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What nominations are key to winning a Series Emmy in 2017?

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  • Riley
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    #1202199515

    Past discussion: http://www.goldderby.com/forum/television/writingdirectingeditingsound-key-to-winning-series

    "I don't even believe in god, but I'm going to thank her tonight."

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    Riley
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    #1202199520

    http://www.goldderby.com/article/2017/2017-emmy-nominations-best-drama-series-correlated-news

    ‘Homeland’ was an upset winner for Best Drama Series in 2012 because it had the fewest nominations that year of the six Best Drama Series nominees. What ‘Homeland’ reaffirmed was that some nominations are more indicative than others when it comes to forecasting Best Drama Series. Let us examine how nominations in the various fields have correlated with the Best Drama Series winner since the Emmys revamped voting in 2002:

    Acting: 15/15 (100%)
    There are six acting categories for dramas and every Best Drama Series in the last 15 years has been nominated in at least one. Each of this year’s nominees is up in at least two.

    Writing: 14/15 (93%)
    Modern Best Drama Series winners without a writing nomination: ‘24’ (2006)
    It has been over a decade since the writers’ branch snubbed the eventual Best Drama Series.
    2017 Best Drama Series nominees without a writing nomination: ‘House of Cards’, ‘This is Us’

    Picture Editing: 14/15 (93%)
    Modern winners without a nomination: ‘Mad Men’ (2008)
    An editing nomination seems to be just as important at the Emmys as at the Oscars. The snub of ‘The Crown’ and others might be explained by the genre bias of the editors’ branch. Shows that were never nominated for Best Drama Series like ‘Alias’, ‘Battlestar Galactica’ and ‘Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles’ have been Best Drama Picture Editing nominees. Then again, the editors also nominated more human dramas like ‘Boston Legal’, ‘Downton Abbey’ and ‘Mad Men’ multiple years, as they contended for the top award, so the snub of ‘The Crown’ and others might be significant.
    2017 nominees without a nomination: ‘The Crown’, ‘The Handmaid’s Tale’, ‘House of Cards’, ‘This is Us’

    Directing: 14/15 (93%)
    Modern winners without a nomination: ‘Mad Men’ (2011)
    The directors’ branch nominated almost every recent Best Drama Series for Best Drama Series.
    2017 nominees without a nomination: ‘House of Cards’, ‘This is Us’

    Cinematography: 12/15 (80%)
    Modern winners without a nomination: ‘Homeland’ (2012), ‘Mad Men’ (2011), ‘Lost’ (2005)
    There are typically five nomination slots for drama cinematography, but there are seven Best One-Hour Cinematography nominees this year and no series is double-nominated.
    2017 nominees without a nomination: ‘Better Call Saul’, ‘House of Cards’, ‘This is Us’

    Casting: 12/15 (80%)
    Modern winners without a nomination: ‘Breaking Bad’ (2013), ‘The Sopranos’ (2007), ‘24’ (2006)
    It becomes harder to score a Best Drama Casting nomination the longer that a series is on the air. ‘Breaking Bad’ and ‘24’ won Best Drama Series when they were snubbed for casting their fifth seasons; ‘The Sopranos’ had a casting nomination when it won Best Drama Series for its fifth season, but not when it won again three years later. All of this year’s Best Drama Casting nominees are first-year shows.
    2017 nominees without a nomination: ‘Better Call Saul’, ‘House of Cards’

    Sound Mixing: 11/15 (73%)
    Modern winners without a nomination: ‘Mad Men’ (2010), ‘Mad Men’ (2009), ‘Mad Men’ (2008), ‘The West Wing’ (2002)
    Like the editing nominees, the Best One-Hour Sound Mixing nominees tend to be a mix of Best Drama Series contenders and more action-oriented fare, including series that were never nominated for the top prize like ‘Alias’, ‘Battlestar Galactica’, ‘Burn Notice’ and ‘Person of Interest.’ This again gives something like ‘Stranger Things’ a leg up over ‘The Crown’ since it ticks both boxes. The first season of ‘Mad Men’ notably overcame this pair of snubs.
    2017 nominees without a nomination: ‘The Crown’, ‘The Handmaid’s Tale’, ‘This is Us’

    Production Design: 8/15 (53%)
    Modern winners without a nomination: ‘Breaking Bad’ (2014), ‘Breaking Bad’ (2013), ‘Homeland’ (2012), ‘Mad Men’ (2010), ‘The Sopranos’ (2007), ‘24’ (2006), ‘Lost’ (2005)
    A record five Best Drama Series nominees were nominated in a Best Production Design category in 2014; ‘Breaking Bad’ was the only Best Drama Series nominee that was snubbed and it went on to win the top prize.
    2017 nominees without a nomination: ‘Better Call Saul’, ‘House of Cards’, ‘This is Us’

    Makeup & Hairstyling: 7/15 (47%)
    Modern winners without a nomination: ‘Breaking Bad’ (2013), ‘Homeland’ (2012), ‘The Sopranos’ (2007), ‘24’ (2006), ‘Lost’ (2005), ‘The Sopranos’ (2004), ‘The West Wing’ (2003), ‘The West Wing’ (2002)
    ‘Westworld’ is nominated for all three of Best Single-Camera Series Makeup, Best Single-Camera Series Hairstyling and Best Prosthetic Makeup.
    2017 nominees without a nomination: ‘Better Call Saul’, ‘The Handmaid’s Tale’, ‘House of Cards’

    Costumes: 7/15 (47%)
    Modern winners without a nomination: ‘Breaking Bad’ (2014), ‘Breaking Bad’ (2013), ‘Homeland’ (2012), ‘The Sopranos’ (2007), ‘24’ (2006), ‘Lost’ (2005), ‘The West Wing’ (2003), ‘The West Wing’ (2002)
    A record four Best Drama Series nominees are nominated in a Best Costumes category this year.
    2017 nominees without a nomination: ‘Better Call Saul’, ‘Stranger Things’, ‘This is Us’

    Sound Editing: 6/15 (40%)
    Modern winners without a nomination: ‘Homeland’ (2012), ‘Mad Men’ (2011), ‘Mad Men’ (2010), ‘Mad Men’ (2009), ‘Mad Men’ (2008), ‘The Sopranos’ (2007), ‘The Sopranos’ (2004), ‘The West Wing’ (2003), ‘The West Wing’ (2002)
    ‘Homeland’, ‘The Sopranos’ and ‘The West Wing’ each received a nomination for Best Series Sound Editing in a year when they did not win Best Drama Series.
    2017 nominees without a nomination: ‘Better Call Saul’, ‘The Crown’, ‘The Handmaid’s Tale’, ‘House of Cards’, ‘This is Us’

    Stunts: 3/15 (20%)
    Modern winners without a nomination: ‘Breaking Bad’ (2014), ‘Breaking Bad’ (2013), ‘Homeland’ (2012), ‘Mad Men’ (2011), ‘Mad Men’ (2010), ‘Mad Men’ (2009), ‘Mad Men’ (2008), ‘The Sopranos’ (2007), ‘Lost’ (2005), ‘The Sopranos’ (2004), ‘The West Wing’ (2003), ‘The West Wing’ (2002)
    None of the Best Drama Series nominees this year are nominated for Best Drama/Limited/Movie Stunt Coordination.

    Visual Effects: 3/15 (20%)
    Modern winners without a nomination: ‘Breaking Bad’ (2014), ‘Breaking Bad’ (2013), ‘Homeland’ (2012), ‘Mad Men’ (2011), ‘Mad Men’ (2010), ‘Mad Men’ (2009), ‘Mad Men’ (2008), ‘The Sopranos’ (2007), ‘24’ (2006), ‘The Sopranos’ (2004), ‘The West Wing’ (2003), ‘The West Wing’ (2002)
    2012 is the only other year in which three Best Drama Series nominees were nominated in a Best Special Visual Effects category.
    2017 nominees without a nomination: ‘Better Call Saul’, ‘House of Cards’, ‘Stranger Things’, ‘This is Us’

    Music: 3/15 (20%)
    Modern winners without a nomination: ‘Game of Thrones’ (2016), ‘Game of Thrones’ (2015), ‘Breaking Bad’ (2014), ‘Breaking Bad’ (2013), ‘Mad Men’ (2011), ‘Mad Men’ (2010), ‘Mad Men’ (2009), ‘Mad Men’ (2008), ‘The Sopranos’ (2007), ‘The Sopranos’ (2004), ‘The West Wing’ (2003), ‘The West Wing’ (2002)
    A record five Best Drama Series nominees are nominated in a Best Music category this year.
    2017 nominees without a nomination: ‘The Handmaid’s Tale’, ‘This is Us’

    Interactive Media: 1/15 (7%)
    Modern winners without a nomination: ‘Game of Thrones’ (2015), ‘Breaking Bad’ (2014), ‘Breaking Bad’ (2013), ‘Homeland’ (2012), ‘Mad Men’ (2011), ‘Mad Men’ (2010), ‘Mad Men’ (2009), ‘Mad Men’ (2008), ‘The Sopranos’ (2007), ‘24’ (2006), ‘Lost’ (2005), ‘The Sopranos’ (2004), ‘The West Wing’ (2003), ‘The West Wing’ (2002)
    This is the first year that there are four full Interactive Media categories with a set five slots apiece.
    2017 nominees without a nomination: ‘Better Call Saul’, ‘The Handmaid’s Tale’, ‘House of Cards’, ‘This is Us’

    Title Design: 1/15 (7%)
    Modern winners without a nomination: ‘Game of Thrones’ (2016), ‘Game of Thrones’ (2015), ‘Breaking Bad’ (2014), ‘Breaking Bad’ (2013), ‘Homeland’ (2012), ‘Mad Men’ (2011), ‘Mad Men’ (2010), ‘Mad Men’ (2009), ‘The Sopranos’ (2007), ‘24’ (2006), ‘Lost’ (2005), ‘The Sopranos’ (2004), ‘The West Wing’ (2003), ‘The West Wing’ (2002)
    All three Best Drama Series nominees that submitted for Best Main Title Design consideration this year were nominated.
    2017 nominees without a nomination: ‘Better Call Saul’, ‘The Handmaid’s Tale’, ‘House of Cards’, ‘This is Us’

    Choreography: 0/15 (0%)
    The only dramas that were even nominated recently were ‘Smash’ (2012) and ‘Boston Public’ (2003). No dramas are nominated this year.

    Technical Direction: 0/15 (0%)
    No dramas submitted for Best Series Technical Direction/Camerawork/Video Control consideration this year; the last nominated was ‘ER’ in 1998.

    "I don't even believe in god, but I'm going to thank her tonight."

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    Marco B.
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    #1202199526

    Well, if you put it this way, one has to be very brave to predict This Is Us for the win.

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    Riley
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    #1202199537

    http://www.goldderby.com/article/2017/best-comedy-series-2017-emmy-nominations-veep-atlanta-news

    When it comes to predicting the Emmy winner for Best Comedy Series, nominees tend to be discounted if they are not represented among the nominations for Best Comedy Directing and Best Comedy Writing. Best Comedy Casting seems to be significant too. Editing is important for the Oscars; is it also for the Emmys? Let us take a look at how categories have correlated since the Emmys revamped voting in 2002 to consider how the breakdown of nominations might affect the 2017 nominees for Best Comedy Series: ‘Atlanta’, ‘black-ish’, ‘Master of None’, ‘Modern Family’, ‘Silicon Valley’, ‘Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt’ and ‘Veep’.

    Acting: 15/15 (100%)
    Although every Best Drama Series winner of the last 15 years has had at least two acting nominations, two Best Comedy Series winners (‘The Office’ and ‘Arrested Development’) have had only a single performance nominated when they won the top prize, which is good news for ‘Atlanta’ and ‘Modern Family’, as each has only a single acting nomination this year. ‘Silicon Valley’ was shut out by the acting branch, but it was nominated in all seven other fields that have nominated multiple Best Comedy Series winners in the last 15 years. ‘Veep’ is the only nominee in all eight.
    2017 Best Comedy Series nominees with an acting nomination: ‘Silicon Valley’

    Sound Mixing: 13/15 (87%)
    Modern Best Comedy Series winners without a sound mixing nomination: ‘The Office’ (2006), ‘Arrested Development’ (2003)
    ‘The Office’ and ‘Arrested Development’ were snubbed when single-camera comedies had to compete opposite dramas in the general Best Single-Camera Sound Mixing category instead of in the Best Half-Hour Sound Mixing category that was introduced in 2007.
    2017 nominees without a nomination: ‘Atlanta’, ‘black-ish’, ‘Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt’

    Picture Editing: 13/15 (87%)
    Modern winners without a nomination: ‘Veep’ (2015), ‘30 Rock’ (2007)
    It was likely vote-splitting and not lack of support from the editors’ branch that cost ‘Veep’ a nomination in 2015, as ‘Veep’ had won Best Half-Hour Editing from the American Cinema Editors only months before, then submitted four episodes for Emmy consideration instead of one or two like most other comedies.
    2017 nominees without a nomination: ‘Atlanta’, ‘black-ish’, ‘Modern Family’, ‘Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt’

    Directing: 12/15 (80%)
    Modern winners without a nomination: ‘The Office’ (2006), ‘Everybody Loves Raymond’ (2003), ‘Friends’ (2002)
    It has been over a decade since the directors’ branch did not nominate the Best Comedy Series.
    2017 nominees without a nomination: ‘black-ish’, ‘Master of None’, ‘Modern Family’, ‘Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt’

    Casting: 12/15 (80%)
    Modern winners without a nomination: ‘The Office’ (2006), ‘Everybody Loves Raymond’ (2005), ‘Everybody Loves Raymond’ (2003)
    It has been over a decade since the Best Comedy Series was not up for Best Comedy Casting
    2017 nominees without a nomination: ‘black-ish’, ‘Modern Family’, ‘Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt’

    Writing: 11/15 (73%)
    Modern winners without a nomination: ‘Modern Family’ (2014), ‘Modern Family’ (2013), ‘Modern Family’ (2012), ‘Friends’ (2002)
    A Best Comedy Writing nomination is not the prerequisite to win Best Comedy Series that Best Drama Writing is for Best Drama Series.
    2017 nominees without a nomination: ‘black-ish’, ‘Modern Family’, ‘Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt’

    Production Design: 7/15 (47%)
    Modern winners without a nomination: ‘Modern Family’ (2013), ‘Modern Family’ (2012), ‘30 Rock’ (2009), ‘30 Rock’ (2008), ‘30 Rock’ (2007), ‘The Office’ (2006), ‘Everybody Loves Raymond’ (2005), ‘Everybody Loves Raymond’ (2003)
    The academy introduced the Best Half-Hour Production Design category three years ago, which has made for the only three-year streak of Best Comedy Series winners being nominated for their production design in the last 15 years.
    2017 nominees without a nomination: ‘Atlanta’, ‘black-ish’, ‘Master of None’, ‘Modern Family’, ‘Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt’

    Cinematography: 4/15 (27%)
    Modern winners without a nomination: ‘Veep’ (2016), ‘Veep’ (2015), ‘Modern Family’ (2014), ‘Modern Family’ (2013), ‘Modern Family’ (2012), ‘Modern Family’ (2011), ‘Modern Family’ (2010), ‘30 Rock’ (2007), ‘The Office’ (2006), ‘Arrested Development’ (2004)
    The academy introduced a Best Half-Hour Single-Camera Cinematography category this year, so more Best Comedy Series will likely be nominated for their cinematography going forward.
    2017 nominees without a nomination: ‘Atlanta’, ‘black-ish’, ‘Master of None’, ‘Modern Family’, ‘Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt’

    Music: 1/15 (7%)
    Modern winners without a nomination: ‘Veep’ (2016), ‘Veep’ (2015), ‘Modern Family’ (2014), ‘Modern Family’ (2013), ‘Modern Family’ (2012), ‘Modern Family’ (2011), ‘Modern Family’ (2010), ‘30 Rock’ (2009), ‘30 Rock’ (2008), ‘The Office’ (2006), ‘Everybody Loves Raymond’ (2005), ‘Arrested Development’ (2004), ‘Everybody Loves Raymond’ (2003), ‘Friends’ (2002)
    A record two Best Comedy Series nominees are nominated for an achievement in music this year.
    2017 nominees without a nomination: ‘Atlanta’, ‘black-ish’, ‘Modern Family’, ‘Silicon Valley’, ‘Veep’

    Interactive Media: 1/15 (7%)
    Modern winners without a nomination: ‘Veep’ (2016), ‘Veep’ (2015), ‘Modern Family’ (2014), ‘Modern Family’ (2013), ‘Modern Family’ (2012), ‘Modern Family’ (2011), ‘Modern Family’ (2010), ‘30 Rock’ (2008), ‘30 Rock’ (2007), ‘The Office’ (2006), ‘Everybody Loves Raymond’ (2005), ‘Arrested Development’ (2004), ‘Everybody Loves Raymond’ (2003), ‘Friends’ (2002)
    This is the first year that there are four full Interactive Media categories with a set five slots apiece. No comedies are nominated.

    Stunts: 1/15 (7%)
    Modern winners without a nomination: ‘Veep’ (2016), ‘Veep’ (2015), ‘Modern Family’ (2014), ‘Modern Family’ (2012), ‘Modern Family’ (2011), ‘Modern Family’ (2010), ‘30 Rock’ (2009), ‘30 Rock’ (2008), ‘30 Rock’ (2007), ‘The Office’ (2006), ‘Everybody Loves Raymond’ (2005), ‘Arrested Development’ (2004), ‘Everybody Loves Raymond’ (2003), ‘Friends’ (2002)
    The Best Comedy Series winner has submitted only once since the academy created the Best Comedy/Variety Stunt Coordination category four years ago. ‘Atlanta’ was the only Best Comedy Series nominee that was both submitted and snubbed for stunt consideration this year.
    2017 nominees without a nomination: ‘Atlanta’, ‘black-ish’, ‘Master of None’, ‘Modern Family’, ‘Silicon Valley’, ‘Veep’

    Sound Editing: 0/15 (0%)
    The last comedy nominated for Best Series Sound Editing was ‘M*A*S*H’ for its series finale in 1983.

    Visual Effects: 0/15 (0%)
    The last comedy nominated for Best Visual Effects was ‘Suddenly Susan’ in 1998.

    Makeup & Hairstyling: 0/15 (0%)
    No comedies have been nominated by the makeup branch in the last four years.

    Choreography: 0/15 (0%)
    Comedies have received four Best Choreography nominations in recent years: ‘The Real O’Neals’ (2017), ‘Crazy Ex-Girlfriend’ (2016) and ‘Malcolm in the Middle’ (2006 and 2004).

    Technical Direction: 0/15 (0%)
    Two comedies have been nominated for Best Technical Direction/Camerawork/Video Control in recent years: ‘The Big Bang Theory’ (2010 and 2012–2017) and ‘30 Rock’ (2011–2012).

    Title Design: 0/15 (0%)
    The last (Best) Comedy (Series nominee) with a Best Main Title Design nomination was ‘Silicon Valley’ in 2014.

    Costumes: 0/15 (0%)
    Comedies ‘Grace and Frankie’ and ‘Transparent’ are nominated for Best Contemporary Costumes this year.

    "I don't even believe in god, but I'm going to thank her tonight."

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    Miles
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    #1202199587

    If I were to make my predictions solely on these statistics they’d be:

    1. Westworld
    2. Stranger Things
    3. The Crown
    4. The Handmaid’s Tale
    5. Better Call Saul
    6. House of Cards
    7. This Is Us

    1. Veep
    2. Silicon Valley
    3. Master of None
    4. Atlanta
    5. Modern Family
    6. Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt
    7. black-ish

    Of course, you shouldn’t make your predictions just on these statistics (I don’t think that very many people would predict Modern Family in fifth or black-ish in last) but they are very telling. I think the biggest takeaway is that This Is Us is being massively over predicted and that Westworld is being massively under predicted. Right now I have The Handmaid’s Tale in first and Westworld in second but I might switch before Emmys night…

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    CanadianFan
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    #1202199707

    Oh, hey, Westworld should be ranked higher than fifth, eh?

    /s

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    wilfredpickles
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    #1202199717

    If Westworld wins I’m sure it will make a lot of sense in retrospect, but right now it’s tough to measure any passion for it beyond its high nomination total, compared to something like Stranger Things, The Handmaid’s Tale or even The Crown

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    Lord Freddy Blackfyre
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    #1202199724

    Were is the passion?…Anthony Hopkins in Lead Actor say hello.

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    RRaw
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    #1202199900

    In a Political year like this THT may trump all the stats

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    wilfredpickles
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    #1202199982

    The only major nomination the Handmaid’s Tale seems to be missing is editing, Which we’ve seen another relatively recent first season winner overcome (Mad Men). I think it has a great shot given several of its nominations in key categories were unexpected

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    Marco B.
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    #1202200128

    Oh, hey, Westworld should be ranked higher than fifth, eh?

    Unless you’re younger than 12 you shouldn’t be so childish.

    And yes, you were right and I was wrong: Westworld should be ranked higher than fifth. Now I’m putting it in fourth, in fact.

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    Andrew D
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    #1202200169

    Unless you’re younger than 12 you shouldn’t be so childish.

    i think we are only two out of about 5 people who arent 12 😉

    Andrewsart.etsy.com

    Check out my online store 🙂

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    CanadianFan
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    #1202201418

    Oh, hey, Westworld should be ranked higher than fifth, eh?

    Unless you’re younger than 12 you shouldn’t be so childish.

    And yes, you were right and I was wrong: Westworld should be ranked higher than fifth. Now I’m putting it in fourth, in fact.

    I forgot about you (and don’t really care).

    C’mon, I’m talking about the GD odds.

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    Riley
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    #1202202902

    Atlanta is dead if these statistics are to be followed. It is missing from so many key categories. I am predicting it for now though because I think that these statistics are much less relevant when you do not need consensus to win, i.e. passion votes.

    The Handmaid’s Tale is also weak per the above, but it has a couple of outs. No first-season Outstanding Drama Series winner has ever premiered so late, so timing might have been what cost it some nominations. The other thing is that despite its sci-fi setting, The Handmaid’s Tale is a relatively human drama; the first season of Mad Men (that missed the likes of editing and sound) is a good template. Plus, this year seems to have more genre heavyweight contenders than ever, so there are not as many slots to go around for shows that the academy likes, but are not actually that worthy in particular fields. Sticking with Stranger Things for now, but I will jump ship so fast when the casting winners are announced.

    "I don't even believe in god, but I'm going to thank her tonight."

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    wilfredpickles
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    #1202203066

    Atlanta is dead if these statistics are to be followed. It is missing from so many key categories. I am predicting it for now though because I think that these statistics are much less relevant when you do not need consensus to win, i.e. passion votes.

    Yeah, I haven’t checked the nominations of modern Comedy winners like I did for Drama, in part because it’s mostly been the same shows for a while, but Atlanta would be a very unusual, though I suppose not impossible, winner purely based on its nomination total.

    Honestly, maybe it’s too anecdotal but it does concern me that Casting is its only nomination that isn’t for Donald (or Stephen) Glover, much like how Master of None didn’t seem likely for Series last year when every nomination was for Aziz.

    I remember saying in another thread previously that this could be an interesting year since I believe we’re yet to see the popular vote system give us a Series winner (am I wrong in thinking that GoT, Veep and OJ would’ve won in any system?) and that this could happen in Comedy. Right now I have Master of None since my gut feeling is that it’s a middle ground between passion (Atlanta) and nominations (Veep)

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