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Limited and Movie Predictions (Part 6)

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    wolfali
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    #1203583605

    I’ve never had the show itself in. It’s only been Mescal. Our top 3 for limited series are locked, and after that, I have LFE and Defending Jacob. The former has turned out to be bigger than I ever thought it would be – plus, it has the relevant subtext – while the latter has been gaining momentum thanks to Apple’s campaign and people generally liking the show.

    Yeah no I didn’t mean in Series I meant like wait till you finish the whole programme before deciding whether to take it out completely above the line (i.e. Mescal).

    I am swapping between Defending Jacob and Normal People for the last slot and am confident in a line up that includes Watchmen, Mrs. America, Unbelievable and Little Fires Everywhere (more or less in that order).

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    wolfali
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    #1203583623

    This won’t happen in a million years but I want both Sarah Paulson and Holland Taylor to get nominated just for the laugh of it all.

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    puck05
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    #1203583630

    This won’t happen in a million years but I want both Sarah Paulson and Holland Taylor to get nominated just for the laugh of it all.

    It would even be more laughable if Cherry Jones got nominated too.

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    wolfali
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    #1203583653

    It would even be more laughable if Cherry Jones got nominated too.

    I was so confused by what you meant so I googled and LMAO I am now officially rooting for Cherry Jones, Holland Taylor and Sarah Paulson all to get nominated.

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    Jays
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    #1203583726

    I don’t think Normal People being about two white people falling in love would hurt its chances lol. It’s pretty universally praised, and it’s not like them being white is hammered home or something.

    I’m sticking with it in my 5th slot and I’m willing to die on that hill because it’s a really fantastic series and the buzz is there.

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    wolfali
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    #1203584117

    It could very, very easily happen and I’m actually predicting it to.

    Really? How so?

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    puck05
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    #1203584141

    I am not concerned about the quality of their performances, but about the fact that academy voters might not want to, this year, reward a show that centers on two (white) people falling in love.

    So you think TV Academy might not want to vote for a show about two white people falling in love but would want to vote for a show about a priviliged white suburban family intervened in a crime?

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    jacob121
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    #1203584593

    Yeah, actors are definetly the people that need more categories at the award shows.

    All the categories at SAG are actors…

    Niecy Nash, Mrs. America

    I know she didn’t have that much material but she was one of the standouts in the ensemble to me.

    Do I have to reconsider Aaron Paul and Hugh Jackman?

    Yes – I’ve been saying since the beginning that NP does not appeal to the average Emmy voter. I know TV Movies’ track record for actors is on a downward trajectory but you’d have to imagine all the positive word of mouth will result in a Jackman nom at the very least.

    don’t know why Smart and Janney are favored here more than her

    Because they are both competing for guaranteed program nominees…

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    wolfali
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    #1203584647

    Yes – I’ve been saying since the beginning that NP does not appeal to the average Emmy voter. I know TV Movies’ track record for actors is on a downward trajectory but you’d have to imagine all the positive word of mouth will result in a Jackman nom at the very least.

    I really think we’re overestimating Aaron Paul. He literally got shut of every precursor including the Critics Choice Awards (where he went from a win to a snub). I mean if the critics (who love Breaking Bad more than anyone) nominate Rhea Seehorn at TCA but shut El Camino out completely and nominate Plemons and give El Camino the win at CC but shut out Paul that really says something.

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    jacob121
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    #1203584749

    I really think we’re overestimating Aaron Paul.

    Oh he’s shaky for sure. My comment was more in reference to Hugh Jackman.

    I still have Paul in fifth but I am tempted to swap him out for a NGNG pick.

    Personally, I do not buy Evans either – not saying it’s fair or accurate but there will be a sizable chunk of voters who only see him as Captain America and will not respect him as a serious actor. That’s just the reality.

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    wolfali
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    #1203584764

    Oh he’s shaky for sure. My comment was more in reference to Hugh Jackman. I still have Paul in fifth but I am tempted to swap him out for a NGNG pick. Personally, I do not buy Evans either – not saying it’s fair or accurate but there will be a sizable chunk of voters who only see him as Captain America and will not respect him as a serious actor. That’s just the reality.

    That’s a good point. However he has distinguished himself amongst people in the industry for actually acting quite well in some films (i.e. Gifted) and don’t forget he received some of the strongest reviews of the Knives Out ensemble and some of that films leftover buzz could help him here.

    Also for your NGNG pick I’d recommend going for either Mescal, Spector, Holland, Pope or Tovey. Mescal for obvious reasons, Spector because I think The Plot Against America might surprise in Series after its TCA nom, Pope because his performance was actually acclaimed in the worst Hollywood reviews, Holland because he’s so underrated and Tovey because he actually has some buzz from his role in the recent production of Who’s Afraid of Virginia Wolf? and probably would have been more in the conversation had the Tonys gone ahead this year (he was one of the nomination frontrunners).

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    OneAndOnly
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    #1203584769

    My NGNG Pick for Limited/Movie is…

    J.K Simmons, Defending Jacob.

    Have a great day if you see this!

    FYC: Anthony Hopkins- The Father
    FYC: Chadwick Boseman - Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Male/Straight/BLM

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    Riley Chow
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    #1203584863

    Lead actor has six strong contenders in my eyes.  (Aaron Paul is not one of them.)  Paul Mescal is the obvious or most logical miss, but I refuse to take him out because he seems to be one of the easier ways that I can account for this unusual season.  Both because the season is longer and people are quarantined, people are definitely watching more shows that they would not in another year and this has to manifest in the nominations somehow.  The academy has been making trendier choices lately, including in this category, so I do not really doubt that the academy will go for Mescal if they see him; it is more just a question of whether larger biases prevent them from watching Normal People in the first place, which I have already decided will be overcome with this year’s specific circumstances.  Not saying that it is going to overcome this across the board, but we have a perfect storm here of the most praised aspect of Normal People being in the weakest limited category above the line. (Shira Haas is not as lucky for example.)

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    jacob121
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    #1203584875

    My NGNG would be slotting in Spector – I actually had him in sixth before the category was cut down.

    Yes, I know all the stats about David Simon, his shows, and his actors.

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    ReginaIsKing
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    #1203584935

    Aaron Paul flopping for both of his performances this year – one vastly mediocre and honestly ruined a show for me, while the other I’m sure was boring as hell – is a moment in history that I will look back favorably on.

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