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Rank Your Winner Predictions by Confidence

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  • forwardswill
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    #1202621823

    Thought this might be a fun thing to do as I was thinking about how many of my predictions I am less confident in even though GoldDerby rankings would have them as more likely. So, ranking my winners by my confidence in being correct:

    1. Black Mirror
    2. Rachel Brosnahan
    3. The Assassination of Gianni Versace
    4. “Pilot” – The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Writing)
    5. Darren Criss
    6. Donald Glover (Lead)
    7. “USS Callister” – Black Mirror
    8. The Handmaid’s Tale
    9. “The Man Who Would Be Vogue” – The Assassination of Gianni Versace
    10. Samira Wiley
    11. Elisabeth Moss
    12. Tiffany Haddish
    13. Alex Borstein
    14. F. Murray Abraham
    15. Regina King
    16. Atlanta
    17. “Teddy Perkins” – Atlanta
    18. Brandon Victor Dixon
    19. David Harbour
    20. Sterling K. Brown
    21. “June” – The Handmaid’s Tale
    22. Judith Light
    23. Brian Tyree Henry
    24. Bill Hader (Guest)
    25. “After” – The Handmaid’s Tale
    26. Lena Headey

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    Luca Giliberti
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    #1202621831

    Confidence?

    1. USS Callister
    2. Rachel Brosnahan
    3. Donald Glover
    4. Pilot – Maisel (Writing)

    Everything else? Not confident AT ALL.

    FYC Oscars 2019: Viola Davis (Widows) - Best Actress

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    Reis
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    #1202621833

    1. Donald Glover
    2. Rachel Brosnahan
    3. American Crime Story
    4. Darren Criss
    5. USS Callister (movie)
    6. USS Callister (writting)
    7. Jeff Daniels
    8. Atlanta
    9. Pilot (Marvelous Ms. Maisel)
    10. David Harbour
    11. Teddy Perkins
    12. Matthew Rhys
    13. Elisabeth Moss
    14. Game of Thrones
    15. Brian Tyree Henry
    16. June
    17. The Dragon and the Wolf
    18. Godless
    19. Lena Headey
    20. Rupaul’s Drag Race
    21. Michelle Dockery
    22. Betty Gilpin
    23. Letitia Wright

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    forwardswill
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    #1202621854

    Everything else? Not confident AT ALL.

    RANK ‘EM. Go on. I’m not actually confident in any of mine after the top 3.

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    Luca Giliberti
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    #1202621864

    Everything else? Not confident AT ALL.

    RANK ‘EM. Go on. I’m not actually confident in any of mine after the top 3.

    Puh, this is gonna be tough.

    1. Movie – Black Mirror
    2. Rachel Brosnahan
    3. Lead – Donald Glover
    4. Writing – Maisel
    5. Versace
    6. Writing – Black Mirror
    7. Diana Rigg
    8. Darren Criss
    9. Jeff Daniels – supporting
    10. Henry Winkler
    11. Laura Dern
    12. Atlanta
    13. Teddy Perkins
    14. The Handmaid’s Tale
    15. Elisabeth Moss
    16. Sterling K. Brown
    17. Versace – Directing
    18. Judith Light
    19. David Harbour
    20. Kate McKinnon
    21. Tiffany Haddish
    22. Bill Hader – Guest
    23. After (THT)
    24. June (THT)
    25. David Harbour
    26. Yvonne Strahovski

    And I am 100% not sure I will be staying with any of these predictions haha. Oh and Britton would be no.100

    FYC Oscars 2019: Viola Davis (Widows) - Best Actress

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    Eden
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    #1202621892

    It came to me as a surprise to see USS Callister confidently being at top of your lists. The Tale did underperform, but I’m still reluctantly lingering on it. It’s the theme of the movie that can convince voters to choose it and having in mind last year’s winners at the Emmys, it makes sense. I also think San Junipero had a much bigger impact than this year’s USS Callister. Anyways, if I feel like taking a risk, I’ll probably go with The Tale on the last day of predictions.

    I’m posting only my acting predictions.

    Donald Glover, Atlanta
    Rachel Brosnahan, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
    Henry Winkler, Barry
    Elisabeth Moss, The Handmaid’s Tale
    Judith Light, The Assassination of Gianni Versace
    Alex Borstein, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
    Yvonne Strahovski, The Handmaid’s Tale
    David Harbour, Stranger Things
    Sterling K. Brown, This Is Us
    Benedict Cumberbatch, Patrick Melrose
    Brandon Victor Dixon, Jesus Christ Superstar
    Michelle Dockery, Godless

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    forwardswill
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    #1202622079

    It came to me as a surprise to see USS Callister confidently being at top of your lists. The Tale did underperform, but I’m still reluctantly lingering on it. It’s the theme of the movie that can convince voters to choose it and having in mind last year’s winners at the Emmys, it makes sense. I also think San Junipero had a much bigger impact than this year’s USS Callister. Anyways, if I feel like taking a risk, I’ll probably go with The Tale on the last day of predictions.

    Love that this has been brought up.

    My view: The Limited categories were so weak this year and this acclaimed HBO movie could not make an impression other than in the two most obvious places. To me, that settles the lack of care for it. Black Mirror also won last year and we know that voters are lazy so given that there’s a good chance they barely saw any of the movies in this category and might just choose Black Mirror out of familiarity. I think reaction on these forums and online towards The Tale has also shown that it’s slightly less universally loved than the critics suggested.

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    Diet Teridax
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    #1202622081

    It came to me as a surprise to see USS Callister confidently being at top of your lists. The Tale did underperform, but I’m still reluctantly lingering on it. It’s the theme of the movie that can convince voters to choose it and having in mind last year’s winners at the Emmys, it makes sense. I also think San Junipero had a much bigger impact than this year’s USS Callister. Anyways, if I feel like taking a risk, I’ll probably go with The Tale on the last day of predictions.

    Love that this has been brought up.

    My view: The Limited categories were so weak this year and this acclaimed HBO movie could not make an impression other than in the two most obvious places. To me, that settles the lack of care for it. Black Mirror also won last year and we know that voters are lazy so given that there’s a good chance they barely saw any of the movies in this category and might just choose Black Mirror out of familiarity. I think reaction on these forums and online towards The Tale has also shown that it’s slightly less universally loved than the critics suggested.

    I am not an Emmy voter, have seen all the TV Movie nominations except Flint, and would vote for USS Callister in a heartbeat over The Tale. I hope and predict it will win the Goldderby TV Award for TV Movie over The Tale as well. That Picture Editing snub for The Tale really stands out since the cutting back and forth between flashbacks and the present were such an integral part of the film.

    Note to myself: Don’t ever feed the trolls. Don’t get involved in others drama. Don’t let myself be swayed by others predictions, trust my gut more often!

    Note to all others: If you don’t happen to like me, ignore me. It is that simple.

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    Luca Giliberti
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    #1202622089

    I think Ellen Burstyn’s snub is much more pivotal, because she gets nominated for everything. I also think that Black Mirror will easily win the Gold Derby TV Movie award.

    FYC Oscars 2019: Viola Davis (Widows) - Best Actress

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    Diet Teridax
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    #1202622098

    I think Ellen Burstyn’s snub is much more pivotal, because she gets nominated for everything. I also think that Black Mirror will easily win the Gold Derby TV Movie award.

    She notably was snubbed in recent years for her actual great Guest performance in Mom. I think under the new popular voting system her name isn’t getting checked off as easily. She lost for House of Cards Season 4 because that season was shit that was a filler nominee in most categories (fight me) as was made clear by it being the only HoC Season to not win a single Emmy in any category. Even the worse-received 5 still won a couple. Even though Margo Martindale had won for another cameo the year before as an I.O.U. for her Americans character “Claudia,” I guess they just really freaking loved her character that much? Either way Season 4 of The Americans was infinitely better received than maybe every House of Cards Season ever, and that’s coming from a former House of Cards fan, for about the first 1-2 (3 kind of) seasons. Burstyn isn’t the name-check she once was, not even enough to get nominated Adina Porter over what many consider an I.O.U. nod for her Roanoke snub last year and Sara freaking Barellies because the actors branch stans hard for Jesus Christ Superstar Live, apparently.

    Note to myself: Don’t ever feed the trolls. Don’t get involved in others drama. Don’t let myself be swayed by others predictions, trust my gut more often!

    Note to all others: If you don’t happen to like me, ignore me. It is that simple.

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    Luca Giliberti
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    #1202622101

    I think Ellen Burstyn’s snub is much more pivotal, because she gets nominated for everything. I also think that Black Mirror will easily win the Gold Derby TV Movie award.

    She notably was snubbed in recent years for her actual great Guest performance in Mom. I think under the new popular voting system her name isn’t getting checked off as easily. She lost for House of Cards Season 4 because that season was shit that was a filler nominee in most categories (fight me) as was made clear by it being the only HoC Season to not win a single Emmy in any category. Even the worse-received 5 still won a couple. Even though Margo Martindale had won for another cameo the year before as an I.O.U. for her Americans character “Claudia,” I guess they just really freaking loved her character that much? Either way Season 4 of The Americans was infinitely better received than maybe every House of Cards Season ever, and that’s coming from a former House of Cards fan, for about the first 1-2 (3 kind of) seasons.

    I would argue that she lost for S4 because she was up against two co-stars. I have never watched a single episode of this show, but I remember people saying that S4 was actually great. The show always looked too stale to me. I have seen some scenes from Wright and Spacey and I was never impressed by their acting. Spacey puts on the accent and yells a lot and Wright does…?

    FYC Oscars 2019: Viola Davis (Widows) - Best Actress

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    Diet Teridax
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    #1202622102

    I think Ellen Burstyn’s snub is much more pivotal, because she gets nominated for everything. I also think that Black Mirror will easily win the Gold Derby TV Movie award.

    She notably was snubbed in recent years for her actual great Guest performance in Mom. I think under the new popular voting system her name isn’t getting checked off as easily. She lost for House of Cards Season 4 because that season was shit that was a filler nominee in most categories (fight me) as was made clear by it being the only HoC Season to not win a single Emmy in any category. Even the worse-received 5 still won a couple. Even though Margo Martindale had won for another cameo the year before as an I.O.U. for her Americans character “Claudia,” I guess they just really freaking loved her character that much? Either way Season 4 of The Americans was infinitely better received than maybe every House of Cards Season ever, and that’s coming from a former House of Cards fan, for about the first 1-2 (3 kind of) seasons.

    I would argue that she lost for S4 because she was up against two co-stars. I have never watched a single episode of this show, but I remember people saying that S4 was actually great. The show always looked too stale to me. I have seen some scenes from Wright and Spacey and I was never impressed by their acting. Spacey puts on the accent and yells a lot and Wright does…?

    I think Seasons 3 and especially 4 is where the suspension of disbelief really disappeared for a lot of people. The show took itself so seriously but it was plausible enough in Season 1, less so with Season 2, (Frank doesn’t have an assassin kill Zoe and does it himself? Come on! At least Russo was in a garage, it just felt more realistic.) and eventually with 3 and 4… Claire leaves Frank and the end of 3, setting up a major storyline with her possibly being the antagonist of 4 with that cliffhanger, then not only does she work with him again, she runs with him as his Vice Presidential nominee? I’m sorry, I wasn’t prepared for this becoming a political thriller so unintentionally self-parodic that even SNL would have found it absurd early on. Doug remains a creepy weirdo murderer stooge, the lack of growth with all the potential the show teased fans with is why I only watched Spacey, Wright, and Kelly’s Emmy episode submissions with 5, I was tired of having my intelligence and taste insulted by this wannabe prestige drama BS excuse for a soap opera.

    Note to myself: Don’t ever feed the trolls. Don’t get involved in others drama. Don’t let myself be swayed by others predictions, trust my gut more often!

    Note to all others: If you don’t happen to like me, ignore me. It is that simple.

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    AayaanUpadhyaya
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    #1202622105

    She notably was snubbed in recent years for her actual great Guest performance in Mom

    But that’s the point no? The Academy never watched MOM and that’s why Janney started losing the moment they went to a plurality vote. So Burstyn not getting the nomination makes sense.

    When Burstyn is on a show they have watched, they never hesitate from name-checking her to a nod – whether warranted or not. And this year the Movie/Mini supporting actress category was so empty and weak, the fact that she couldn’t get in even though she had the typical baity material really telling.

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    Diet Teridax
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    #1202622110

    She notably was snubbed in recent years for her actual great Guest performance in Mom

    But that’s the point no? The Academy never watched MOM and that’s why Janney started losing the moment they went to a plurality vote. So Burstyn not getting the nomination makes sense.

    When Burstyn is on a show they have watched, they never hesitate from name-checking her to a nod – whether warranted or not. And this year the Movie/Mini supporting actress category was so empty and weak, the fact that she couldn’t get in even though she had the typical baity material really telling.

    Exactly. They never watched The Tale either. To be fair, I do think they watched Mom for the first couple seasons or so when they were actually rewarding her, I just think Janney was the only thing they actually liked in it. Just because Emmy voters don’t nominate shows everywhere doesn’t mean they don’t watch them.

    Note to myself: Don’t ever feed the trolls. Don’t get involved in others drama. Don’t let myself be swayed by others predictions, trust my gut more often!

    Note to all others: If you don’t happen to like me, ignore me. It is that simple.

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    lullopatullo
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    #1202622171

    1. Rachel Brosnahan – Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series
    2. USS Callister: Black MirrorOutstanding Television Movie
    3. “Pilot,” The Marvelous Mrs. MaiselOutstanding Writing for a Comedy Series
    4. The Handmaid’s TaleOutstanding Drama Series
    5. “Teddy Perkins,” AtlantaOutstanding Directing for a Comedy Series
    6. Matthew Rhys – Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series
    7. Samira Wiley – Outstanding Guest Actress in a Drama Series
    8. USS Callister: Black MirrorOutstanding Writing for a Limited Series, Movie, or Dramatic Special
    9. Henry Winkler – Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series
    10. The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime StoryOutstanding Limited Series
    11. Bill Hader – Outstanding Guest Actor in a Comedy Series
    12. Kate McKinnon – Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series
    13. “START,” The AmericansOutstanding Writing for a Drama Series
    14. AtlantaOutstanding Comedy Series
    15. GodlessOutstanding Directing for a Limited Series, Movie, or Dramatic Special
    16. Jane Lynch – Outstanding Guest Actress in a Comedy Series
    17. Laura Dern – Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited Series or Movie
    18. Ron Cephas Jones – Outstanding Guest Actor in a Drama Series
    19. Donald Glover – Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series
    20. Brandon Victor Dixon – Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or Movie
    21. “After,” The Handmaid’s TaleOutstanding Directing for a Drama Series
    22. Yvonne Strahovski – Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series
    23. Benedict Cumberbatch – Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited Series or Movie
    24. Joseph Fiennes – Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
    25. Letitia Wright – Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited Series or Movie
    26. Keri Russell – Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series

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