I did a breakdown before the awards on public polls and surprisingly a few things did come out after.
Vanity Fair is most accurate followed by TV Line followed by (big shock) Buzzfeed who only got two winners correct (Shalhoub and Dinklage, which were unanimous across the board) Vanity Fair got Comer right when Gold Derby didn’t and whilst they didn’t predict Waller Bridge they expected it to be very close.
One trend that I picked up across all but one category.
Gold Derby predicted 6 of 6 wins
Public sentiment reflected all 6 nominees in 18 polls (3 outlets x 6 races) falling in the top 3 most liked even if they weren’t the winner (that includes Vanity Fair, TV Line and yes, even Buzzfeed)
Gold Derby predicted 4 of 6 wins
Borstein, Arquette, and Comer reflected the same trend as above – all three outlets chose them in their top three favourites of the year.
Both Vanity Fair and TV Line also supported this trend in the case of Waller-Bridge and Williams though Buzzfeed was not accurate.
In particular polls towards Louis-Dreyfuss showed very low percentages despite viewership clearly being there (Hale polled fine) – public polls were the most out of whack of any predicted actor of the 12 for Louis-Dreyfuss which should have been a red flag.
Gold Derby got Garner right but this was the only category where there was no reflection of trend in public polls. All three polls chose the same alternative winner, and all three placed Garner in the bottom three with Shaw always above her. However, Linney’s extraordinarily low percentage of votes as well as Bateman also ranking in the bottom of his polls gave a good suggestion to how out of step the public view of Ozark is compared to Academy.
In summary: unless it’s a highly unusual situation (and there was only one of those this year), Vanity Fair and TVLine not ranking your vote in the top 3 is bad news, and even Buzzfeed is still relatively accurate on this. Reviewing the sentiment in public polls towards the other nominees on the same show is also very useful.