proven with Mom that she can get in even when her vehicle is a nonstarter.

    But even with Mom she got support from the Critics. Arguably her performance in Bad Education is one of the best of her career, is on HBO (which obviously is likelier to get nominated at awards than CBS nowadays) and she’s competing in a very different field than the one she was with Mom.

    With TCA not even nominating Bad Education in Limited/Movie, she could very well get snubbed (as much as it pains me to say this).

    FYC Emmys : THE MARVELOUS MRS. MAISEL, SUCCESSION AND THE CROWN IN ALL CATEGORIES. Tony Shalhoub ("Maisel"), Cate Blanchett ("Mrs. America"), Matthew Macfadyen, Jeremy Strong, Sarah Snook ("Succession"), Tracey Ullman ("Mrs. America") and Louis Gossett Jr. ("Watchmen")

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    nevkm
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    #1203581600

    I also feel like we’re overestimating Mrs America. No way five are getting in. Even four seems a stretch.  Byrne, Martindale and maybe Ullman or Paulson.

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