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What will the Comedy/Drama main acting category repeats be?

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  • Diet Teridax
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    #1202602502

    WilfredPickles pointed this out to me and it kind of blows up my current predictions the more I think about it. “Just did some quick research and it’s worth bearing in mind that across the Comedy and Drama acting categories no more than 2 of the previous year’s winners have won since the 66th Emmys (when 3 did), so that crosses voting system and holds no matter how many were eligible and/or nominated.”

    Just for everyone’s information, out of all 8 main Comedy/Drama categories on the main show, the 4 for each side, 2 lead and 2 supporting each, if you are predicting more than 3 upsets you are already taking a huge risk. 2 is reasonable and more than realistic. 3 is a stretch but a logical one considering the competition of some of the specific categories this year.

    Right now I am predicting 6 repeat winners. That is way too much to happen, so here is how I rank those predicted repeats from most likely at 1 to least likely at 6. Tell me what you think. Overconfidence can be a killer.

    1. McKinnon
    2. Brown
    3. Moss
    4. Glover
    5. Dowd (Kirby though? Bledel?!)
    6. Baldwin

    What are your predicted repeats? Bill Hader has a ton of buzz and I do think it is possible Bryan Tyree Henry could be Atlanta’s only major acting win. Besides, Glover can win other categories like Writing for “Alligator Man” or Comedy Guest Actor or even as a producer of Atlanta should it win Comedy Series. He is nominated for Directing “FUBU” from Atlanta, but I think Murai will win for “Teddy Perkins” in a landslide there. I think Emmy voters know about Glover’s other chances. Plus, he was supposed to not be as present in Season 2 of Atlanta acting-wise, but I haven’t seen any of Season 2 so can’t comment on that myself. I’ve never been sure about Dowd yet can’t work up the nerve to switch to anyone else, so I’m playing it safe, if not too safe by keeping her as my #1. Baldwin I have because of all those SNL nominations like Bryant and Thompson and even Jones getting back in. I could easily see him losing. What are the odds SNL sweeps all 4 acting categories again that it submits to? Last year felt like an anomaly in that it pulled that off, but then again this year SNL managed 22 nominations, so maybe… I don’t know. Please let me know your thoughts and what your own repeat winners are, thank you.

    Note to myself: Don’t ever feed the trolls. Don’t get involved in others drama. Don’t let myself be swayed by others predictions, trust my gut more often!

    Note to all others: If you don’t happen to like me, ignore me. It is that simple.

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    wilfredpickles
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    #1202602505

    Hey thanks for the shout out!

    It only seems fair to share my thoughts here: right now I’m predicting repeats for Glover and Moss only.

    I’ve got Winkler over Baldwin, Borstein over McKinnon (that Family Guy nod sticks out to me, she hadn’t been nominated in voiceover for years), Kirby over Dowd and Rhys over Brown (although the last one feels way too obvious and I’ll probably switch)

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    Diet Teridax
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    #1202602506

    Hey thanks for the shout out!

    It only seems fair to share my thoughts here: right now I’m predicting repeats for Glover and Moss only.

    I’ve got Winkler over Baldwin, Borstein over McKinnon (that Family Guy nod sticks out to me, she hadn’t been nominated in voiceover for years), Kirby over Dowd and Rhys over Brown (although the last one feels way too obvious and I’ll probably switch)

    I think Borstein is more likely to win Voice-Over for Family Guy since that is more of an iconic role. If you predict Rhys, then you better predict Russell, since Emmy actors branch voters have made it more than obvious every year they have no sincere passion for the show. I think Maslany’s win over Russell in 2016 is enough for me to have her in 3rd place, ahead of Russell. They could just still go and check off both Americans leads because “Eh why not? Their show has gotten so much acclaim, I don’t see why not?” However, that “why not” mentality doesn’t feel as realistic considering how strong both categories are. Brown also got a 2nd acting nod for Comedy Guest, but then again Laurie Metcalf lost 3 Emmys for acting not that long ago. Jeffrey Wright could win as an I.O.U. for last year. I don’t want to predict Jason Bateman, but even though he was his shows only acting nod that didn’t hurt Louie Anderson, Donald Glover, Rami Malek, and Tatiana Maslany when they won their Emmys. I think it could help that Ozark Season 2 is coming out close to the Emmys, but it will only help if it is better-received than Season 1 was. Kirby over Dowd makes perfect sense. I won’t predict it yet, gotta mull that one over. What about Bledel who also won last year, albeit in Guest, not Supporting? I think Winkler’s nomination really is his reward and that if any Barry actor has enough passion to win it is Bill Hader himself. This won’t be a Bob Newhart winning for The Big Bang Theory kind of career win, this was a totally different level of more intense competition that Winkler has to deal with. I think Winkler is well-liked in the industry, but the snobs who don’t think his craft is “prestige” enough or find his role is “anti-Trump” enough (because of Baldwin’s win last year I have to count that as a thing) will keep him Emmy-less. Bryan Tyree Henry seems like the safest way to go, especially since with Lakeith Stanfield snubbed there is no possibility of the plurality voting system leading to vote-splitting. Classic Teridax here lol. Call someone a “slam dunk” and within hours I’m considering switching from that so-called “slam dunk.” I think Moss is much less likely to repeat than Brown simply due to Brown’s competition being more divided in passion while Claire Foy more than Maslany and even Russell seems to have solidified her status as the biggest other contender.

    You are most welcome for the shout out! Thank you for the predictions-saving information!

    Note to myself: Don’t ever feed the trolls. Don’t get involved in others drama. Don’t let myself be swayed by others predictions, trust my gut more often!

    Note to all others: If you don’t happen to like me, ignore me. It is that simple.

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    vinny
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    #1202602547

    I think Glover, Mckinnon, and Moss will repeat. Maybe Baldwin…..not completely sure he will.

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    wilfredpickles
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    #1202602744

    Maybe Baldwin…..not completely sure he will.

    I think the SNL buzz has cooled off. The nominations hide that but I’d guess it wins max 5-6 Emmys this year, a sizeable drop from last year’s 9. Probably 2 acting categories instead of sweeping (even just guest actress?), Variety Sketch Series and Variety directing, maybe music and lyrics and some other tech award.

    Last season I even thought it would upset John Oliver in writing, whereas I would be shocked if that were the case this time.

    If you predict Rhys, then you better predict Russell, since Emmy actors branch voters have made it more than obvious every year they have no sincere passion for the show.

    I know, I was doing the maths and realised how little sense predicting just Rhys makes if you assume that voters are either going to choose both or neither of the Americans leads. I don’t see Bateman happening at all so I’ll switch to Brown or Wright

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    Pulp
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    #1202602747

    Right now I have Brown, Moss, and Glover repeating. I can see repeats happening in every category where it’s possible as boring as that would be.

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    Riley
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    #1202602748

    The issue is that we have only had the current system for two years and not only did new shows dominate last year, but a lot of the stuff that won the year before was out of the race, so there were relatively few opportunities for repeats last year. What I took away from the first year of the new system was that the Emmys had no idea what year it was and they were prone just to keep awarding the same performances over and over again until something better came along. This was apparent from the wins by Tatiana Maslany, Ben Mendelsohn, Regina King and Margo Martindale. Last year threw me for a loop because the winners seemed so timely and because they went with so many obvious frontrunners after going with so many fringe, passion choices the year before. The guest acting winners were consistent with the kind of year that each of the last two years was, so they might help us.

    "I don't even believe in god, but I'm going to thank her tonight."

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    Anonymous
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    #1202602753

    The issue is that we have only had the current system for two years and not only did new shows dominate last year, but a lot of the stuff that won the year before was out of the race, so there were relatively few opportunities for repeats last year. What I took away from the first year of the new system was that the Emmys had no idea what year it was and they were prone just to keep awarding the same performances over and over again until something better came along. This was apparent from the wins by Tatiana Maslany, Ben Mendelsohn, Regina King and Margo Martindale. Last year threw me for a loop because the winners seemed so timely and because they went with so many obvious frontrunners after going with so many fringe, passion choices the year before. The guest acting winners were consistent with the kind of year that each of the last two years was, so they might help us.

    I agree with this a lot. But I think last year might be different because all of the shows were brand new. This is not the case this year, so I’m now thinking this year could end up like the first scenario you explained.

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    AwardsBait3818
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    #1202602838

    I’ve got Brown, Moss, Dowd, Baldwin, and McKinnon all winning again, only Glover not repeating. The only person who seems like they could upset Brown is Milo Ventimiglia, and since they’re both from the same show voters probably just go with Brown since he won last year. Moss could lose to Claire Foy or Tatiana Maslany, but since I have The Handmaid’s Tale winning series it wouldn’t make sense to predict her to lose. I don’t think vote splitting will affect Dowd as much as people think, Bledel and Strohovski might be more deserving, but they still don’t have Dowd’s years in the industry and character actress status. Like last year I think it’ll come down to her and Thandie Newton as she’s also considered an industry vet, and since Westworld has lost quite a bit of buzz I think Dowd wins rather easily. Baldwin and McKinnon are still political votes, so I think that gets them the votes to win. Maybe Baldwin loses because he was in this season considerably less than he was last year, in which case Tony Shalhoub, Henry Winkler, or possibly even Kenan Thompson since he’s been on SNL forever, win, but I won’t bet on it. McKinnon feels fairly safe. Barry’s got tons of buzz right now, so I think Bill Hader edges out Glover, though Glover certainly could repeat.

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    Diet Teridax
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    #1202603200

    The issue is that we have only had the current system for two years and not only did new shows dominate last year, but a lot of the stuff that won the year before was out of the race, so there were relatively few opportunities for repeats last year. What I took away from the first year of the new system was that the Emmys had no idea what year it was and they were prone just to keep awarding the same performances over and over again until something better came along. This was apparent from the wins by Tatiana Maslany, Ben Mendelsohn, Regina King and Margo Martindale. Last year threw me for a loop because the winners seemed so timely and because they went with so many obvious frontrunners after going with so many fringe, passion choices the year before. The guest acting winners were consistent with the kind of year that each of the last two years was, so they might help us.

    I just want to say that is why I am considering switching to Bill Hader for Comedy Lead Actor. They awarded Donald Glover last year, now something better has come along, so they might just reward Hader.

    Note to myself: Don’t ever feed the trolls. Don’t get involved in others drama. Don’t let myself be swayed by others predictions, trust my gut more often!

    Note to all others: If you don’t happen to like me, ignore me. It is that simple.

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    JROCK1772
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    #1202604940

    I have analyzed each category, besides Best Comedy Actress and Best Drama Supporting Actor, since neither have returning winners. Here’s a general rundown of how each respective category has awarded winners in recent years:

    Best Actor in a Comedy Series:
    Michael J. Fox (’00), Eric McCormack (’01), Ray Romano (’02), Tony Shalhoub (’03), Kelsey Grammer (’04), Tony Shalhoub (’05 + ’06), Ricky Gervais (’07), Alec Baldwin (’08 + ’09), Jim Parsons (’10 + ’11), Jon Cryer (’12), Jim Parsons (’13 + ’14), Jeffrey Tambor (’15 + ’16), and Donald Glover (’17).

    Based off of this category’s tendency to repeat winners, Glover seems to be a lock. Had McCormack not been snubbed in 2002 for a nomination, I bet this pattern might have been slightly more prevalent. The only anomalies in the past 18 years have been Fox (who won for his final season after announcing his Parkinson’s diagnosis / interrupted John Lithgow’s potential second set of repeat wins), McCormack (who had no defending winner), Grammer (on his final season), Gervais, and Cryer (allowing voters a breather between Parsons’ wins). Seeing how none of the other nominees have any of these aforementioned narratives, I would predict Glover as a repeat winner.

    Best Actor in a Drama Series:
    James Gandolfini (’00 + ’01), Michael Chiklis (’02), James Gandolfini (’03), James Spader (’04 / ’05), Kiefer Sutherland (’06), James Spader (’07), Bryan Cranston (’08 + ’09 + ’10), Kyle Chandler (’11), Damian Lewis (’12), Jeff Daniels (’13), Bryan Cranston (’14), Jon Hamm (’15), Rami Malek (’16), and Sterling K. Brown (’17).

    Unlike Best Actor in a Comedy Series, there are less instances of repeat winners. However, those that did repeat wins always earned at least three total wins in the category. The streak-breakers popped-up more frequently, each with vastly different races. Chiklis finagled a win for a new show without Gandolfini in the running, while multi-nominee Sutherland snuck in after a Spader overload for two different television series. Chandler won during Cranston’s off year, Lewis won for a knockout season without a potential repeat, and Daniels surprised with an overdue narrative. Hamm won for a final season and without a previous winner, just as Malek won without a previous winner, and Brown won without Malek being able to defend his title, due to a sudden lack of love for Mr. Robot. Brown has bested internal competition before (no winner has had a cast-mate in the running from 2000 to 2017), but Westworld also having two actors in contention could allows someone like Rhys or even Bateman to sneak in, especially since This is Us underperformed. Brown is formidable, but slightly vulnerable. Cranston went on a streak without major Emmy love for Breaking Bad in its first three seasons, so Brown could still be an easy shoo-in.

    Best Actress in a Drama Series:
    Sela Ward (’00), Edie Falco (’01), Allison Janney (’02), Edie Falco (’03), Allison Janney (’04), Patricia Arquette (’05), Mariska Hargitay (’06), Sally Field (’07), Glenn Close (’08 + ’09), Kyra Sedgwick (’10), Julianna Margulies (’11), Claire Danes (’12 + ’13), Julianna Margulies (’14), Viola Davis (’15), Tatiana Maslany (’16), and Elisabeth Moss (’17).

    This race is a bit more interesting, since only two actresses (Close and Danes) have won consecutive Emmys since 2000, while Falco and Janney traded off wins from 2001 to 2004. Falco also won in 1999, but Ward won for a knockout debut, keeping her in a one-on-one-off pattern. Falco returned in ’01, besting a less acclaimed Ward in a fairly weak year otherwise. Janney’s strong debut as the leading actress of The West Wing (after winning twice for supporting) got her the trophy in ’02, but ’03 and ’04 was really only between those two in terms of nominees.

    With The Sopranos failing to get acting nods in ’05 and ’06 and Janney missing the cut in ’05, the line-up changed and Arquette was able to sneak in in ’05, with Hargitay not having strong enough material until the following year. Although Janney reentered the conversation for her final season, Emmy voters ignored Arquette and favored Hargitay, whose best year in SVU’s seventh season running gave her a slight overdue factor over Sedgwick. Field came out of nowhere with a stellar role and bested three previous winners (Hargitay, Arquette, and Falco), as well as Driver (weak show) and Sedgwick (not enough hype yet).

    Close blew everyone out of the water in ’08 and, with the same field + a shaky Moss nomination for Mad Men, she easily took home a second. With Close’s show struggling and barely surviving a cancellation, Sedgwick finally got her due in ’10, but Margulies played her cards well and built up enough steam to take the crown in ’11, with Sedgwick falling out of the nomination pool anyways. Danes pulled a Close and stole the show in ’12 and ’13. Margulies would return in ’14, with Danes slowing down and Caplan, Dockery, Washington, and Wright not impacting the way they needed to in order to take the trophy. Unfortunately, Margulies would drop in ’15 and leave the door wide open for Davis to snatch. Hype around Davis would die down (she’d complete her Triple Crown with an Oscar, but her show was less praised), allowing Maslany to surprise for a woefully underrated performance from years prior. Maslany would be ineligible the year following, allowing Moss to score big time.

    Moss seems to have this one in my eyes, but the race is much tighter than other fields. Foy had a stronger second season and continued hype that accumulated across both seasons, similar to Margulies in ’11. Foy was definitely not beating Moss last year, but Moss did have a similar overdue narrative to Sedgwick. Perhaps she could turn it around, but The Crown does have considerably less hype than what The Good Wife had back then, despite both being Best Drama Series contenders. With that thinking, Wood poses the same, if not a greater threat for the same reasons. However, Westworld is not as centered around her as The Good Wife or The Crown, which may hurt Wood. Oh seemed possible, but all of the debuts from past years have had much bigger breakouts and mostly weaker fields. Russell is nearing the proximity of Hargitay in ’06, but could a final season put her over the edge? Maslany has the rebound capability of Margulies from ’14, but is she strong enough?

    I’ll continue with the remaining categories later…

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    Riley
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    #1202605060

    Tape. System. Preferential. Ballots. Small. Panels.

    "I don't even believe in god, but I'm going to thank her tonight."

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    joesilver
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    #1202607105

    Brown
    Moss
    Dowd
    Glover
    McKinnon
    Baldwin

    All the drama / comedy acting winners will be repeat winners with the exception of Dreyfus and Lithgow for obvious reasons

    The only new winner will be Rachel Brosnahan because Supporting Actor will be another repeat winner: Peter Dinklage.

    This will be one of the most boring and predictable Emmy Awards

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    Emmyfan
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    #1202607162

    Baldwin has no business winning based on his horrible submission. If Baldwin wins, then an audit should be done and those that voted for him should have their voting privileges revoked.

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    Riley
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    #1202607171

    Did you see his tape last year?

    "I don't even believe in god, but I'm going to thank her tonight."

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