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Poll: What would have won the 2019 Emmy in a head-to-head?

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Poll: What would have won the 2019 Emmy in a head-to-head?
The Crown season 3
Game of Thrones season 8
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    Riley Chow
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    #1203327128

    Most of the regular Emmy players in drama extended their hiatuses because they did not want to lose to Game of Thrones.  Stranger Things finished filming in November, then did not release until July.  It was ridiculous.  Big Little Lies finished filming in August, but HBO did not want to cannibalize itself.  The last to duck out was The Crown, which was even in the Gold Derby predictions centre until mid-March when Netflix was finally ready to say that it definitely would not be competing.  The Handmaid’s Tale opted to miss eligibility barely, but had its cake and ate it too by submitting orphaned episodes.  Even Homeland skipped and this also happened to coincide with exceptionally long hiatuses by Mr. Robot and Westworld.  Meanwhile, Disney+ had been stockpiling original content for years, but held off for a fall launch opposite Apple.

    This all contributed to the easiest path possible for Game of Thrones and it received a record number of nominations.  But karma won the day because Game of Thrones had its worst season.  Conventional wisdom shifted from it being unbeatable to being extremely beatable—if there had been any competition, which there was not.  We then hyped up the bloodbath that would ensue at the guilds when Game of Thrones actually would face off against all of the regulars.  But the unexpected happened again (and again) when each of the challengers disappointed.

    People were enjoying Big Little Lies well enough, but it was marred by the optics of an exposé and it fell into “rotten” territory with its finale.  The Handmaid’s Tale continued its critical descent.  Stranger Things came back to a record audience size, but the buzz was just gone and critical reviews were down slightly.  Even Homeland fell further behind in production and randomly missed 2019 entirely.  Disney+ turned out to not to have any above-the-line contenders and all of Apple’s shows were terrible to varying degrees.

    The stage was set with the new Oscar-winning case and the pressure was on again for The Crown to be our saviour and it was… good, I guess?  After all of the anticipation for everything above, the big stories of the winter awards were Succession season 2 and Watchmen out of left field.  Big Little Lies missed DGA and WGA after winning both last time.  The Handmaid’s Tale missed PGA and DGA.  Stranger Things was nominated hardly anywhere outside of SAG and it won nothing.  The Crown showed up consistently in nominations and it won SAG ensemble for the first time, which is an achievement, but it also did not win a single other guild award.

    Even though Game of Thrones was poorly received unlike the rest, it had buzz, a narrative and passion that its supposed challengers generally lacked.  It missed WGA and lost PGA and DGA, but it won its first SAG Award above the line and it still cleaned up below the line.  So knowing all that we know now, in an alternate timeline in which the regulars did not chicken out, would The Crown have beaten Game of Thrones?

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    Luca
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    #1203327258

    I know GD is going to say The Crown, but it would have still been Game of Thrones, easily. S3 of TC would have needed to blow up in order to beat GOT, and it didn’t. Whether GOT was going to win anything else last year, it was always going to win drama series as a send-off because guess what, people do get emotional about TV and going off that standing ovation the cast got, there was still a lot of love for that show left by the end.

    Oscar FYC -- Give Viola Davis her second Oscar!

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    Ivo Stoyanov
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    #1203327307

    I know GD is going to say The Crown, but it would have still been Game of Thrones, easily. S3 of TC would have needed to blow up in order to beat GOT, and it didn’t. Whether GOT was going to win anything else last year, it was always going to win drama series as a send-off because guess what, people do get emotional about TV and going off that standing ovation the cast got, there was still a lot of love for that show left by the end.

    The Crown would have won easily, same goes for Succession S2 if it would have aired early (along with GoT for example). Veep also said goodbye and its cast also got standing ovation, but did not win anything, because it had a lesser season (million times superior than GoT though) and a real competition, so no one got nostalgic.

    Even with the barren competition described perfectly by Riley, the TV Academy found a way to reward others shows in Directing, Writing , Acting (with the exception of Dinklage) and Cinematography.It won by default and this win already aged badly.

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    DvirBA
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    #1203327352

    Considering it seemed like the academy didn’t mind the controversy at all (still 32 nominations and 12 wins, even if the competition wasn’t as strong as always it’s still pretty impressive), and considering the third season of the Crown, while amazing, didn’t blow up quite like I expected I’d still say GoT would have taken this

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    methaddiction
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    #1203327368

    Game of Thrones was going to win no matter what if The Crown couldn’t win over it in 2018 it wasn’t going to do it in 2019.

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    Couverture
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    #1203327422

    Seeing how The Crown S3 performed with the guilds, it would still be Thrones. The former was nominated at just SAG, PGA, WGA, ADG and CDG. It only won SAG Ensemble, which is big but it’s offset by GoT winning for Dinklage at a place where the latter hasn’t done very well historically. The Crown even lost CDG after its first two seasons won at both the Emmys and the guild and was snubbed by ASC after winning it. Except ASC and WGA, Thrones was nominated by every other guild. It even won its second ACE Eddie and Artios awards.

    The Crown was a nice hypothetical alternative/frontrunner but it is clear from how it performed at the winter awards, that it was all just hype. It was never a threat to win.

    Edit: I’m not surprised The Crown is leading the poll because GoT S8 isn’t popular here at all, but the data can’t be refuted. The Crown sort of performed worse with the guilds than it did in S2, where it was even nominated by the Sound Mixing guild. I think S2 was closer to a Drama Series victory than S3 would have been. It must be noted that S3 was found to be underwhelming compared to previous seasons, among both critics and fans.

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    Riley Chow
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    #1203328304

    The results have tipped the other way now. Perhaps people were compelled by your arguments. I need to clarify though that because of the truncated Oscar season, several guilds cut off eligibility early, so The Crown was actually ineligible for ACE, ASC and CAS, plus it was already ineligible for CSA because they use the Emmy eligibility. That is how it went from winning to not being nominated at ASC and CSA and the same goes for The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel at ACE and CAS. The Man in the High Castle and Watchmen were also ineligible at ASC, making the Game of Thrones snub worse. So The Crown not getting a ton of nominations below the line is not a knock on it.

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    forwardswill
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    #1203328414

    I was going to say GOT but then voted for The Crown because I suddenly realised that I think it would have easily won Actress, Supporting Actress, Directing and Writing and it would be kind of staggering for it to win all of those and not win series.

    (You could also argue the circumstances of The Crown’s return would have been more favourable than they were with the longer wait. Critics would have latched onto it as the only genuine alternative to GOT. I also think it would have had a different passion and support base to Thrones which was the biggest factor I felt was lacking in the other competitors, which all had much intersecting support.)

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    Riley Chow
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    #1203328460

    I like that point because I have been thinking about Drama Series too much in a vacuum. I disagree about Writing and Supporting Actress, but it indeed easily would have repeated in Directing and Lead Actress.

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    DvirBA
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    #1203328470

    I was going to say GOT but then voted for The Crown because I suddenly realised that I think it would have easily won Actress, Supporting Actress, Directing and Writing and it would be kind of staggering for it to win all of those and not win series.

    (You could also argue the circumstances of The Crown’s return would have been more favourable than they were with the longer wait. Critics would have latched onto it as the only genuine alternative to GOT. I also think it would have had a different passion and support base to Thrones which was the biggest factor I felt was lacking in the other competitors, which all had much intersecting support.)

    Succession would have still easily won Writing, as the sudden sweeps indicate.
    As for directing, I still can’t explain that Ozark win. It’s an unresolved mystery. Whatever happened there perhaps wouldn’t have changed at all even if The Crown was eligible.

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    Riley Chow
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    #1203328476

    Game of Thrones split directing votes two years in a row. Ozark was present both times and only won when The Crown was not there.

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    forwardswill
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    #1203328479

    Succession would have still easily won Writing, as the sudden sweeps indicate.

    The sweeps have come after its Emmy win though (and after the end of its season). Succession won with no one predicting it – indicating the scattered field that existed, one that was intensely lacking a frontrunner and so allowing a show with passion to fill the void. The Crown would have been the de facto frontrunner so there would never have been a gap to be filled.

    This said, writing is the category I am least sure TC would have won.

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    Riley Chow
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    #1203328571

    I disagree that Succession would have easily won Writing, but I would still bet on it as I did at the real Emmys. The Crown has never won a Writing award, nor has it won a Series award from critics or ever done that well in their top-ten lists, which have some overlap in taste. Succession seems to be more of a writers’ (and critics’) show and the writers’ branch tends to go for those unless the Series winner is sweeping, which we do not seem to saying The Crown would have.

    Going below the line, The Crown should have been able to repeat in Casting and Cinematography and I think that it would have picked up Editing too for a total of six wins opposite nine for Game of Thrones. Casting is a given after winning the previous season, starting from scratch and Game of Thrones having lost previously and not cast anyone. The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel had lost Cinematography to The Crown the previous season and immediately lost ASC to The Handmaid’s Tale, so its support did not run that deep and The Handmaid’s Tale had lost to The Crown. Editing had three Game of Thrones episodes, which would have split like the three did the year before when there was a proper alternative. Votes were also split among the challengers because a tie resulted in an additional nominee, which there would not have been with The Crown in contention.

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    Couverture
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    #1203329103

    I think Thrones would have won Editing even with The Crown. The Crown has never been nominated by the editor’s branch, even when it was nominated by the guild for its first season. The Long Night just won the ACE Eddie and unlike in 2017, it didn’t have to contend with another battle episode. Winterfell and The Iron Throne would have hardly pulled away enough votes for a show that was never popular with the branch to suddenly win over it. The Long Night won a total of 5 Creative Arts Emmys and even though much has been made about the cinematography, there was a clear appreciation for the other tech aspects of the episode by the Television Academy. It’s the second most awarded episode of the show (after Battle of the Bastards) after all.

    Cinematography isn’t a done deal for The Crown either. I don’t see ASC as a good indicator for support. Look at Game of Thrones winning thrice there and never at the Emmys or how some of their winners like Marco Polo, some GoT episodes aren’t even nominated by the Emmys. TMMM losing to THT at the ASC doesn’t indicate weak support when that happens here multiple times. I would also like to point out that Adriano Goldman, the DP who won the Emmy, BAFTA and the ASC, infact the only DP from the show to be recognised in any way, did not do any episode of S3. That itself would be a huge disadvantage for the show to repeat.

    The Emmy winning director Stephen Daldry didn’t return to direct either so I’m not confident in it repeating there as well. The directors branch likes their big names and The Crown doesn’t have that in S3. It isn’t a juggernaut like THT S1 to overcome that. Bateman could have still won. I actually think that’s exactly what would have happened.

    Writing was definitely not happening for The Crown. Unlike in previous years, there was some criticism of Peter Morgan’s writing by both critics and audiences. Succession’s support within that branch runs deep anyway so it wasn’t losing that Emmy.

    Lead Actress and Casting. It would have won those and maybe one more award and that’s not enough IMO.

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    Gabarnes43
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    #1203329112

    The Crown would have taken Actress, Supporting Actress and probably writing. Along with casting, Production design and costumes

    FYC 2020 EMMYS

    COMEDY- SCHITTS CREEK in all categories, Maya Rudolph, Eddie Murphy

    DRAMA- Killing Eve in all categories, HBC, Cicely Tyson, The Crown in directing

    LIMITED- UNBELIEVABLE, Normal People in writing and directing, Toni Collette, Tituss Burgess

    FYC OSCARS- Amy Adams

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