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Super Early 2022 Predictions: Emmy Drama Categories

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    Kaguya-hime
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    #1204308572

    Shortlist #1 – existing contenders My shortlist (in no particular order) of likely above the line contenders (and acting contenders) Established dramas (high confidence) 1. Ozark (season 4) – easily. Less confident on Linney. Continue to be confident on Bateman and Garner. 2. Bridgerton (season 2) – too strong already. Not my favourite personally, but not deniable. No idea with acting, but think it’ll be strong in series. 3. Better Call Saul (final season) – predicting a Breaking Bad style late run binge from viewers. I would dearly like Rhea Seehorn to get just the one nomination. 4. Succession (season 3) – obvious. Expect a similar run as last time. Have complete confidence Season 3 delivers. Established dramas (lower confidence) 1. This Is Us (final season) – will depend on this year, but well set up to have an interesting final year. Really hard to predict acting without seeing material. 2. The Morning Show (season 2) – can see this being a consistent acting threat vs awards. Marguiles in whatever category, Aniston, Crudup. Much less confidence on Witherspoon and Carell. 3. Killing Eve. Enjoy this show, but I worry about voters defaulting Oh votes to The Chair. Think Comer will probably get in again. I think two noms for Shaw in a cool (but not very large) role is enough and I won’t predict her again unless the size of the role goes up. 4. Stranger Things (season 4) – I don’t know. Maybe. I’m very on the fence. Maybe drama and maybe Harbour. My gut says it’s past its’ award days. 5. The Boys season 3 IF, and only if, it performs well in 2021 – more likely to predict if it gets more than one above the line nom. 6. For All Mankind season 3. Dependent on S2 picking up any noms. Less confident on acting given some of the submissions. 7. No more than two Marvel/Star Wars shows. Given the difficulty of predicting limited vs drama not predicting specifics here. Discounting The Mandalorian because I don’t think it will be ready. I feel like the industry will support the franchises but only to a certain extent. 8. Dexter – I would be surprised if this got in anything except for Hall. Or at all. I don’t think anyone “needs” this.

    I’d be pretty shocked if Better Call Saul had a huge overperformance like that. The Emmys have always overlooked it in many categories, it performed pretty terribly last year, and even in the empty drama field in 2019 it won 0 Emmys, lost Best Actor to a much weaker show, failed to get Rhea Seehorn in in a field so weak that Game of Thrones got 4 supporting actress nominees nominated, and was at best 5th for the win in the series race. It just isn’t a top-tier contender.

    Btw, what are your thoughts on Euphoria’s chances?

    First season contenders (high confidence) 1. The Gilded Age (HBO) – Likely the most prestige “classic” non genre release of the year in Drama. Easy pick for series and multiple acting noms for me. Don’t see how this doesn’t get in. 2. House of The Dragon (HBO) – relatively confident this is finished on time. Extremely doubtful this gets late stage GoT love early on. Feel good about Olivia and Matt’s chances. 3. Lord of The Rings (Prime) – not confident it’s ready but it would have to be quite bad to not get in somewhere. The lack of information and the lack of previous content by showrunners makes this hard to predict in anything other than name only, though I am particularly fond of Mullan and Morfydd Clark. First season contenders (lower confidence) might get in for acting, will have a better chance if HOTD and LOTR don’t qualify. 1. The Wheel of Time (Prime). Incredibly ambitious to adapt (fourteen books and a massive amount of characters). Think Rosamund Pike gets in, and Okenedo if she gets airtime. Wondering if six eps is enough to flesh out other characters and who they focus on. I like this cast slightly better overall, to be honest, and there’s a LOT to adapt from. 2. American Rust (Showtime) Decent actors. Looks formulaic on the surface if it doesn’t launch at the right time. Let me come back to this after I see what the 2021 voters are turning towards. If it’s more Mare and The Undoing then maybe? If it’s The Boys and Disney, no. Who knows? Things I have decent confidence in because of source material that no one else seems to: 3. Foundation (Apple TV). Going to be ready. First looks seem good. Very competitive below the line. Have huge confidence in Jared Harris post Chernobyl. In the lower confidence section only because I want to see if Apple continue to get in this year with For All Mankind or Mythic Quest etc. 4. The Sandman (Netflix). Going to be ready. Will 100% submit for VFX. The amount of experienced actors signing on gives me confidence in a low Netflix competitive year, but material is going to be hard to adapt. Less confident on Sturridge as character will likely be overshadowed Christie and Howell-Baptiste and Thewlis have good material here.

    I don’t really get the high confidence in Lord of the Rings tbh. It could succeed, but it seemingly being an original story not adapted from anything and having a low-profile cast and crew are somewhat concerning for me.

    I think the point about Foundation is interesting though. I’m not going to predict something created by David S. Goyer, but Harris is in a great spot in his career.

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    katiebstate
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    #1204309461

    I wasn’t sure on it being ready. I think Euphoria will probably get in on acting, I don’t really see Zendaya dropping out soon and I think Schafer has some good chances. I am not as confident in it getting in to drama, but if I recall it did get in at TCA.

    I add both Foundation and The Sandman because they’re very clearly going to be ready and campaigned and are somewhat under the radar next to the Marvel/Star Wars/LOTR/House of The Dragon of it all (I think the same is true of The Wheel of Time) and I think they’ll benefit mostly if some of those shows aren’t ready, which is very likely.

    Foundation risks being too hard sci-fi to appeal to voters but looks higher quality than any other hard sci-fi show I have ever seen and Harris is a broad appeal, high quality lead after Chernobyl (I don’t think Lee Pace is out of the question either).

    Goyer has minimal involvement in The Sandman as far as I am aware. Mostly, though I think it’s gone TOTALLY under the radar that Netflix prioritised a planned nine month, heavily NDA’d shoot for this show filming start to finish at Shepparton Studio (which is normally for movies). Few shows have had that level of confidence shown. I know the source material on this – it is a risky adaptation but it is tailor made to be an actors showcase.

     

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    katiebstate
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    #1204309477

    Re BCS, I am probably biased a bit (I actually like BCS more than Breaking Bad). I’d love to SEE Seahorn but I am not predicting her. I just think she deserves it, but I don’t think she has the support in the voting body.

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    puck05
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    #1204309524

    FX’s Y: The Last Man has Diane Lane in its cast and the plot is baity. It could be a big contender.

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    katiebstate
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    #1204309571

    FX’s Y: The Last Man has Diane Lane in its cast and the plot is baity. It could be a big contender.

    I agree on Lane, who I don’t think should ever be discounted. Tamblyn has also been nominated before.  I probably should have considered it. I am somewhat shaky on this one because it’s still in production despite having a September release date, though it’s been filming for ages, and the litany of problems in changing cast and showrunners before it’s aired combined with the release date concern me.

    Much of my confidence on comic adaptations/sci-fi/fantasy/game adaptations etc hinges on whether we start seeing voters err towards or away from things like Wandavision or The Boys or Disney shows.

    If we see an err towards AND shows like Lord of The Rings and House of The Dragon fail to make eligibility (both likely) I think those shows need to be under serious consideration. Halo at Paramount + maybe, but I don’t really get any vibes they’re awards-playing that.

    I also worry about Disney cancelling it’s chances out with too many shows, particularly with the MCU and particularly in a year where they have multiple film releases.

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    Allan Veríssimo
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    #1204309826

    George R.R. Martin has said in a interview this week that House of the Dragon will be released in Spring 2022: https://winteriscoming.net/2021/06/18/george-rr-martin-regrets-not-staying-ahead-game-of-thrones/

    Also, production of Westworld Season 4 has already started: https://mobile.twitter.com/ThandiweNewton/status/1406216632309932032

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    Jays
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    #1204309853

    HBO releasing House of the Dragon in the spring is kind of shocking to me. Succession, The Gilded Age and House of the Dragon? Seems like one too many.

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    wolfali
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    #1204309855

    HBO releasing House of the Dragon in the spring is kind of shocking to me. Succession, The Gilded Age and House of the Dragon? Seems like one too many.

    My guess is Succession will be released in October/November, The Gilded Age in February (hasn’t it been confirmed for Feb) and House of the Dragon in April.

    FYC: All things The Crown, Hacks and I May Destroy You (and Hannah Waddingham and Julianne Nicholson whilst you're at it)!!

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    Jays
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    #1204309858

    My guess is Succession will be released in October/November, The Gilded Age in February (hasn’t it been confirmed for Feb) and House of the Dragon in April.

    That makes sense, it just feels like 3 *big* shows coming out in such a short period of time. They also have that Lakers show too, which feels like a summer release.

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    methaddiction
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    #1204309867

    My guess is Succession will be released in October/November, The Gilded Age in February (hasn’t it been confirmed for Feb) and House of the Dragon in April.

    HBO really said we’re going to give Netflix only 1 year to win some Emmys.

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    wolfali
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    #1204309870

    That makes sense, it just feels like 3 *big* shows coming out in such a short period of time. They also have that Lakers show too, which feels like a summer release.

    Netflix seems to be in a similar situation as well. Ozark and Stranger Things are being rumoured to premiere in February and March (a full 7 months after they wrapped shooting) and Dead to Me will premiere around March/April if it follows the same pattern both those shows and Sex Education (rumoured for October) have taken. It actually makes me wonder if <i>Russian Doll </i>and Bridgerton will actually make eligibility lol.

    FYC: All things The Crown, Hacks and I May Destroy You (and Hannah Waddingham and Julianne Nicholson whilst you're at it)!!

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    Allan Veríssimo
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    #1204309873

    If House of the Dragon will be released in the spring, then I’m inclined to believe that Westworld should only return in the summer.

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    katiebstate
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    #1204309877

    My guess is Succession will be released in October/November, The Gilded Age in February (hasn’t it been confirmed for Feb) and House of the Dragon in April.

    I worry about them having three drama contenders as well. I am nowhere near as confident on House of The Dragon as Game of Thrones, and I was a big Thrones fan, and a short post-prod after the goliath season 8 makes me feel like people will be disappointed if it’s not as huge.

    I honestly feel like the love for that show is going to end up manifesting elsewhere, either in other fantasy or large scale projects, potentially through other projects by the showrunners, or towards actors in other projects.

    I think the actor thing is a distinct possibility: it’s not quite a trend, but Dance, Menzies, Pascal, Waddingham et al are all fairly minor GoT alum and very competitive. They have far more well known names from their cast likely for contention next year

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    braydenfitzsimmons
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    #1204309883

    HBO really said we’re going to give Netflix only 1 year to win some Emmys.

    “Okay, so you can sweep Drama this year but leave supporting actor and the Comedy field for us”

    “Excellent and we’ll duke it out in limited, our Beth Harmon versus your Arabella and Mare”

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    wolfali
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    #1204309885

    HBO really said we’re going to give Netflix only 1 year to win some Emmys.

    Meanwhile The Crown in 2023:

    FYC: All things The Crown, Hacks and I May Destroy You (and Hannah Waddingham and Julianne Nicholson whilst you're at it)!!

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