April 12, 2012 at 11:18 am #242605
Please discuss these six different Emmy streaks/trends and reasons why one or more have the best chance at stopping this year.
We may do a blog item for the home page using some of your responses and reasons, so be witty and smart. Get ready for your close-up.April 12, 2012 at 11:33 am #242607
I have a feeling that Drama Serie, Drama Actor and Drama Supporting Actor might stop this year. I don’t why.. it’s just a feeling.
I think that Aaron Paul has a chance at winning again this year so he will break the streak. Or maybe Peter Dinklage.
I don’t why but i have this feeling that Bryan Cranston might not win. I don’t watch the show so I really don’t know why I’m thinking this.
And Mad Men could win again but it faces serious competion: Homeland, Breaking Bad and Game of Thrones.
Comedy actress will for sure go to another one this year. The only one who could repeat is Joulia Louis-Dreyfuss.
Jeff Probst and the Daily Show will not lose anytime soon.April 12, 2012 at 12:17 pm #242608
Going out on a limb and saying The Daily Show. Just have that feeling.April 12, 2012 at 12:32 pm #242609
I don’t see anybody beating both Dinklage and Paul, so for sure that streak will be over this year.
Mad Men could be beaten this year, but this streak is less likely to be over than the supporting actor…April 12, 2012 at 12:40 pm #242610
I think Mad Men’s streak will finally end. It lost almost all of its races last year so voters are finally cooling on the show. Plus, there’s an insane amount of buzz for “Downtown Abbey” which clobbered the Emmys last year in the miniseries races. I’d be very surprised if “Downtown Abbey” lost Best Drama Series.April 12, 2012 at 1:05 pm #242611
^I’d be surprised if it won. Season 2 was uneven. I’d go with Breaking Bad, Homeland or Game of Thrones.April 12, 2012 at 1:51 pm #242612
Word.April 12, 2012 at 1:52 pm #242613
Unless Downton Abbey gets the Modern Family treatment.April 12, 2012 at 1:56 pm #242614
haha lol………i just realized its ” Downton Abbey ” not ” Downtown Abbey “………i feel so dumb lolApril 12, 2012 at 2:30 pm #242615
16 different men winning Supporting Actor in a Drama over the last 16 years (and 27 over the last 29 years) is an unbelievable streak and a testament to the strength of the category year after year. While certain categories are notorious for rewarding the same people over and over again, Supporting Actor in a Drama has always been one to spread the wealth.
That being said, it is unlikely that the streak will hit 17 years. Paul and Dinklage are surely the two front-runners at this point, and it looks as though they’ll stay that way, at least up through the release of the nominations.April 12, 2012 at 2:53 pm #242616
opinion, I believe that “Mad Men” will finally end it’s streak and
“Breaking Bad” will finally conquer the category because of many
reasons. Let me give you some history background:
before it’s first win in 2004, “The Sopranos” won a bunch of times
for acting (James Gandolfini – 3x / Edie Falco – 3x / Joe Pantoliano – 1x) and
writing (3x), but never won for Outstanding Drama Series.
the evening of September 21, 2003, even though Gandolfini, Falco, Pantoliano,
and writing won for the fourth season, “The West Wing” still took
home the win after just winning one other award, directing, with Sorkin adding
one final Emmy to his collection. I’m positive that after “Sopranos”
took home those four awards, before Outstanding Drama Series was announced,
that a bunch of people were thinking that this might finally be the year
that “Sopranos” wins … but NO! The reason for that fourth
win for the “TWW” was because it had much best submissions
than “Sopranos”. The fourth season of “Sopranos” wasn’t
even that great as it’s previous season, with only “Whoever Did This”
and “Whitecaps” being the highlights of season four. On the other
hand, the fourth season of “TWW” was great, but not as superb as it’s
previous three. I guess, back then, the Academy seemed to appreciate the acting
of “Sopranos” greatly, but not the show as a whole … yet.
on the evening of September 19, 2004, “Sopranos” won the
Emmy for it’s fifth season. The reason for that win was
because “Sopranos” had much best submissions than
“TWW” and it finally had the submissions that it needed for the
Academy to recognize it. The expectations of “TWW” went down with the
leave of Aaron Sorkin and Thomas Schlamme. When John Welles took over, the
writing of the show wasn’t as marvelous as the first four seasons and many
people thought that the show declined from it
fineness. “Sopranos” won once again, in 2007, for it’s
second half of the sixth and final season.
for “Everybody Loves Raymond”. Before it’s first win in 2003, the
show won a bunch of times for acting (Ray Romano – 1x / Patricia Heaton – 2x /
Brad Garrett – 2x / Doris Roberts – 3x), but never won for Outstanding Comedy
the evening of September 22, 2002, even though Romano, Garrett, and Roberts won
for the sixth season, “Friends” took home the win for their first
time for their eight season, along with a win for Jennifer Aniston. I’m
positive that after “Raymond” took home those three awards, before
Outstanding Comedy Series was announced, that a bunch of people were thinking
that “Friends” might not win and “Raymond” might finally
win … but NO! Both shows had superb seasons and episode submissions, but I
guess, back then, the Academy seemed to appreciate the acting of
“Raymond” acting, but not the show as a whole … yet.
on the evening of September 21, 2003, “Raymond” won the Emmy for it’s
seventh season with wins for Garrett, Roberts, and writing as well. The reason
for that win was because “Raymond” finally had the submissions that
it needed for the Academy to recognize it. It won once again, in 2005, for it’s
ninth and final season.
those shows went through the same thing before their actual first win and I
believe that “Breaking Bad’ can do the same as “Sopranos” and
“Raymond”. Now, with “Mad Men” winning four times and the
fifth season not looking as excellent as it’s others, it seems like the trophy
should definitely go to “BB” because it has won four times for acting
(Bryan Cranston – 3x / Aaron Paul – 1x), it hasn’t won yet, and if it submits
in the right and appropriate tapes … it will win. I’m basically saying that if
those other shows didn’t win the top prize for it’s first few years and just
won a bunch of times in acting categories for a while until it’s eventual win, “BB”
can do the same exact thing. This season of “BB” does to have
brilliant tapes and even if “MM” is magnificent in it’s fifth season,
“MM” won’t have a chance at having an episode comparable to the the
episodes that “BB” had in it’s fourth season. “MM” will
certainly not have a “Box Cutter” or a “Face Off”. It’s a
Gilligan really wants “BB” to win and succeed at this year’s Emmys,
the six episodes he needs to submit are: “Box Cutter”,
“Hermanos”, “Salud”, “Crawl Space”, “End
Times”, and “Face Off”. He not submit any episodes in between
“Box Cutter” and “Hermanos” because those episodes didn’t
bring as much impact and intensity as the final four episodes of the season.
fourth season of “BB” has been been critically acclaimed and has been
on the top lists of many critics. In addition from receiving universal acclaim
from critics, the show received a 96% out of 100% on Metacritic, making it the
highest ranked season of the series. The fourth season of “MM”
received a 92% out of 100% on Metacritic, making season four their highest
ranked season of the series as well, and that season of “MM” went on
to win the Emmy for Outstanding Drama Series. The fourth season of
“BB” also won the Writers Guild of America Award for Dramatic Series
and Episodic Drama. In fact, for the past four years, whenever “MM”
took home the WGA for Dramatic Series it won the Emmy for Outstanding Drama
Series, along with three writing wins. Can “BB” do the same thing?
if Bryan Cranston really wants that fourth Emmy, which he deserves, he needs to
submit in “Crawl Space” because the episode kept viewers in a vise
grip of suspense and it basically has Walt running around in the entire episode
with nerves and fear, starting with Walt’s reaction and fretting over the fact
that Hank wants him to drive to the laundry station where Walt’s secret meth
lab is. The expression on Walt’s face is amazing. He later has a scene where he
goes to Jesse’s house letting Jesse know that Gus will probably try to kill
him, him being Walt, begging for Jesse to help him out. He then has the scene
where Walt is held as a hostage in the desert kneeling below Gus listening to
his threats, with Walt letting Gus know how he feels about Gus’ plans and that
he knows that he’ll never kill him no matter what with excellent dialogue. The
next scene shows Walt anxious and jumpy when he goes to Saul’s office letting
Saul know that he wants the card with the information of the guy that’ll make
him and his family disappear for good because of the danger that he’s in. And
then … the final scene of episode shows a desperate Walt discovering that his
cash stash under the floor of his home has vanished when he needs it the most.
As he lays there in dirt, he aguishly cries creepily mutating into deranged
laughter. All I could hear was Cranston’s fourth Emmy being engraved.
supporting actor category, Giancarlo Esposito will basically be nominated and
win for his role as Gus Fring because he had a kind a role that many others
have won for: An supporting character with a dark past and/or secret, whom
eventually die, commit suicide, or murdered in an unexpecting, surprising way,
who are only in at least one or two seasons of the show. As a matter of fact,
the character of Gus dies in an amazing scene in the finale, “Face
Off”, leaving the audience in shock. Let’s face it, the Academy loves
those kinds of roles, and love to recognize and honor those people who have
portrayed those characters.
The past winners of that character-type are:
• Margo Martindale for “Justified” (2011)
• John Lithgow for “Dexter” (2010)
• Å½eljko Ivanek for “Damages” (2008)
• Drea de Matteo for “The Sopranos” (2004)
• Joe Pantoliano for “The Sopranos”(2003)
Gus Fring is
basically the male version of Mags Bennett and has a character as sick and evil
as Arthur Mitchell. The past winners have won because of episode submissions
that focus on their character. Esposito, for example, has the perfect, and I
mean “perfect”, episode that centers on his character and it is
basically the “Gus episode” of the series: “Hermanos”
“Hermanos” pulled the loose thread a bit more and showed us the once
unflappable Gus crack. Gus’ strength–in addition to Princeton MBA-grade
business acumen–has always been his ability to will his sense of control on
others. No matter what’s going on around him, he’s the proverbial cucumber or
other side of the pillow, and Gus is on full display in a scene of that episode
when he’s called in for questioning by Hank and his drug-busting crew. Taking
heat from all directions, Gus deflects nagging questions of his connection to
Gale’s murder with gentlemanly poise and convincing alibis. Even though I knew
better, Esposito was so good he had me believing these new lies as fact.
But we can
tell he’s on the brink of something we’ve never seen before: weakness. That
scene was masterfully edited and directed. It’s cat and mouse all up in here,
with Hank and the other agents slowly building a case and Gus toppling down
everything with each calm response. The quick cuts to the agents and back to
Gus create an atmosphere of gears grinding in everyone’s head, particularly in
Hank and Gus, making the tension wonderfully uncomfortable. It may have just
been a bunch of guys sitting around a table on the surface, but it was so much
more than that inside their heads.
And then …
Gus is in an elevator and we see it: The finger twitch as Gus’ world crumbles
around him. Is he worried? Is he angry? Is he shitting his pants? We hear the
bells as the elevator passes floors but all we can really think of is the bell
that Uncle Hector taps, some foreshadowing of the history between the two that
unfolded years before, the last time that Gus lost control.
perfect submission for Esposito and is guaranteed to be nominated, with an
eventual win. It’s a possible category lock because there have been no re-runs
in this category. I don’t agree at all that Aaron Paul and Peter Dinklage are
the top dogs in their category, and that they’ll break the streak of no
re-runs. Esposito needs to submit in “Hermanos” if he really, really
wants to be nominated and win. He was also recently nominated for a Saturn
Award for Best Supporting Actor on Television, which Aaron Paul won two years
ago. The show has also won the Saturn Award for Best Syndicated/Cable
Television Series in 2009 and 2010, and is nominated again this year, expected
Michael Pitt, from “Boardwalk Empire”, submits in the episode
“Under God’s Power She Flourishes”, the Academy, if they watch it,
might consider and prefer Pitt’s performance over Esposito. It is an
Emmy-worthy, tour-de-force performance delivered by Pitt and it is an episode
all about Jimmy’s emotional and shocking past. It is the perfect episode for
Pitt’s character and it is basically the “Jimmy episode” of the
series. He is then shot and killed in cold blood in the next episode, which is
an advantage for him. This is the only problem for Esposito, that is if Pitt is
even nominated and submits in that specific episode. And if that is the case,
Pitt will be Esposito’s biggest competition.
As for the others:
• Vince Gilligan: “Box Cutter” (writing) / “Face Off”
• Anna Gunn (please go supporting): “Open House”
• Michael Slovis: “Box Cutter” (or “Crawl Space”)
• Skip MacDonald: “Box Cutter” (or “Face Off”)
• Aaron Paul: “End Times” (or “Problem Dog”)
• Adam Bernstein: “Box Cutter”
• Scott Winant: “Crawl Space”
• Michelle MacLaren: “Salud”
Chris Boomer … I am dead serious about everything I wrote and I know that if
“Breaking Bad” submits in those six exact episodes they will win,
along with Cranston submitting in “Crawl Space” and Esposito,
especially, submitting in “Hermanos”. They can do it! It needs to be
done! Listen to me.April 12, 2012 at 3:20 pm #242617
Mad Men won’t win again. Even if the season gets better towards the later episodes, it still feels like old news.
Homeland is the fresh breath of air this category needs and made enough impact to take MM down.
Bryan Cranston might not repeat as well, I’d say voters like Kelsey Grammer and that kind of performance enough to stop Cranston from winning again.April 12, 2012 at 3:38 pm #242618
Also to add to your point JSydel, if Aaron Paul submits End Times like he should that will for sure help Giancarlo Esposito win because he has a few scenes in that episode that could help him win especially the last scene of spider scenes when Walt what’s to kill Gus.April 12, 2012 at 4:18 pm #242619
I’ll go out on a limb and say Louis-Dreyfus wins this year.
Formerly known in the forums as PianoMann.April 12, 2012 at 4:28 pm #242620
I’d say Drama Supporting Actor streak of no repeats has the best chance of ending. Aaron Paul has one or two episodes he could submit that are better than the one he won for. And the “Game of Thrones” season is young yet, so Peter Dinklage might be able to give him a run for his money.
“Mad Men” could lose. But the show hasn’t lost any of its cool factor, its ratings are up since last season, and there’s no one contender that seems likely to take it out, except maybe “Homeland,” but that’ll depend on how widely embraced it is. “Boardwalk Empire” no longer has that new-show smell, and “Breaking Bad,” which I think is the better show, may be too dark and depressing.
I don’t think “Daily Show” will lose this year. Cranston has at least one episode that would be his best submission since the pilot (“Crawl Space”), so I wouldn’t bet against him just yet. I could definitely see a new woman winning Comedy Actress (Poehler, Louis-Dreyfus, Dern). Jeff Probst has a lock on the Reality Host category at least until voters start nominating hosts who actually make a significant on-screen contribution to their shows, which doesn’t seem likely.
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