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Public Polls vs Gold Derby vs The Academy

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  • Kellyemm
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    Some fun to see who got it right!

    Decided to have a look at the three major public polls vs Gold Derby odds to pull the data to see who ends up being right for the acting races. This is, all in all, pretty cool in that there are only two categories where there seems to be universal agreeance – and in one of those the actual  public polls are very close (supporting actor comedy). The other, of course, is supporting actor – all three polls have Dinklage winning easily and GD also have him predicted by a landslide.

    The three polls are:

    Vanity Fair

    Buzzfeed (massive participation approx 30000 votes)

    TVLine (shorter run time now closed)

    Quite likely very different demographics.

     

    Actor Races:

    Lead Drama: Porter (V), Harington (B), Harington (T)

    Supporting Drama: Dinklage (V), Dinklage (B), Dinklage (T)

    Lead Comedy: Hader (V) Danson (B) Danson (T)

    Supporting Comedy: Shalhoub (V) Shalhoub (B) Shalhoub (T)

    Lead Limited: Harris (V) Harris (B) Harris (T)

    Supporting Limited: Skarsgard (V) Skarsgard (B) Skarsgard (T)

    Actress Races:

    Lead Drama: Comer (V) Clarke (B) Clarke (T)

    Supporting Drama: Christie (V) Christie (B) Christie (T)

    Lead Comedy: Louis Dreyfuss (V) O’Hara (B)  O’Hara (T)

    Supporting Comedy: Colman (V) McKinnon (B) Borstein (T)

    Lead Limited: Adams (V) Adams (B) Williams (T)

    Supporting Limited: Clarkson (V) Watson (B) Clarkson (T)

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    Kellyemm
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    Gold Derby Agrees with unanimous public polls:

    Supporting Actor Drama – Dinklage (cakewalk)

    Supporting Actor Comedy – Shalhoub (however all polls are close)

    Gold Derby Prediction Agrees with at least 1 other Public Poll

    Lead Actor Drama – Gold Derby prediction matches Vanity Fair Pick (Porter)

    Lead Actor Comedy – Gold Derby prediction matches Vanity Fair Pick (Hader)

    Lead Actress Comedy – Gold Derby prediction matches Vanity Fair Pick (Louis Dreyfuss)

    Supporting Actress Comedy – Gold Derby prediction matches TV Line Pick (Borstein)

    Lead Actress Limited – Gold Derby prediction matches TV Line Pick (Williams)

    Supporting Actress Limited – Gold Derby prediction matches Vanity and TV Line Pick (Clarkson)

    No one agrees but it’s close:

    Lead Actress Drama – Vanity Fair picks Comer (narrowly in a very tight three way race) Buzzfeed and TV Line pick Clarke, Gold Derby predicts Oh

    All 3 Polls agree on a winner but Gold Derby disagrees:

    Lead Actor Limited – All Polls pick Harris, Gold Derby picks Jherome (but picks Harris as 2nd)

    Supporting Actor Limited – All polls pick Skarsgard, Gold Derby picks Whishaw with Skarsgard 3rd

    Supporting Actress Drama – All polls pick Christie, Gold Derby picks Garner with Christie 5th

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    Kellyemm
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    https://www.vanityfair.com/emmys-ballot Vanity Fair

    https://www.buzzfeed.com/jamiejirak1/who-would-you-vote-for-in-the-emmy-acting-categories Buzzfeed

    TVLine are separate links

    COMEDY Breakdowns

    Lead Actress Comedy

    Vanity Fair Julia Louis Dreyfuss (37%), Phoebe Waller Bridge (31%), Rachel Brosnahan (13%) Catherine O’Hara (9%) Christina Applegate (8%) Natasha Lyonne (6%)

    Buzzfeed: Catherine O’Hara (22%) Rachel Brosnahan (18%) Christina Applegate (18%), Natasha Lyonne (15%) Phoebe Waller-Bridge (15%) Julia Louis Dreyfuss (12%)

    TVLine: Catherine O’Hara (35%) Julia Louis Dreyfuss (17%), Phoebe Waller Bridge (16%), Rachel Brosnahan (14%) Christina Appleate (11%), Natasha Lyonne (8%)

    Lead Actor Comedy:

    Buzzfeed: Ted Danson (37%) Bill Hader (25%) Eugene Levy (21%) Anthony Anderson (11%) Don Cheadle (4%) Michael Douglas (2%)

    Vanity Fair: Bill Hader (58%) Eugene Levy (16%) Ted Danson (15%) Michael Douglas (5%) Anthony Anderson (4%) Don Cheadle (4%)

    TV Line: Ted Danson (35%) Eugene Levy (33%) Bill Hader (18%) Anthony Anderson (6%), Michael Douglas (5%) Don Cheadle (3%)

    Supporting Actress Comedy:

    Buzzfeed: Kate McKinnon (34%) Alex Borstein (18%) Olivia Colman (17%) Betty Gilpin (10%) Anna Chlumsky (8%) Sian Clifford (6%) Marin Hinkle (4%) Sarah Goldberg (3%)

    Vanity Fair: Olivia Colman (36%) Alex Borstein (20%) Kate McKinnon (14%) Sian Clifford (11%) Betty Gilpin (8%) Anna Chlumsky (8%) Sarah Goldberg (5%) Marin Hinkle (2%)

    TV Line: Alex Borstein (23.75%), Betty Gilpin (14%), Kate McKinnon (14%) Olivia Colman (12%) Anna Chlumsky (12%) Sian Clifford (9%) Marin Hinkle (8%) Sarah Goldberg (6%)

    Supporting Actor Comedy:

    Buzzfeed: Tony Shalhoub (28%), Tony Hale (26%), Henry Winkler (24%), Anthony Carrigan (11%) Alan Arkin (7%) Stephen Root (4%)

    Vanity Fair: Tony Shalhoub (30%) Tony Hale (24%) Henry Winkler (21%)  Anthony Carrigan (14%) Alan Arkin (9%) Stephen Root (5%)

    TVLine: Tony Shalhoub (26%) Anthony Carrigan (23%), Tony Hale (21%), Henry Winkler (17%), Alan Arkin (8%) Stephen Root (6%)

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    Kellyemm
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    Lead Actor Limited
    Buzzfeed: Jared Harris (38%), Jharrel Jerome (24%) Mahershala Ali (18%) Hugh Grant (10%) Sam Rockwell (6%) Benicio Del Toro (4%)
    Vanity Fair: Jared Harris (31%) Jharrel Jerome (24%) Maheshala Ali (22%) Sam Rockwell (12%) Hugh Grant (11%) Benicio Del Toro (3%)
    TV Line: Jared Harris (28%) Jharrel Jerome (25%) Sam Rockwell (16%) Mahershala Ali (14%), Hugh Grant (10%), Benicio Del Toro (7%)

    Lead Actress Limited
    Buzzfeed: Amy Adams (34%), Joey King (32%), Niecy Nash (11%), Aunjanue Ellis (11%), Michelle Williams (8%) Patricia Arquette (4%)
    Vanity Fair: Amy Adams (40%) Michelle Williams (30%) Patricia Arquette (18%) Joey King (7%) Niecy Nash (5%) Aunjanue Ellis (3%)
    TV Line: Michelle Williams (35%), Amy Adams (27%) Patricia Arquette (15%), Joey King (11%), Niecy Nash (10%) Aunjanue Ellis (3%)

    Supporting Actress Limited
    Buzzfeed: Emily Watson (28%), Patricia Clarkson (26%), Patricia Arquette (24%), Marsha Stephanie Blake (12%) Vera Farmiga (7%), Margaret Qualley (3%)
    Vanity Fair: Patricia Clarkson (54%) Emily Watson (18%) Patricia Arquette (15%) Vera Farmiga (7%) Marsha Stephanie Blake (5%) Margaret Qualley (4%)
    TVLine: Patricia Clarkson: (34%) Emily Watson (23%) Patricia Arquette (20%) Vera Farmiga (8%) Margaret Qualley (8%) Marsha Stephanie Blake (8%)

    Supporting Actor Limited
    Buzzfeed: Stellan Skarsgard (37%) Asante Blackk (27%) Ben Whishaw (15%) Michael K Williams (9%) John Leguizamo (8%) Paul Dano (4%)
    Vanity Fair: Stellan Skarsgard (33%) Ben Whishaw (21%) Michael K Williams (21%) Paul Dano (10%) Asante Blackk (10%) John Lequizamo (8%)
    TV Line: Stellan Skarsgard (37%) Ben Whishaw (18%) Asante Blackk (16%) Michael K Willams (10%) Paul Dano (10%) John Leguizamo (8%)

    • This reply was modified 1 month ago by  Kellyemm.
    • This reply was modified 1 month ago by  Kellyemm.
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    Kellyemm
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    Lead Actor Drama

    Vanity Fair: Billy Porter (36%), Kit Harington (19%), Bob Odenkirk (17%) Jason Bateman (15%) Sterling K Brown (9%) Milo Ventimiglia (7%)

    Buzzfeed: Kit Harington (33%), Sterling K Brown (19%), Billy Porter (16%), Milo Ventimiglia (14%), Jason Bateman (9%), Bob Odenkirk (9%)

    TV Line : Kit Harington (30%) Billy Porter (20%), Milo Ventimiglia (18%), Bob Odenkirk (14%), Sterling K Brown (10%), Jason Bateman (8%)

    Lead Actress Drama

    Vanity Fair: Jodie Comer (30%), Sandra Oh (28%), Emilia Clarke (28%) Laura Linney (6%) Viola Davis (4%) Robin Wright (4%) Mandy Moore (2%)

    Buzzfeed: Emilia Clarke (35%) Jodie Comer (20%), Sandra Oh (18%), Mandy Moore (10%), Viola Davis (10%) Laura Linney (4%), Robin Wright (3%)

    TV Line : Emilia Clarke (39%) Jodie Comer (33%), Mandy Moore (10%) Sandra Oh (10%), Viola Davis (4%), Laura Linney (3%), Robin Wright (2%)

    Supporting Actor

    Vanity Fair: Peter Dinklage (51%), Nikolaj Coster Waldau (16%)  Jonathan Banks (13%), Alfie Allen (13%), Giancarlo Esposito (5%), Chris Sullivan (5%) Michael Kelly (3%)

    Buzzfeed: Peter Dinklage (53%) Alfie Allen (16%), Nikolaj Coster Waldau (10%), Chris Sullivan (8%) Giancarlo Esposito (5%), Jonathan Banks (5%) Michael Kelly (3%)

    TV Line : Peter Dinklage (31%) Nikolaj Coster Waldau (22%), Chris Sullivan (14%), Alfie Allen (13%), Jonathan Banks (11%), Giancarlo Esposito (5%), Michael Kelly (3%)

    Supporting Actress (Vanity Fair Poll)

    Vanity Fair: Gwendoline Christie (28%) Fiona Shaw (24%) Lena Headey (18%) Julia Garner (14%) Maisie Williams (12%) Sophie Turner (8%)

    Buzzfeed: Gwendoline Christie (29%) Sophie Turner (27%) Maisie Williams (19%) Lena Headey (12%) Fiona Shaw (8%) Julia Garner (5%)

    TV Line: Gwendoline Christie (34%) Maisie Williams (18%) Fiona Shaw (13%) Lena Headey (13%) Julia Garner (10%) Sophie Turner (10%)

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    Kellyemm
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    So: I am betting on Vanity Fair being the most accurate of the “public votes”

    If it’s Buzzfeed, kill me now.

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