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September 23, 2019 at 5:36 pm #1203098772
Julia Garner! Black Mirror: Bandersnatch! Otherwise I flopped.September 23, 2019 at 6:22 pm #1203098863
I guess Bandersnatch. For the most part, I had the winner either right or second.September 23, 2019 at 10:04 pm #1203099114
These were my best Emmy predictions ever. I did better than all of the Experts and my fellow Editors and came sixteenth overall, so I am ready to gloat.
Some things I called very early before nominations. Julia Garner was ultimately the most predicted in her category, but she was the least-predicted out of the ones who were predicted the most in the 27 categories. So people would continually ask why she was the front-runner and I would link them to the explanation that I had written up a long time ago.
Black Mirror over Deadwood was more impressive because Deadwood finished the front-runner and it had way more nominations, plus nobody liked “Bandersnatch”, which I acknowledged. I made my argument very early about why Black Mirror would be underestimated all season long and why that was wrong.
71% predicted Julia Louis-Dreyfus, but I slotted Phoebe Waller-Bridge into my top slot as soon as nominations came out and all that the Creative Arts did was convince me to move Louis-Dreyfus down to third. Even people like Joyce who predicted Fleabag fairly early never moved Waller-Bridge into first. Out of the eleven Editors, Zach was the only other with Waller-Bridge in first. Everyone else had Louis-Dreyfus in first and I was the only one to have her down in third. Veep was ultimately shut out for the first time. The whole Veep narrative befuddled me and I was consistently more dismissive of it since nominations than any other pundit.
Just like in lead actress, even as people jumped on the Fleabag bandwagon toward the end as I did, few went so far as to include Harry Bradbeer, which I did. I said all season that whether I settled on Barry or Fleabag for comedy and Chernobyl or When They See Us for limited, I would predict that program to sweep series, writing and directing. I ultimately caved and predicted a split in limited and should have stuck to that instinct as I did in comedy.
I had Succession in writing at least since nominations. It ranked sixth in the odds back then and it only ever climbed to fourth.
Although I ultimately moved away from it, I will also claim Chernobyl. I had the series and Jared Harris in my nomination predictions back in freaking February and predicted it for the win in the first slugfest of the season. It would be months before it moved into the Gold Derby top five.September 23, 2019 at 10:51 pm #1203099174
Well to begin with I actually came THIRD in the prediction center which is my best Emmys showing ever!! So I am totally gonna gloat about that.
The prediction I am absolutely the most proud of is Patricia Arquette. I remember making the argument here that I don’t understand why Clarkson is an alleged “lock” when Joey King got nominated in Lead but Eliza Scanlen couldn’t get nominated in supporting. If the acting branch really saw Sharp Objects, or were passionate about it, Scanlen should have made it in. So I am glad I got that one right.
I am also happy about realising that Asante Blackk will be stealing too many votes from Michael Williams for Ben Whishaw to easily win.
I am still baffled at people not predicting Phoebe Waller Bridge in Lead Actress. I know JLD had won six times, but Veep had virtually lost support in every category, while Fleabag was beloved in almost every branch. So I am glad I predicted Waller-Bridge dethroning her. I actually had JLD in third.
Like @thedemonhog said, I predicted a Fleabag sweep because it didn’t make sense to predict Barry for directing while I had Fleabag taking series, Actress, writing, and Supporting Actress (got the last one wrong), after it took Casting and Editing. So I am glad I predicting its win in directing as well.
I knew that Maisel was not winning because that writing snub was absolutely vital, and I am glad I didn’t get swayed by Creative Arts and stuck to my guns.
I think Succession in writing and Chernobyl in writing are also predictions I am proud of, because as Riley helped me realize, the writing branch is just too savvy to not reward the best writing, especially if the show is a series nominee.
Of the predictions I was wrong in, I only regret TV Movie. I really should have predicted Black Mirror. That was stupid. All the other predictions I could never have gotten right so I don’t regret making them. Like there is no way I could have predicted Ozark in Directing (that one still baffles me, although I did him have him in 4th lol), and I could never have predicted Comer to overcome vote-splitting and not Oh.
The Chernobyl wins in Series and Directing too I couldn’t have predicted because I thought WTSU had too much passion.
Riley our predictions really overlapped a lot, so I am glad we did this well this year.September 24, 2019 at 12:10 am #1203099253
Chernobyl for series. Succession for writing. I originally had Chernobyl in directing too after the CA Emmys wins but decided to change it last minute because WTSU won for casting… Honestly, none of the Emmy wins were too surprising besides Bateman for directing who NO ONE predicted winning.September 24, 2019 at 12:16 am #1203099265
Fleabag in Series, Fleabag in Directing, Bandersnatch in TV Movie. And that’s it. I am much, much better at predicting the nominations.
Oscar FYC -- Give Viola Davis her second Oscar!September 24, 2019 at 12:18 am #1203099271
Probably everything regarding Chernobyl, I always knew it is the frontrunner. I wish I would have predicted it in Directing too, wasn’t expecting that almost complete WTSU shutout.
Other than that my predictions were pretty bad lol nothing to brag aboutSeptember 24, 2019 at 12:33 am #1203099290
Even though in the end I succumbed to peer pressure and predicted “The Long Night” for directing and would have still gotten it wrong because I always thought “Celebration” as it’s alternative, I do take pride in the fact that I was always adamant about “The Iron Throne” and “The Long Night” vote splitting. I wish I followed my original gut feeling on this.September 24, 2019 at 12:34 am #1203099292
I came 4th overall, but flopped with comedy. Pretty great overall, considering its my first time predicting.
Jodie Comer, Julia Garner, Succession in writing felt good.
Chernobyl sweep too, so happy for Craig Mazin. Never changed writing, directing, series from Chernobyl to WTSU, even after odds changed here.
- This reply was modified 1 year, 2 months ago by Alex.
- This reply was modified 1 year, 2 months ago by Alex.
WHY ARE YOU LOOKING AT ME?September 24, 2019 at 1:09 am #1203099304
I came 4th overall, but flopped with comedy. Pretty great overall, considering its my first time predicting. Jodie Comer, Julia Garner, Succession in writing felt good. Chernobyl sweep too, so happy for Craig Mazin. Never changed writing, directing, series from Chernobyl to WTSU, even after odds changed here.
Haven’t you predicted twice before? Regardless, you did amazing. Congrats.September 24, 2019 at 1:18 am #1203099313
Even though in the end I succumbed to peer pressure and predicted “The Long Night” for directing and would have still gotten it wrong because I always thought “Celebration” as it’s alternative, I do take pride in the fact that I was always adamant about “The Iron Throne” and “The Long Night” vote splitting. I wish I followed my original gut feeling on this.
The more interesting question would be who did predict Drama Directing right..September 24, 2019 at 9:03 am #1203099914
I also have a lot to brag for, these were my best Emmy predictions ever, but also the first ones in which I really tried. I did better than all the Experts and Editors with the exception of Riley and Pete Hammond and finished in 36 place overall, I couldn’t been prouder.
My biggest success were 10 out of 12 acting categories, I steak with Julia and I had Phoebe second for obvious reasons, but I had Borstein in fourth place, I never bought Olivia Colman, I had her third, I went with the underdogs – Gilpin and Clifford. The person who is supposed to win due to some Oscar win never wins.
I suppose that I must be the proudest about Jodie Comer (she was my super bet) and Patricia Arquette since I saw that even the winner Sagand didn’t had them, but I never had any doubts, I was sure that voters have seen the nominees and that there was no way for them to vote differently.
I never bought the Long Night in directing, I had Holly in first and Celebration in second. I had Nobody Is Ever Missing second, I went with Winner, but I will never ever going to predict Better Call Saul for anything. I had The Iron Throne in sixth place the whole time.
The writing of Fleabag and Chernobyl were no brainer for me.
My biggest regrets are Deadwood (I really disliked Bandersnatch and I am a huge Black Mirror fan, but it was stupid) and ronny/lily in Comedy directing.September 24, 2019 at 8:06 pm #1203100942
I won the prediction contest! So overall very happy with my predictions.
Happy I went with Phoebe Waller-Bridge over Julia. Everyone keeps repeating the mantra Emmys love repeats. It really hasn’t been true since the voting system has changed. I would be willing to bet none of this years acting winners will win again for their current roles. It didn’t seems to fit with trend to me that they would go with 6 times winning role when they had the fresh lead in the possible series winner.
Once you had Fleabag winning Writing, Series and Lead Actress; Directing just made sense. I predicted Colman too, but a vote split makes sense when one of them has the name and other has the screen time. Neither was much more showy than the other.
I think there might be a be of a ‘last seen’ over performance effect seen in the acting nominations, Barry over performed nominations after airing in the spring much like Atlanta last year (possibly When They See Us too). It’s become a bit of a trend at the Oscars that December releases over perform nominations morning.
In Drama most of the consensus picks made sense. I took a chance in Writing where Succession seemed the most writerly and quotable. So that was a good gut call. I was playing around with Drama actress right up until the center closed I ended up with Emilia Clarke I thought a Killing Eve vote split, a stronger GoT performance and a sympathy vote could result in that. I did have Comer above Oh though. Would have never guessed Ozark to win Directing.
I’d never really moved off a Chernobyl sweep in Limited Series. It was the bigger TV event and I think made more cultural impact. I do think the theory Directors go for the big name is over played. It’s my personal opinion Chernobyl was probably stronger in Directing than Writing. Jharrel Jerome had the strongest acting showcase so I thought that was the best place to reward When They See Us. One of my last minute swaps was Emily Watson out and Patricia Clarkson in, I wasn’t really considering Arquette in supporting, so no regret there. I thought if the actors had liked Chernobyl even a little bit another Skarsgard (this one deserving) could take the supporting actor category.
Makes it odder that A Very English Scandal couldn’t make limited series with Writing, Directing and Acting support, the techs must have blanked it or loved Sharp Objects. Bandersnatch always seemed to be the option people might gravitate to in a category lacking thing to root for.
It seems odd that the contest I win is the first in a long time I haven’t read everything in the forums or watched all the slugfests. I know how the common arguments go so I guess this year I could see the picture better from a bit further away or I got a bit luckier than usually, either way I’m sure I’ll be back at 900th place next year. 😛
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