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Limited and Movie Predictions (Part 6)

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    Jays
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    #1203558203

    Believe what you want. If anything, I’d take out Reese (but I still have 100/1 odds) over Sandra. I have had Aniston in and out – will probably find space for her again in the end – but it would be a pretty rough look for this category to be all white and I wouldn’t currently predict that, like you are.

    Not the thread for it, but isn’t there some stat where the SAG winner in drama actress hasn’t missed at the Emmy’s in a loooong time. It would be weird for that stat to break considering how big of a name Aniston is, how she’s a previous winner, and she’s really acting in TMS.

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    Gabriel P. (gabspss)
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    #1203558235

    Not the thread for it, but isn’t there some stat where the SAG winner in drama actress hasn’t missed at the Emmy’s in a loooong time. It would be weird for that stat to break considering how big of a name Aniston is, how she’s a previous winner, and she’s really acting in TMS.

    I just checked and actually that never really happened. All SAG winners were nominated at the Emmy after their SAG wins. The only exception was Edie Falco for the last season of Sopranos and that, of course, was because her show ended.

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    jacob121
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    #1203558242

    Yes, I am aware of the stat. Like I said, I’ll probably end up slotting her in again in the end but I like to play around with my options and see how it feels. I am predicting a Morning Show underperformance – how severe, I’m not sure.

    I could predict the Goldderby top 6 in every category and do reasonably well – I’ve done this enough times to be pretty bored with that.

    I do love that not predicting Aniston has everyone seemingly so plucked though.

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    Luca
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    #1203558326

    Believe what you want. If anything, I’d take out Reese (but I still have 100/1 odds) over Sandra. I have had Aniston in and out – will probably find space for her again in the end – but it would be a pretty rough look for this category to be all white and I wouldn’t currently predict that, like you are.

    Emmys FYC - "Unbelievable" and "The Handmaid's Tale" in all categories; Viola Davis in Best Drama Actress for the final season of "HTGAWM;" "Ozark:" Drama Series, Laura Linney (Best Actress) and Julia Garner (Best Supporting Actress)

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    boss
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    #1203558357

    I agree with the majority of this, but Aunjanue deserved that nomination regardless of category placement (and she deserves a nomination this year as well, though she is very unlikely to get it).

    Riley didn’t say that she didn’t deserve because she gave a bad performance. Her performance was good but no way belongs to lead category. People who vote for awards should be knowledgable on contenders but what we are observing lately is that certain shows get checked off in every category.

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    AayaanUpadhyaya
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    #1203558364

    Yeah, I am still stunned that Aunjanue Ellis got that nomination.

    I wasn’t that surprised with Asante Blackk and IIRC, I would have predicted him if he was in the predictions centre which I don’t think he was. He was incredible in Episode 1 and……. (mild spoilers)…… the way Episode 2 ended with him playing the trumpet was my favourite moment from the series.

    Marsha Stephanie Blake too made sense to me in hindsight because the last two slots in that category were completely up in the air, and Blake did have some great material in Episode 2 and 3.

    But Aunjanue Ellis was these voters throwing out all logical sense and nominating an extended cameo in the LEAD category. I have to agree with Riley and wonder where those voters will go this time, and all signs point to Watchmen.

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    mafro987
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    #1203558407

    Riley didn’t say that she didn’t deserve because she gave a bad performance. Her performance was good but no way belongs to lead category. People who vote for awards should be knowledgable on contenders but what we are observing lately is that certain shows get checked off in every category.

    I wasn’t implying that he thought Aunjanue gave a bad performance. I understand people who are rigid in terms of only backing category placements that truly reflect the size/nature of the role, but supporting performances are submitted and have gotten into lead categories before. I just took issue with the claim that it was ‘ballot abuse’, or that voters weren’t in their right mind (although it was probably meant to be humorous/a tongue in cheek comment).

    For Your Consideration:

    Best International Feature: Instinct (The Netherlands)
    Best Actress: Carice van Houten (Instinct)

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    Heptapod
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    #1203559991

    End of June predictions. Amount of nominees in each category is just a guess.

    LIMITED SERIES:
    Little Fires Everywhere
    Mrs. America
    Normal People
    Unbelievable
    ***Watchmen

    TV MOVIE:
    American Son
    ***Bad Education
    The Clark Sisters
    El Camino
    Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt

    LIMITED ACTRESS:
    ***Cate Blanchett
    Kaitlyn Dever
    Regina King
    Merritt Wever
    Reese Witherspoon

    LIMITED ACTOR:
    Russell Crowe
    Hugh Jackman
    ***Paul Mescal
    Aaron Paul
    Mark Ruffalo

    LIMITED SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
    Uzo Aduba
    ***Rose Byrne
    Toni Collette
    Sarah Paulson
    Jean Smart
    Tracey Ullman

    LIMITED SUPPORTING ACTOR:
    Jovan Adepo
    Tituss Burgess
    Tim Blake Nelson
    Jim Parsons
    Jesse Plemons
    ***John Slattery

    LIMITED WRITING:
    Mrs. America
    Normal People
    The Plot Against America
    Unbelievable
    ***Watchmen

    LIMITED DIRECTING:
    Little Fires Everywhere
    ***Mrs. America
    Unbelievable
    Watchmen
    Watchmen

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    24fanatic
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    #1203560119

    I’m ready for Watchmen to over-perform. No other series is as timely as to what is happening in America right now than this one. I mean for crying out loud Trump had to have his first campaign rally in Tulsa of all places!!!

    Plus, I think When They See Us underperforming in Emmy wins last year will help Watchmen. Just a hunch.

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    ruckp
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    #1203560283

    Watchmen will win in a cakewalk, and it needs no Trump or narrative such as it’s about racism, or it has black people at its center in order to win. It’ll win cause it’s overall great television. I hear that a lot lately, When They See Us has nothing to do with it. I guess some people are still bitter over its rightful loss.

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    Luca
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    #1203560300

    When They See Us has nothing to do with it

    This.

    Emmys FYC - "Unbelievable" and "The Handmaid's Tale" in all categories; Viola Davis in Best Drama Actress for the final season of "HTGAWM;" "Ozark:" Drama Series, Laura Linney (Best Actress) and Julia Garner (Best Supporting Actress)

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    Ivo Stoyanov
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    #1203560642

    Ivo Stoyanov wrote:
    If she and the show both get in, I completely see Amit Rahav getting in as well, he was amazing, his role was as difficult as hers, maybe even more and he was almost a co-lead, what a stellar performance.

    At least someone feels the same way as me! We had this debate a week or so ago and most people disagreed with that.

    Yes, I completely agree with you, I just read it now (back then I tried not to spoil myself), there other substantial roles, Rahav is definitely a co-lead and Jeff Wilbusch has a very complex and tragic role.

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    jacob121
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    #1203560663

    Honestly, I hadn’t been considering Viola seriously a few weeks ago but your relentless arguments in her favor are actually starting to convince me.

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    Luca
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    #1203560713

    Honestly, I hadn’t been considering Viola seriously a few weeks ago but your relentless arguments in her favor are actually starting to convince me.

    I am not going to into any details since this is the wrong thread for that (lol), but she’s about to crack the top 6 in our odds, which kind of says it all. I didn’t expect anyone outside of the Murder fans to have increased confidence in her after that finale, but the fact that she went from 11th to 7th within a week, from 150 people predicting her to 675 (0 to 30+ for the win) tells me that other people must have picked up on the buzz.

    Emmys FYC - "Unbelievable" and "The Handmaid's Tale" in all categories; Viola Davis in Best Drama Actress for the final season of "HTGAWM;" "Ozark:" Drama Series, Laura Linney (Best Actress) and Julia Garner (Best Supporting Actress)

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    Julian14
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    #1203561612

    Just finished years and years. Absolutely one of the best shows of the past year. Is there no chance for nominations?

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