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Re-do : Who is the most likely to sweep the Winter Drama Actress Awards?

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Re-do : Who is the most likely to sweep the Winter Drama Actress Awards?
Olivia Colman, The Crown
Laura Linney, Ozark
Tatiana Maslany, Perry Mason
Sarah Paulson, Ratched
Jurnee Smollett-Bell, Lovecraft Country
Someone Else
There will be no sweep
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    Luca
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    #1203727103

    I think Paulson taking the Globe is a real possibility. Ratched seems like something they would embrace, and they can give her this award with perhaps Mrs. America in mind too. I cannot justify Olivia going 4 for 4, and Linney would have needed to win the Emmy to take this.

    Oscar FYC -- Give Viola Davis her second Oscar!

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    estrelas
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    #1203727142

    Laura is winning SAG imo. Is true that Julia will also get nominated but Gillian Anderson will most likely get nominated alongside Colman and she’ll be a much tougher co star to overcome than Garner. It will depend on who’s the fifth nominee but right now I don’t see anyone that strong to win here. Ratched is a critical flop and I have a feeling it might get the same treatment The Politician got here. Jodie Comer could very well win, her performance is still extremely popular and people love her. If Killing Eve gets into ensemble I think she’ll be a huge threat. But SAG loves Linney and they were the first to recognize her performance on the show. So I think she’s the frontrunner here (at the moment).

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    Clarage
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    #1203727144

    the GG dont care about Ozark sadly, Lovecraft country reviews arent good enough, im not sure about Ratched and Paulson

    GG: Colman, Paulson, Comer

    Sag: Linney

    CC: Paulson

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    Human Bartender
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    #1203727259

    I think Linney wins Globe and CC, but I’ve got a feeling Colman takes SAG.

    Let’s Go Bucks

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    Ivo Stoyanov
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    #1203727476

    Laura is winning SAG imo. Is true that Julia will also get nominated but Gillian Anderson will most likely get nominated alongside Colman and she’ll be a much tougher co star to overcome than Garner.

    I am sorry, but this is baseless statement, Anderson cannot even get nominated anymore (and in the last decade she has been aggressively campaigned for 3 shows now), while Graner is previous SAG nominee and two times Emmy winner, Linney will never win with Garner nominated alongside, the opposite is more probable, but I doubt it. Also, we have to see first what material Colman and Anderson will have, but if both of them are strong, I would predict Jodie Comer as the rightful winner.

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    estrelas
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    #1203727524

    I am sorry, but this is baseless statement, Anderson cannot even get nominated anymore (and in the last decade she has been aggressively campaigned for 3 shows now), while Graner is previous SAG nominee and two times Emmy winner, Linney will never win with Garner nominated alongside, the opposite is more probable, but I doubt it. Also, we have to see first what material Colman and Anderson will have, but if both of them are strong, I would predict Jodie Comer as the rightful winner.

    That is also a baseless statement. Gillian’s shows were completely non factors at SAG. She was never going to get nominated here for Hannibal, The Fall, American Gods or Sex Education. Holding her previous snubs against her is a bit too much. Also, she’s dating Peter Morgan and season 4 will cover the entire run of Tatcher as Prime Minister. She’s definitely going to deliver a John Lightgow type of performance. Linney could very well win with Garner nominated as well. Like you said in a previous post, its very rare for Supporting performances to win here and SAG was the first awards body to recognize Laura’s performance on the show. But like I said, if Killing Eve gets in for ensemble, I will probably predict Jodie Comer.

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    hopelesstar
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    #1203727543

    Jodie Comer is also an interesting option for Globes. They likely will continue to nominate KE in series, they might not feel the need to award Colman again and Paulson’s show might be too badly received critically for them to give it to her. As I said before they don’t care about Ozark, so I really don’t understand the Laura Linney predictions when the award body that like the show the most didn’t go for her. Lovecraft Country sounds like something they will ignore to me.

    It’s sad HBO isn’t pushing IMDY to drama because I really think there is an opening here for Michaela. It would also avoid internal competition with Kidman and later on Kate Winslet. But now we might actually see a default win to Comer, getting her post Emmy globe a year later.

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    Luca
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    #1203727579

    I agree, but we also haven’t seen Ozark contend at the Globes after it became a real thing at the Emmys. I still think it can get nominated, but I am not betting on Laura winning this.

    Oscar FYC -- Give Viola Davis her second Oscar!

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    forwardswill
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    #1203727632

    I fell off my chair.

    Wait do you actually think they’ll submit her as Lead?

    I mean patently I haven’t seen the season but if Anderson has the same size role as Lithgow did in Season 1 or more then I don’t see why they wouldn’t submit her in lead to allow Corrin and Bonham-Carter room to breathe.

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    wolfali
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    #1203728102

    I agree with the Jodie suggestions. There is still love for her performance and there is an argument to be made for her being in the top 3 this year in Actress and the HFPA could feel like they robbed her of a win or a sweep after she won the Emmy and decide to give her wins instead of going for Colman and if nominated at SAG she could benefit from a vote split in a similar way to how Tony Shalhoub did in his first SAG win.

    I am sorry, but this is baseless statement, Anderson cannot even get nominated anymore (and in the last decade she has been aggressively campaigned for 3 shows now),

    I am sorry but this is just ridiculous. What 3 shows has Gillian Anderson been aggressively campaigned for? Have they been shows that were in the top 3 contenders for Drama Series? Were they ever at one point considered the frontrunner for Series? Were they shows on Netflix? And more importantly was she playing Margaret Thatcher in them.

    Honestly people act like just because someone has missed for other performances in shows that hardly any Emmy voters watched (HannibalAmerican Gods) or shows that have only been discovered years later (The Fall) that it automatically means that despite us knowing they have material (I mean in the case of Anderson her whole season covers her reign as Prime Minister which not even John Lithgow had!) Obviously until we see her performance we can’t say whether she’s locked for the win or winning but in a field that won’t have Thandie Newton, Laura Dern or Meryl Streep returning and possibly not even Julia Garner returning I’d say she’s locked for the nomination (if she goes supporting). Especially when the writing and directing team say her and Corrin are co-leads and she is being promoted as such (and I highly doubt they will give the girlfriend of Peter Morgan playing Margaret Thatcher or the person playing the most famous non Queen member of the royal family the same treatment as Josh O’Connor).

    Not everyone is like Regina King.

    I mean patently I haven’t seen the season but if Anderson has the same size role as Lithgow did in Season 1 or more then I don’t see why they wouldn’t submit her in lead to allow Corrin and Bonham-Carter room to breathe.

    Well in response to that I’d say Jared Harris but if this does happen then watch Corrin do a Jodie Comer or a Jeremy Strong on Bonham-Carter.

    FYC OSCARS : VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", GLENN CLOSE FOR "HILLBILLY ELEGY", ANTHONY HOPKINS FOR "THE FATHER", CHADWICK BOSEMAN FOR "MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM", PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN (BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY).

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    Heptapod
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    #1203728493

    Anderson will not be submitted lead alongside Colman. This year showed how strategic The Crown’s submission teams are. They were very careful to only push one big contender in each category, even bumping up guest performers to supporting to make room in other places. Smith went lead for season one to make room for Lithgow but shifted down to supporting as soon as he was gone. Menzies would’ve had a much better shot in supporting, and could have won there, but they didn’t want to pit him and O’Connor against each other. Chaplin and Fennell would’ve been amazing submissions, but they didn’t want to endanger Lapotaire’s chances. Sure, multiple submissions will be unavoidable in supporting actress next year (unless one of those three ends up being guest-eligible which is highly possible), but after Colman’s loss this year and maybe no other big contenders to promote in drama, Netflix will throw all their power behind her to win. No way they endanger that with something as stupid as submitting a buzzy new performance from a huge name alongside her that would almost definitely split votes.

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    Hoster1
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    #1203728638

    While it’s true that Globes don’t like repeats, it’s not like they neverdo that. Barring some new contender, I think Colman may very much repeat and then win SAG, if Garner and Linney split the votes.

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    wolfali
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    #1203728643

    While it’s true that Globes don’t like repeats, it’s not like they neverdo that. Barring some new contender, I think Colman may very much repeat and then win SAG, if Garner and Linney split the votes.

    This. They’re also not going to shut Colman out of the Globes when she’s probably getting nominated twice there for two buzzy performances in two of the most buzzed about likely nominees there. She’s not winning over Glenn so it’s quite possible they award her here.

    FYC OSCARS : VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", GLENN CLOSE FOR "HILLBILLY ELEGY", ANTHONY HOPKINS FOR "THE FATHER", CHADWICK BOSEMAN FOR "MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM", PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN (BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY).

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    Couverture
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    #1203728869

    They’re also not going to shut Colman out of the Globes when she’s probably getting nominated twice there for two buzzy performances in two of the most buzzed about likely nominees there.

    Well, that’s what people said about Amy Adams as well.

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    Human Bartender
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    #1203728880

    I mean patently I haven’t seen the season but if Anderson has the same size role as Lithgow did in Season 1 or more then I don’t see why they wouldn’t submit her in lead to allow Corrin and Bonham-Carter room to breathe.

    I doubt she’s submitted lead. A lot remains to be seen this season, but whether there’s two or three women in supporting, a split seems possible, so I doubt they’d want a split in lead as well.

    Let’s Go Bucks

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