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Super Early 2022 Predictions: Emmy Drama Categories

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    sarahvsmovies
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    Jun 14th, 2021
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    #1204310037

    I’m not convinced yet that House of the Dragon will be a major contender for the win. We’ll see. Game of Thrones did well awards wise but there’s another show whose parent did well awards wise whilst they didn’t…

     

    Justice for Better Call Saul! It inevitably being ignored again next year will be my villain origin story.

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    Jacob Boe
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    Apr 20th, 2019
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    #1204310759

    I normally don’t predict; I hopedict (as long as it has better than 100/1 odds). For instance, I obviously didn’t think Lindo would be nominated at the Oscars given the precursors, but I wanted him to, and he had a chance, so I predicted him. On the other end, I wanted The Mandalorian and What We Do in the Shadows to be nominated last year for Series but since they had 100/1 odds, I thought there was no shot for them, since that never happens in program categories (this will be important later).

    Season 6 of Outlander is scheduled for 2022, and there isn’t really any pattern to its releases, but it started production in February, and I could see it premiere in April as it has twice before. I’m wondering, do you think there is any chance for it at the Emmys?

    I know it’s never been an Emmy contender in the past, but there are a few reasons why I think that could change, but I want to know if these make sense or are just hopes:

    1. It has had some, albeit minimal, awards success. Caitriona Balfe has received many Golden Globe nominations for her performance, the show itself and Tobias Menzies were nominated for Globes for the first season, it’s received a few Critics Choice Award and Satellite Award nominations, and it got three Critics Choice Super Award nominations this year. Could these actually be precursing future success?

    2. It won a GoldDerby Award for Sam Heughan for the first season and recently won another GoldDerby Award for him and a nomination for Caitriona. We often nominate shows before the Emmys do (like Sex Education) or at the same time (like What We Do in the Shadows). Could this be a sign of more support for the show, or at least increased visibility? I ask especially since this is the reason I started watching it-that it was nominated for two GD awards.

    3.  In keeping with analyzing GoldDerby, last year many Users were predicting it to win Series, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, and Supporting Actress, and actually had better than 100/1 odds for Users. That amount of User support hasn’t been seen since season 1, when Users were actually predicting it in their top 6-8 in Series, Actor, Actress, and Supporting Actor categories. Could this also indicate increased support or visibility?

    4. Going back to The Mandalorian and What We Do in the Shadows, last year was the first year that I know of that a show was nominated for a program Emmy when it had 100/1 odds (not including things like Schitt’s Creek or Homeland that are more like 99/1 odds than 100/1 odds because of the amount of Users predicting them). I think that is most definitely a result of having a fixed number of nominees. Outlander was actually above The Mandalorian last year in the Combined Odds. Could it pull one of these nominations in the future, especially if something similar happens this year and it becomes a trend?

    5. Schitt’s Creek didn’t get nominated for Emmys until season 5. The Americans and Insecure didn’t get nominated for Series until seasons 4. Could it be a late breaker like them?

    6. Its critical reception has stayed consistent. Some critics thought it was a weaker season last year, but then I’ve heard some people say it was the best season since season 1 so… It, and The Walking Dead, are the only shows I know of to have such good hype and receptions and never be nominated for Series, and they are frequently (or were in the case of TWD) cited as Emmy snubs. Could this help if we get more TMS and KE S3 receptions?

    7. Peak TV is dead. We’re now in the Streaming Wars. Its prior seasons were competing with some of the great Peak TV shows: Mad Men, Game of Thrones, The Americans. Could the fact that the fields are weaker now help it for the future?

    I know there are a lot and I may be grasping at straws but I want to know if anyone thinks these are good points. I finished season 1 today on Netflix and I’m loving it and I really want to have high hopes for its future, but I don’t want them to be misplaced. Thoughts please???

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    katiebstate
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    #1204310801

    Season 6 of Outlander is scheduled for 2022, and there isn’t really any pattern to its releases, but it started production in February, and I could see it premiere in April as it has twice before. I’m wondering, do you think there is any chance for it at the Emmys?

    I think the biggest barrier for Outlander is simply it being on Starz – the Emmys are so reluctant against Starz and/or Starz are not focusing their campaigning as well as they could towards Emmys.

    They have got in before for costumes and production design, and I think honestly are as competitive as any show there. But I agree, it’s a well-loved show that to me has high production values, Heughan and Balfe carry the whole thing more than most leads.

    One thing I do think is in Outlanders’ favour is another female-skewing romance focused show like Bridgerton getting in – it’s hard to argue the “snobbery” factor against that sort of content when Bridgerton does.

     

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    hopelesstar
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    #1204310803

    One thing I do think is in Outlanders’ favour is another female-skewing romance focused show like Bridgerton getting in – it’s hard to argue the “snobbery” factor against that sort of content when Bridgerton does.

    Shonda Rhimes is mostly responsible for Bridgerton success, she has become a household name. I doubt it would have been that successful without her involvement.

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    Luca
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    Jun 23rd, 2017
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    #1204310807

    Outlander? I am sorry, but not happening, least of all in its sixth season.

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    wolfali
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    #1204310815

    If by Outlander happening you mean Tobias Menzies finally getting nominated in supporting actor for The Crown this year then yes that will happen.

    If you’re querying whether the show Outlander will get nominated for anything…

    FYC: All things The Crown, Hacks and I May Destroy You (and Hannah Waddingham and Julianne Nicholson whilst you're at it)!!

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    katiebstate
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    #1204310825

    Shonda Rhimes is mostly responsible for Bridgerton success, she has become a household name. I doubt it would have been that successful without her involvement.

    I know that. My only argument is more that if your mental argument as a voter has been that period-romance shows aren’t awards fodder and thus you’ve kept Outlander off the ballot for that reason, Bridgerton makes it a lot harder. I think it’s unlikely because nothings’ changed. Schitt’s had a run because it had a massive increase in availability via Netflix.

    However, to go back to an argument I made earlier re fantasy/cartoon/sci fi adaptations – I think this upcoming year should more be seen as a bellwether for where voters are heading. If it’s very Queen’s Gambit, Bridgerton, Crown period piece, I guess you could make a case for Outlander. If it’s more towards Disney style content, not a chance.

     

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    methaddiction
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    #1204310863

    The reason Outlander even won a Gold Derby award last year is because the Twitter account for the show tweeted to vote for it 💀 Laura Linney won by like 2 votes because of it I don’t see that as strength for its Emmy chances.

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    Luca
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    Jun 23rd, 2017
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    #1204310873

    Laura Linney won by like 2 votes because of it I don’t see that as strength for its Emmy chances.

    The way the queen even beat out the stans, whew.

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    adiman93
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    May 24th, 2021
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    #1204310892

    Best Drama Predictions

    1) Ozark  (Winner)

    2) Better Call Saul

    3) Yellowstone

    4) Succession

    5)The Morning Show

    6) The Boys

    7) The Handsmaid Tale

    8) American Rust

    9) Snowfall

    Best Actor in a Leading Role

    1) Jason Bateman – Ozark

    2) Bob Odenkirk – Better Call Saul

    3) Jeff Daniels – American Rust

    4) Michael C Hall – Dexter  (Winner)

    5) Kevin Costner – Yellowstone

    6) Brian Cox – Succession

    Best Actress in a Leading Role

    1) Elizabeth Moss – The Handsmaid Tale

    2) Rhea Seehorn – Better Call Saul

    3) Laura Linney – Ozark  (Winner)

    4) Maura Tierney – American Rust

    5) Jennifer Anniston – The Morning Show

    6) Sarah Snook – Succession

    Best Supporting Actor

    1) Clancy Brown – Dexter

    2) Steve Carrell – The Morning Show

    3) Jonathan Banks – Better Call Saul (Winner)

    4) Antony Starr – The Boys

    5) Kieran Culkin – Succession

    6) Wes Bentley – Yellowstone

    Best Supporting Actress

    1) Kelly Reilly – Yellowstone

    2) Reese Witherspoon  –  The Morning Show

    3) Samira Wiley – The Handsmaid Tale  (Winner)

    4) Yvonne Strahovski – The Handsmaid Tale

    5) Ann Dowd – The Handsmaid Tale

     

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    JV
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    Dec 31st, 2019
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    #1204310897

    I believe Michael C. Hall and the Dexter revival will be eligible in the Limited Series categories.

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    wolfali
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    Sep 4th, 2018
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    #1204310907

    I believe Michael C. Hall and the Dexter revival will be eligible in the Limited Series categories.

    It will be eligible in drama because it features a returning character (same with And Just Like That…).

    FYC: All things The Crown, Hacks and I May Destroy You (and Hannah Waddingham and Julianne Nicholson whilst you're at it)!!

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    Harmen Moes
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    Nov 7th, 2020
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    #1204311553

    The reason Outlander even won a Gold Derby award last year is because the Twitter account for the show tweeted to vote for it 💀 Laura Linney won by like 2 votes because of it I don’t see that as strength for its Emmy chances.

     

    that could also happen with Homelander. Because, he also reacts quite a lot to everything. Or Mando and WandaVision in series?

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    puck05
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    Sep 21st, 2019
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    #1204312464

    https://deadline.com/2021/06/glenn-close-star-tehran-season-2-apple-series-1234779083/

    This is so random. Why would Glenn Close join an Israeli series at this stage of her career? She must have really like the show.

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    wolfali
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    Sep 4th, 2018
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    #1204313609

    I hate to say this because they were my personal winner and runner up in actress last year but unless one of their shows win drama series, I struggle to see any narrative for Aniston or Linney to win. I guess you could argue one of them could be undeniable for the win but that was arguably Linney’s case last year and we saw what happened. They both feel like they’ll have better chances for their final seasons.

    Assuming neither The Morning Show or Ozark wins series then I think we could end up with a race between Baranski and Oh. The former very much feels like she could be this year’s Gillian Anderson (well respected veteran in a high profile who is arguably overdue a second Emmy) whilst the latter’s overdue narrative will only be strengthened by this being her show’s final season and by potentially having further buzz from The Chair.

    It helps both that their shows will also have more recency buzz than at least Aniston’s.

    FYC: All things The Crown, Hacks and I May Destroy You (and Hannah Waddingham and Julianne Nicholson whilst you're at it)!!

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