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Shaken to my core…an upset/angle I hadn't considered just struck me

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  • montana82
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    #1202616779

    GDerby, it comes over you once in a while. When you see a shocking outside the field win coming and you catch it just in time so you don’t look like a fool after the fact.

    Well after reading that Vulture article it totally hit me. There is a win obviously coming that we had completely not considered until this point.

    Leticia Wright is winning Supporting Actress TV Movie for Black Mirror.

    Why is she winning?

    1. Black Panther Black Panther Black Panther. Consider Knocked Up and Bridesmaids were given as reasons for carrying Katherine Heigl and Melissa McCarthy to wins those years. Well the hype for their films that year influenced a couple people on 70 person panels. Black Panther is even bigger and the voting pool even more prone to being influenced by popular hype due to an expanded voter pool.

    2. Voters love Black Mirror. It won TV Movie and Writing last year. It’s gonna possibly win those categories again. You could argue the series is just as popular, maybe even more so for voters, than Versace or Godless.

    3. Soft support for the 3 thought of frontrunners. Yes Versace and Godless have a lot of nominations. But the fields are weak. How LOVED are they? I don’t think that much. More respected than loved. Cruz/Light could split votes to start with. And are voters itching to put Wever up on the stage after she botched her speech last time?

    Yeah I think Leticia Wright is happening. And it never occurred to be until 30 minutes ago when I read the Vulture piece.

    • This topic was modified 1 month ago by  montana82.
    • This topic was modified 1 month ago by  montana82.
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    Riley
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    #1202616870

    Shaken to your core? Really? I can always tell when a thread is started by you or Guest 2018 just from the title, but I actually get a kick out of yours.

    It is Letitia, not Leticia. How can you say that Black Mirror is beloved as The Assassination of Gianni Versace when the latter has twelve more nominations? I expected it to be a draw, but I and I think a lot of us overestimated Black Mirror’s nomination prospects. You are on to something about respect versus passion though. I definitely think that Godless’s relatively impressive haul was merely the product of an expensive campaign.

    Limited supporting actress is somewhat ripe for an upset though, albeit not as much as the supporting actor races.

    "I don't even believe in god, but I'm going to thank her tonight."

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    AayaanUpadhyaya
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    #1202616896

    If an upset happens in this category, it’ll be for Adina Porter because voters might think they are voting for Raonoke.

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    lullopatullo
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    #1202616898

    I agree that she’s being underestimated and could easily see her winning as a shocker at the end.

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    Luca Giliberti
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    If an upset happens in this category, it’ll be for Adina Porter because voters might think they are voting for Raonoke.

    I actually loved Porter in Cult. I know people said that she wasn’t a believable reporter, but I always thought that she wasn’t supposed to be. And I know no one watches The 100 here, but she’s been playing Indra there since season 1. I have to remind myself that this is the same actress who does these AHS roles. She had incredible range.

    Luca G.

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    Miles
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    #1202617056

    If an upset happens in this category, it’ll be for Adina Porter because voters might think they are voting for Raonoke.

    They didn’t care about Roanoke at all and it doesn’t just say American Horror Story on the ballot, it says American Horror Story: Cult. The voters will know what they’re doing and that’s why Porter is in last place.

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    sofan
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    I agree that she’s being underestimated and could easily see her winning as a shocker at the end.

    This. The situation feels like the first time Regina King won.

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    Riley
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    #1202617189

    If an upset happens in this category, it’ll be for Adina Porter because voters might think they are voting for Raonoke.

    They didn’t care about Roanoke at all and it doesn’t just say American Horror Story on the ballot, it says American Horror Story: Cult. The voters will know what they’re doing and that’s why Porter is in last place.

    How did she get the nomination if they “know what they’re doing”?

    "I don't even believe in god, but I'm going to thank her tonight."

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    ChargerFan
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    #1202617318

    If an upset happens in this category, it’ll be for Adina Porter because voters might think they are voting for Raonoke.

    I actually loved Porter in Cult. I know people said that she wasn’t a believable reporter, but I always thought that she wasn’t supposed to be. And I know no one watches The 100 here, but she’s been playing Indra there since season 1. I have to remind myself that this is the same actress who does these AHS roles. She had incredible range.

    I LOVE Indra!

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    Miles
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    #1202617329

    If an upset happens in this category, it’ll be for Adina Porter because voters might think they are voting for Raonoke.

    They didn’t care about Roanoke at all and it doesn’t just say American Horror Story on the ballot, it says American Horror Story: Cult. The voters will know what they’re doing and that’s why Porter is in last place.

    How did she get the nomination if they “know what they’re doing”?

    I don’t know what you mean by that, I think Adina Porter is a worthy nominee for Cult. I just don’t buy the argument that voters will think they are voting for Roanoke even though it says Cult on the ballot and they didn’t care about Roanoke when it happened.

    In Cult, Adina Porter had the most politically significant role, playing an exaggeration of black women frustrated in their job positions and the racial climate in America. She was able to get the nomination over Alison Pill and Billie Lourd but I don’t think her performance in Roanoke puts her in contention for the win.

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    montana82
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    Shaken to your core? Really? I can always tell when a thread is started by you or Guest 2018 just from the title, but I actually get a kick out of yours.

    It is Letitia, not Leticia. How can you say that Black Mirror is beloved as The Assassination of Gianni Versace when the latter has twelve more nominations? I expected it to be a draw, but I and I think a lot of us overestimated Black Mirror’s nomination prospects. You are on to something about respect versus passion though. I definitely think that Godless’s relatively impressive haul was merely the product of an expensive campaign.

    Limited supporting actress is somewhat ripe for an upset though, albeit not as much as the supporting actor races.

    Riley Chow, what an honor. You are by far my favorite editor. I watch u like a hawk on the videos and hang on ur every word. While some editors hijack the chats and waste time with their personal fetishes (MUH TWIN PEAKS! MUH KYLE MACLACHLAN!), you are laser focused on the races we care about offering keen insight.

    I apologize for butchering Ms. Wright’s name. I was too excited. I feel like I cracked a code.

    Versace was always going to get more acting/tech noms than Black Mirror. But who REALLY loves it? Do critics? Did the viewers? I don’t think it was as well received as OJ, Big Little Lies, Night Of, Fargo, or Feud Bette and Joan by critics or the audience. The Academy didn’t really have much choice due to lack of competition to shower it with nominations. I mean when voters are publically expressing support for little seen and IMO awful Patrick Melrose it means they are desperate and looking for alternatives. And the fans of Black Mirror…Love it.

    And if Knocked Up and Bridesmaids were credited for influencing a small voting panel, couldn’t Black Panther influence 2000 voters?

    I also don’t think Cruz or Wever are that deserving. Based on performance I’m not sure how u could be enthusiastic by anyone other than Light. But if it’s buzz/hype/shiny new thing I think Wright takes it.

    • This reply was modified 4 weeks, 1 day ago by  montana82.
    • This reply was modified 4 weeks, 1 day ago by  montana82.
    • This reply was modified 4 weeks, 1 day ago by  montana82.
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    Malinda Kao
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    #1202617391

    And the fans of Black Mirror…Love it. And if Knocked Up and Bridesmaids were credited for influencing a small voting panel, couldn’t Black Panther influence 2000 voters?

    But the Black Panther association didn’t seem to help Michael B. Jordan (Fahrenheit 451) or Chadwick Boseman (Saturday Night Live) too much. Boseman probably was a longshot, but MBJ was someone a majority of the media outlets were predicting would land an acting nom more on the strength of Black Panther‘s reputation than on Fahrenheit 451‘s lackluster reception. And Fahrenheit 451 did land a nom while MBJ didn’t (you’d think it’d be the other way around if there was a strong Black Panther influence), which makes me think while Black Panther may influence some votes, it ultimately won’t be the deciding factor.

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    Teridax
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    And the fans of Black Mirror…Love it. And if Knocked Up and Bridesmaids were credited for influencing a small voting panel, couldn’t Black Panther influence 2000 voters?

    But the Black Panther association didn’t seem to help Michael B. Jordan (Fahrenheit 451) or Chadwick Boseman (Saturday Night Live) too much. Boseman probably was a longshot, but MBJ was someone a majority of the media outlets were predicting would land an acting nom more on the strength of Black Panther‘s reputation than on Fahrenheit 451‘s lackluster reception. And Fahrenheit 451 did land a nom while MBJ didn’t (you’d think it’d be the other way around if there was a strong Black Panther influence), which makes me think while Black Panther may influence some votes, it ultimately won’t be the deciding factor.

    Michael B. Jordan was still nominated as a producer of Fahrenheit 451. Actor was such a tough category that supposed lock (according to a great many Twin Peaks stans) Kyle MacLachlan got snubbed. There simply was not room for Jordan to get in there.

    For your Goldderby Film Awards consideration: Isle of Dogs for every category, especially Music Score for Alexandre Desplat!

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    Ivo Stoyanov
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    Shaken to your core? Really? I can always tell when a thread is started by you or Guest 2018 just from the title, but I actually get a kick out of yours.

    It is Letitia, not Leticia. How can you say that Black Mirror is beloved as The Assassination of Gianni Versace when the latter has twelve more nominations? I expected it to be a draw, but I and I think a lot of us overestimated Black Mirror’s nomination prospects. You are on to something about respect versus passion though. I definitely think that Godless’s relatively impressive haul was merely the product of an expensive campaign.

    Limited supporting actress is somewhat ripe for an upset though, albeit not as much as the supporting actor races.

    Riley Chow, what an honor. You are by far my favorite editor. I watch u like a hawk on the videos and hang on ur every word. While some editors hijack the chats and waste time with their personal fetishes (MUH TWIN PEAKS! MUH KYLE MACLACHLAN!), you are laser focused on the races we care about offering keen insight.

    I apologize for butchering Ms. Wright’s name. I was too excited. I feel like I cracked a code.

    Versace was always going to get more acting/tech noms than Black Mirror. But who REALLY loves it? Do critics? Did the viewers? I don’t think it was as well received as OJ, Big Little Lies, Night Of, Fargo, or Feud Bette and Joan by critics or the audience. The Academy didn’t really have much choice due to lack of competition to shower it with nominations. I mean when voters are publically expressing support for little seen and IMO awful Patrick Melrose it means they are desperate and looking for alternatives. And the fans of Black Mirror…Love it.

    And if Knocked Up and Bridesmaids were credited for influencing a small voting panel, couldn’t Black Panther influence 2000 voters?

    I also don’t think Cruz or Wever are that deserving. Based on performance I’m not sure how u could be enthusiastic by anyone other than Light. But if it’s buzz/hype/shiny new thing I think Wright takes it.

    Most of that is not true. The forth season of BM in his totality got really mixed and even mostly bad reviews, much worst than Versace and Godless. Same with viewers reception. USS Callister was one of the few well received episodes, but it was divisive as well. Hang the DJ was the only one universally aclaimed, but it looked too much like last winner masterpiece San Junipero, so they choose the more original one – USS Callister.

    Many people believed that Versace was better or equally good than/as O.J. (not the majority, but many did, including myself).

    Also, IMO Cruz, Light and Wever are much better than Wright, much, much better. I may be wrong, but I am pretty sure that is between them.

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    Ivo Stoyanov
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    #1202617432

    If an upset happens in this category, it’ll be for Adina Porter because voters might think they are voting for Raonoke.

    I actually loved Porter in Cult. I know people said that she wasn’t a believable reporter, but I always thought that she wasn’t supposed to be. And I know no one watches The 100 here, but she’s been playing Indra there since season 1. I have to remind myself that this is the same actress who does these AHS roles. She had incredible range.

    She was suppose to be believable, she was supposedly manipulating the opinion of the entire town. I also don’t buy the absurd Riley theory about Roanoke, I think that some people liked her performance (which is strange) and others liked what the character represents.

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