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Super Early 2021 Emmy Predictions (Part 3)

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    Human Bartender
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    #1203732495

    I’m just gonna say, if Maisel doesn’t want to vote split anymore, just have the two Palladinos co-direct an episode together.

    Let’s Go Bucks

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    wolfali
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    #1203732502

    I think Diana Rigg is our frontrunner for Limited/Movie S. Actress. There will be a big push for her both at the Oscars for Last Night in SoHo and at the Emmys for both S. Actress in a Limited Series or Movie for Black Narcissus and in G. Actress in a Drama Series for All Creatures Great and Small (she is absolutely iconic in it and elevates her material to otherworldly levels). She’s a highly respected and iconic actress who has been nominated for 9 Emmys (and won one) and 4 Tonys and voters may want to award her because it’s their last chance to award a great.

    I mean maybe it could be just me because I am pissed off she never won for delivering the best guest actress performance of all time but when you think about it there’s an easy path for her. If Impeachment comes in and does well we could see nominations for Paulson, Martindale and Ashford which could lead to a vote split unless one of them has a Sterling K. Brown level of a performance, The Undoing could lose steam towards the Summer if Mare of Easttown comes out which could lead to Dumzweni getting snubbed or becoming filler (unless she does a Whishaw sweep) and Jean Smart has bad luck in this category. Then we have the fact that Jessie Buckley could be hurt by Fargo season 4’s mixed reception.

    And this is assuming Impeachment does come in on time because if it doesn’t then she has a much easier path.

    FYC OSCARS : VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", GLENN CLOSE FOR "HILLBILLY ELEGY", ANTHONY HOPKINS FOR "THE FATHER", CHADWICK BOSEMAN FOR "MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM", PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN (BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY).

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    boss
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    Aug 14th, 2016
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    #1203732529

    So it will be a new season instead of a reboot, interesting that they didn’t announce this decision (not the news of the reboot but a new season).

    Speaking of revived HBO dramas, The Knick is set to return with a new season as well.

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    The Person Formerly Known As Linguini
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    #1203732575

    I think Diana Rigg is our frontrunner for Limited/Movie S. Actress. There will be a big push for her both at the Oscars for Last Night in SoHo and at the Emmys for both S. Actress in a Limited Series or Movie for Black Narcissus and in G. Actress in a Drama Series for All Creatures Great and Small (she is absolutely iconic in it and elevates her material to otherworldly levels). She’s a highly respected and iconic actress who has been nominated for 9 Emmys (and won one) and 4 Tonys and voters may want to award her because it’s their last chance to award a great. I mean maybe it could be just me because I am pissed off she never won for delivering the best guest actress performance of all time but when you think about it there’s an easy path for her. If Impeachment comes in and does well we could see nominations for Paulson, Martindale and Ashford which could lead to a vote split unless one of them has a Sterling K. Brown level of a performance, The Undoing could lose steam towards the Summer if Mare of Easttown comes out which could lead to Dumzweni getting snubbed or becoming filler (unless she does a Whishaw sweep) and Jean Smart has bad luck in this category. Then we have the fact that Jessie Buckley could be hurt by Fargo season 4’s mixed reception. And this is assuming Impeachment does come in on time because if it doesn’t then she has a much easier path.

    When do Rigg’s shows come out? Timing could mean everything for a posthumous win. If they campaign well and at the right moment, she can totally get her win.

    rubbish

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    wolfali
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    #1203732692

    When do Rigg’s shows come out? Timing could mean everything for a posthumous win. If they campaign well and at the right moment, she can totally get her win.

    Black Narcissus arrives on November 23 on FX and All Creatures Great and Small arrives on January 3 on PBS.

    It’s also worth mentioning she filmed both of them back to back despite being diagnosed with terminal cancer.

    FYC OSCARS : VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", GLENN CLOSE FOR "HILLBILLY ELEGY", ANTHONY HOPKINS FOR "THE FATHER", CHADWICK BOSEMAN FOR "MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM", PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN (BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY).

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    wolfali
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    #1203732878

    I just want to say (not sure if this has been pointed out in the past) that it’s becoming incredibly hard to tell who our frontrunners for Comedy Series are in advance when the fields are arguably weaker in the sense that Comedies nowadays have less of a sustained buzz than they did in the early 2010s. For example every year it seems to be that it’s Maisel vs the buzzy season of a show that was ignored in the past at the Emmys. And those shows aren’t big zeitgeisty hits despite their immense buzz. For example Fleabag and Schitt’s are excellent shows and they had buzz but their buzz is nothing in comparison to the buzz of Glee, Modern Family, 30 Rock etc 10 years ago. They are not undeniable hits that everyone in the world knows what they are or recognises performers from the show even if they haven’t seen it when they watch them in other shows/films (i.e. people know who Sue Sylvester is and everyone knows what Modern Family is but not everyone knows who Godmother in Fleabag or what Schitt’s Creek is.) I mean there were people online who after Schitt’s and Fleabag swept were intrigued as to what they were. If Glee, Modern Family, 30 Rock, Friends or The Office competed now they’d probably sweep. Or if Killing Eve frauded itself in Comedy even Kim Bodnia would have gotten in. Only one show really has the closest to a sustainable amount of buzz per season and that’s Barry and even then it’s nothing in comparison to shows of 10 years ago.

    On the other hand the opposite is apparent with the Drama and Limited races. Hence why it’s easier than it seems for Nicole Kidman to miss whilst Meryl Streep and Laura Dern get in or for Julia Garner to repeat, Succession to do well in acting, Jodie Comer and Zendaya to get in, Westworld to collapse due to being a non-event in its third season or Unorthodox, Normal People and Little Fires Everywhere to do well at Unbelievable and Mrs. America’s expense.

    Right now I think the early Comedy Series frontrunners are Maisel and Insecure but if anything from recent history has told us it’s that things change and that shows can creep up and steal the limelight. Honestly won’t be surprised if this time next year we end up laughing at ourselves because one of Sex Education, Zoey’s Extraordinary PlaylistRamyDead to Me or The Great has won Comedy Series.

    FYC OSCARS : VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", GLENN CLOSE FOR "HILLBILLY ELEGY", ANTHONY HOPKINS FOR "THE FATHER", CHADWICK BOSEMAN FOR "MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM", PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN (BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY).

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    Heptapod
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    #1203732905

    For example Fleabag and Schitt’s are excellent shows and they had buzz but their buzz is nothing in comparison to the buzz of Glee, Modern Family, 30 Rock etc 10 years ago.

    Thing is, I don’t think we’ll ever have shows like that ever again. Shows of insane popularity were possible in the time when there were less than a dozen channels putting out hot content. Today, Netflix alone probably puts out more quality high-profile comedy series than all of those previously mentioned networks did COMBINED. It’s nearly impossible to keep up with just that one streaming service’s content, not to mention every other medium fighting for eyes. Everyone’s watching different random things, and it’s becoming rarer and rarer than a show can really hit the zeitgeist in the way shows used to be able to. The only new one I can really think of from the past few years that’s been able to hit that level of cultural saturation where even people who don’t watch the show can recognize the characters is Stranger Things (partially The Mandalorian too but since that was already based on iconic IP I don’t really count it). The nature of overcrowded Peak TV just blocks that kind of global buzz from building for much of anything now.

    And I’d argue that Fleabag was the closest to that kind of buzz, not Barry. For a couple months, you couldn’t go on the Internet without someone ranting about Fleabag or PWB. I interact with a lot of people who aren’t avid television watchers, and while a couple of them might know that Barry was the Bill Hader show, most knew what Fleabag was, and a solid amount had made it one of the few shows they’d watched that year.

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    methaddiction
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    #1203732913

    I think Chernobyl also fits in with Fleabag and Stranger Things that show blew up and is one of the most popular Limited Series ever.

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    jjjmoss1
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    #1203732965

    IMDB ratings:

    GoT 1708k (series finale 225k)

    Chernobyl 497k (finale 52k)

    Modern Family 341k (S5 finale 1.6k)

    Handmaid’s Tale 161k (S1 finale 4k)

    Big Little Lies 146k (S1 finale 7k)

    Fleabag 85k (S2 finale 3k)

    Watchmen 80k (finale 5k) – actually lower than I expected given the superhero-ness and the built-in fanbase

    Maisel 73k (S1 finale 2k)

    Schitt’s 43k (S6 finale 0.6k)

    Veep 43k (S7 finale 1.4k)

    Succession 35k (S2 finale 3k)

    Yeah I’ve never heard in real life anyone talk about Creek. Occasionally on Facebook though. Definitely not Succession, but being Prestige HBO critically worshipped shows don’t need the general public’s support.

     

    This year’s losers:

    Good Place 102k (3k), Curb 99k (0.8k), Maisel 73k (1k), Dead to Me 50k (0.9k), Shadows 31k (0.8k), Kominsky 22k (0.5k), Insecure 12k (0.1k). Though I actually have heard people IRL talk about Insecure, but they happen to be millennial WOC, which is not a huge section of Emmy voters.

    Stranger Things 770k (21k), Saul 307k (7k) which will always be seen by many as the BB companion, Mandalorian 191k (15k), Ozark 172k (5k), Handmaid 161k (4k), Crown 118k (1.8k), Eve 80k (1.6k). ST/Mandalorian happen to be sci-fi which IMDB skews heavily towards, but they do seem the buzziest overall.

    Unbelievable 64k, Unorthodox 47k, Fires 20k, America 6k.

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    puck05
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    Sep 21st, 2019
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    #1203733186

    Sex Education, The Good Place and Brooklyn Nine-Nine are way more popular than Fleabag and Schitt’s Creek.

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    wolfali
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    #1203733569

    Wonder how many nominees HBO will have next year in Drama Series. With Lovecraft Country, Industry and Perry Mason they already have three potential Series nominees and they could also end up having the bigger juggernauts The Gilded Age and Succession in the Spring which will probably push those former three shows out of their priorities.

    I do think VanPatten is getting into Directing and unless Industry is panned so is Dunham.

    FYC OSCARS : VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", GLENN CLOSE FOR "HILLBILLY ELEGY", ANTHONY HOPKINS FOR "THE FATHER", CHADWICK BOSEMAN FOR "MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM", PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN (BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY).

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    Galang
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    #1203733613

    I don’t think Elizabeth is Missing will be eligible will it? Glenda Jackson’s just been nominated for an International Emmy for it

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    PleaseFeedTheTroll
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    #1203733719

    You guys have to be Australians or Europeans because Fleabag is a niche show in America. Whoever stated that it is similar to Stranger Things is someone who you oughta not ever entertain

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    wolfali
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    #1203734161

    I know I said we can’t say for certain what will win the Comedy categories but for now here’s what I see as the frontrunners in each race next year (assuming Barry, Ozark, Killing Eve, Shadows, Atlanta and The Morning Show miss eligibility) :

    Series – Maisel vs Insecure
    Actress – Issa Rae vs Elle Fanning
    Actor – Ramy Youssef vs Ted Danson
    S. Actor – Tony Shalhoub vs Jim Carrey vs Nicholas Hoult
    S. Actress – Alex Borstein vs Maya Rudolph
    Writing – The Great vs Insecure
    Directing – Insecure vs Ramy vs Maisel

    Series – The Crown vs Succession
    Actress – Olivia Colman vs Olivia Colman (with Mandy Moore as a spoiler)
    Actor – Brian Cox vs Matthew Rhys
    S. Actress – Gillian Anderson vs Emma Corrin vs Sarah Snook
    S. Actor – Kieran Culkin vs Josh O’Connor
    Writing – The Crown vs Succession
    Directing – Benjamin Caron/Jessica Hobbs vs Mark Mylod/Andrij Parekh vs Lena Dunham

    Series: Impeachment vs Mare of Easttown vs I May Destroy You
    Actress : Beanie Feldstein vs Kate Winslet vs Michaela Coel
    Actor : Bryan Cranston vs Clive Owen
    S. Actress : Diana Rigg vs Sarah Paulson
    S. Actor : Edgar Ramirez vs Donald Sutherland
    Writing : I May Destroy You vs Impeachment
    Directing : I May Destroy You vs Impeachment vs The Undoing

    FYC OSCARS : VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", GLENN CLOSE FOR "HILLBILLY ELEGY", ANTHONY HOPKINS FOR "THE FATHER", CHADWICK BOSEMAN FOR "MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM", PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN (BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY).

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    angel88401
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    #1203734776

    Wonder how many nominees HBO will have next year in Drama Series. With Lovecraft Country, Industry and Perry Mason they already have three potential Series nominees and they could also end up having the bigger juggernauts The Gilded Age and Succession in the Spring which will probably push those former three shows out of their priorities. I do think VanPatten is getting into Directing and unless Industry is panned so is Dunham.

    Wait, do people think Succession is going to make it back in time for the eligibility period? I’m leaning towards it not making it back in time because they haven’t even started filming with tentative plans to start in November. And, they took about 6-7 months to film Season 2 so even if this coming season is a little shorter as rumored, it will still take a good number of months to film. The spring seems a little bit generous, no?

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