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Television Guilds 2020 Predictions

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    wolfali
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    #1203728734

    Will Unorthodox even be eligible for DGA? Do they allow foreign shows to compete?

    I don’t think there is a restriction on foreign shows to compete at DGA it’s just they don’t get nominated often (unless you’re an American directing an episode of Downton Abbey).

    Unorthodox is classified as an American-German programme so I’m sure it’s fine.

    FYC OSCARS : VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", GLENN CLOSE FOR "HILLBILLY ELEGY", ANTHONY HOPKINS FOR "THE FATHER", CHADWICK BOSEMAN FOR "MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM", PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN (BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY).

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    Hoster1
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    #1203728738

    Forgot about Downton Abbey lol. So yeah it should be fine then.

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    Gabriel Seehorn (gabspss)
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    #1203728745

    The Good Place was dropped at WGA last year and they are not coming back with only 4 episodes elegible.

    Curb Your Enthusiasm won before and never missed this category. If there’s a guild Curb is getting in, it’s the WGA.

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    wolfali
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    #1203728754

    The Good Place was dropped at WGA last year and they are not coming back with only 4 episodes elegible. Curb Your Enthusiasm won before and never missed this category. If there’s a guild Curb is getting in, it’s the WGA.

    But Curb Your Enthusiasm flopped in nominations at the Emmys whilst The Good Place got back into Writing plus it’s an emptier field.

    What We Do in the Shadows is probably winning but The Good Place is probably getting nominated.

    FYC OSCARS : VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", GLENN CLOSE FOR "HILLBILLY ELEGY", ANTHONY HOPKINS FOR "THE FATHER", CHADWICK BOSEMAN FOR "MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM", PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN (BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY).

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    Gabriel Seehorn (gabspss)
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    #1203728775

    But Curb Your Enthusiasm flopped in nominations at the Emmys whilst The Good Place got back into Writing plus it’s an emptier field.

    Curb flopped with the acting branch. They got in at casting after 12 years (!!!) and editing after being snubbed in 2018 even after its 2 nominations at ACE. Also, they got in at the Video Control category for the first time.

    The Good Place would never miss that writing nomination or series. Especially in such a weak field and with so many slots.

    The only show that ever got nominated for their hanging final episodes was 30 Rock. A show that never missed WGA and had just won the writing emmy for the 3rd time.

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    boss
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    #1203740958

    I think This Is Us will finally be nominated for WGA. It had probably been lingering for a spot and besides The Crown, Ozark and Better Call Saul I don’t know what can potentially get in. I’m waiting for how critics’ year end lists will react to Lovecraft Country to predict it as so far the show’s quality does not warrant any recognition.

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    wolfali
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    #1203741097

    Yeah I agree Boss. This is Us has already shown how it can easily get into a weak guild field when it slipped in at PGA in 2019.

    I wonder what’s going to win PGA, WGA and DGA. It obviously depends on the reception of this season but I can see The Crown winning WGA and PGA whilst DGA goes to Ozark or Homeland because I don’t see The Crown getting nominated there.

    FYC OSCARS : VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", GLENN CLOSE FOR "HILLBILLY ELEGY", ANTHONY HOPKINS FOR "THE FATHER", CHADWICK BOSEMAN FOR "MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM", PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN (BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY).

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    estrelas
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    #1203744420

    Drama and Comedy guild predictions:

    Drama

    • PGA: The Crown (Ozark)
    • WGA: Better Call Saul
    • DGA: Ozark
    • SAG: The Crown

    Comedy

    • PGA: Schitt’s Creek
    • WGA: What We Do In the Shadows
    • DGA: Ramy
    • SAG: Schitt’s Creek
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    wolfali
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    #1203744456

    WGA: Better Call Saul

    I have a feeling The Crown is upsetting here.

    FYC OSCARS : VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", GLENN CLOSE FOR "HILLBILLY ELEGY", ANTHONY HOPKINS FOR "THE FATHER", CHADWICK BOSEMAN FOR "MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM", PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN (BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY).

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    Couverture
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    #1203744468

    Ozark is competitive for WGA as well. In fact, it’s the only show competitive for all four major guilds.

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    estrelas
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    #1203744510

    I think The Crown and Ozark have a better chance in Episodic than Drama Series. Season 5 of Better Call Saul was the second most acclaimed show of the show of the season (after Succession) and the Writers Guild love this show. I think they will recognize it in series.

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    wolfali
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    #1203744520

    and the Writers Guild love this show.

    Did they love it enough to give it any awards (including New Series) outside of the panel voted Episodic Drama though?

    FYC OSCARS : VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", GLENN CLOSE FOR "HILLBILLY ELEGY", ANTHONY HOPKINS FOR "THE FATHER", CHADWICK BOSEMAN FOR "MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM", PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN (BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY).

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    wolfali
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    #1203765020

    Updated predictions of the big ones (excl. SAG) done in order of nomination likelihood.

    PGA

    Drama

    1. The Crown (Netflix)
    2. Ozark (Netflix)
    3. Better Call Saul (AMC)
    4. The Mandalorian (Disney+)
    5. Perry Mason (HBO)

    6. The Right Stuff (Disney+)
    7. Killing Eve (BBC America)
    8. This is Us (NBC)
    9. Ratched (Netflix)
    10. Industry (HBO)

    Comedy

    1. Schitt’s Creek (PopTV)
    2. Insecure (HBO)
    3. What We Do in the Shadows (FX)
    4. Dead to Me (Netflix)
    5. Pen15 (Hulu)

    6. Ramy (Hulu)
    7. The Great (Hulu)
    8. Ted Lasso (AppleTV+)
    9. Curb Your Enthusiasm (HBO)
    10. Black-ish (ABC)

    Limited Series

    1. Mrs. America (FX on Hulu)
    2. The Undoing (HBO)
    3. Unorthodox (Netflix)
    4. Little Fires Everywhere (Hulu)
    5. The Queen’s Gambit (Netflix) (+1)

    6. I May Destroy You (HBO) (-1)
    7. Normal People (Hulu)
    8. The Good Lord Bird (Showtime)
    9. The Comey Rule (Showtime)
    10. Fargo (FX)

    DGA

    Drama

    1. Alik Sakharov, Ozark (“Fire Pink”)
    2. Ben Semanoff, Ozark (“Su Casa Es Mi Casa”)
    3. Jason Bateman, Ozark (“Wartime”)
    4. Leslie Linka Glatter, Homeland (“Prisoners of War”)
    5. Tim VanPatten, Perry Mason (“Chapter 1”)

    6. Jon Favreau, The Mandalorian
    7. Lena Dunham, Industry (“Pilot”)
    8. Robert Rodriguez, The Mandalorian
    9. Yann Demange, Lovecraft Country (“Sundown”)
    10. David Nutter, The Right Stuff (“Sierra Hotel”)

    Comedy

    1. Ramy Youssef, Ramy (“Miakhalifa.mov”)
    2. Matt Shakman, The Great (“The Great”)
    3. Gail Mancuso, Modern Family (“Finale”)
    4. Sam Zvibleman, Pen15 (“Opening Night”)
    5. Jermaine Clement, What We Do in the Shadows (“Colin’s Promotion”)

    6. Dan Levy and Andre Cividino, Schitt’s Creek (“Happy Ending”) (+1)
    7. Kevin Bray, Insecure (“Lowkey Feelin’ Myself”) (+1)
    8. Prentice Penny, Insecure (“Lowkey Lost”) (+1)
    9. Michael Schur, The Good Place (“Whenever You’re Ready”) (-4)
    10. Tom Marshall, Ted Lasso (“Pilot”)

    Limited/Movie

    1. Susanne Bier, The Undoing
    2. Lynn Shelton, Little Fires Everywhere (“Find a Way”)
    3. Lenny Abrahamson, Normal People (“Episode 5”)
    4. Maria Schrader, Unorthodox
    5. Scott Frank, The Queen’s Gambit

    6. Sam Miller and Michaela Coel, I May Destroy You (“Ego Death”)
    7. Steve McQueen, Small Axe : Mangrove
    8. Albert Hughes, The Good Lord Bird (“Meet the Lord”)
    9. Hannah Fidell, A Teacher (“Prototype”)
    10. Janicza Bravo, Mrs. America (“Houston”)

    WGA

    Drama

    1. The Crown (Netflix)
    2. Better Call Saul (AMC)
    3. Ozark (Netflix)
    4. The Mandalorian (Disney+)
    5. Industry (HBO)

    6. This is Us (NBC)
    7. P-Valley (Starz)
    8. Lovecraft Country (HBO)
    9. Perry Mason (HBO)
    10. Evil (CBS)

    Writing – Comedy Series:

    1. What We Do in the Shadows (FX)
    2. Pen15 (Hulu)
    3. The Great (Hulu)
    4. Dead to Me (Netflix)
    5. The Good Place (NBC)

    6. Ramy (Hulu)
    7. Insecure (HBO)
    8. Curb Your Enthusiasm (HBO)
    9. Zoey’s Extraordinary Playlist (NBC)
    10. Ted Lasso (AppleTV+)

    Writing – Long-Form (Adapted):

    1. The Queen’s Gambit (Netflix)
    2. The Undoing (HBO)
    3. Your Honor (Showtime)
    4. The Good Lord Bird (Showtime)

    5. A Teacher (FX on Hulu)
    6. The Comey Rule (Showtime)
    7. Fargo (FX)
    8. Bad Education (HBO)
    9. The Plot Against America (HBO)
    10. I Know This Much is True (HBO)

    Writing – Long-Form (Original):

    1. Mrs. America (FX on Hulu)
    2. Unorthodox (Netflix)
    3. Small Axe : Mangrove (Amazon)
    4. Devs (FX on Hulu)

    5. The Eddy (Netflix)

    Writing – New Series:

    1. The Great (Hulu)
    2. Industry (HBO)
    3. P-Valley (Starz)
    4. Ted Lasso (AppleTV+)
    5. Zoey’s Extraordinary Playlist (NBC)

    6. Never Have I Ever (Netflix)
    7. Lovecraft Country (HBO)
    8. Perry Mason (HBO)
    9. Emily in Paris (Netflix)
    10. Bridgerton (Netflix)

    FYC OSCARS : VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", GLENN CLOSE FOR "HILLBILLY ELEGY", ANTHONY HOPKINS FOR "THE FATHER", CHADWICK BOSEMAN FOR "MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM", PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN (BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY).

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    wolfali
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    #1203776407

    So I had a look at the winners of PGA and the only time either the Globe or the Emmy winner has lost Drama there since 2013 was in 2017 when Stranger Things won and The Crown was miraculously snubbed for the nomination.

    Unless The Crown loses the Globe (I’ll be very shocked in that scenario because I think The Crown is easily winning the Globe and Ozark is easily winning DGA) it is also winning PGA.

    FYC OSCARS : VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", GLENN CLOSE FOR "HILLBILLY ELEGY", ANTHONY HOPKINS FOR "THE FATHER", CHADWICK BOSEMAN FOR "MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM", PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN (BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY).

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    boss
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    #1203778133

    Writing – Long-Form (Original): 2. Unorthodox (Netflix)

    Unorthodox is based on a memoir.

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