July 30, 2020 at 1:23 pm #1203615912
This year’s nominations made me think a lot about the concept of a show’s awards trajectory. We tend to think about trajectories as essentially one of two binaries: upwards or downwards. Breaking Bad had an almost perfect upwards trajectory, where as Homeland basically had the reverse. But is it that simple? While all five of these shows had pretty disappointing award results this year, only one of them remains a real critical favorite. Does that count for anything? Is it better to have a constant (almost stagnant) awards run, picking up and losing noms here and there and never really winning, or to have a really strong opener that proves industry support and then progressively lose it.
Obviously, if this year’s nominations taught us anything it’s that this stuff is unpredictable, but assuming these shows produce their next season with quality about on par with their most recent one, who has the potential to do the best moving forward? Also, are any of them completely done, even if they were to produce a fan-favorite season that could be be compared to their first?July 30, 2020 at 1:35 pm #1203615962
Stranger Things. It’s still a phenomenon and the fact it got into drama series with such a weak performance shows some pulse. With a spring release I believe it could do better than this year. Moss’ snub shows THT is on its death bed, it most likely won’t return. Better Call Saul is lucky next season is its last.July 30, 2020 at 1:41 pm #1203615981
I think they can all rebound, depending on the quality of their seasons and the climate in which they’re competing. This year, I think, was very much in a vacuum (due to the circumstances), and I don’t think we’ll see this happen again.
I am most worried about This Is Us because it had arguably its best season yet, but severely underperformed. Same goes for Saul, but that one will be competing for its final season next time, and we all know how shows tend to underperform for penultimate seasons. THT, Stranger Things and WW, on the other hand, were competing for their least acclaimed seasons but still did okay-ish, which makes me think they could rebound with good timing and great seasons. THT and ST’s Best Drama Series noms prove that there’s still some support for them left, even if not as much as in prior years. And, don’t forget, both aired an entire year ago!July 30, 2020 at 3:06 pm #1203616384
Stranger Things seems like the kind of industry and mainstream favourite that can rally late around its fifth season as they sometimes do. The other four have been falling too dramatically to reverse course. It is so rare that things rebound anyway that things should not be given the benefit of the doubt by default. The best template for Stranger Things is 24. It burst onto the scene with PGA and TCA Program of the Year wins, plus a Globe for Kiefer Sutherland. It chugged along at the Emmys for a few years, picking up various craft wins, but falling out of writing and directing fairly quickly. It even fell to eight nominations for its third season, but its haul was always respectable. Then the field opened up a bit and it had arguably its best season, so it exploded to its most nominations, even while falling out of casting because it was so old by then. Stranger Things has admittedly not been quite as good as 24 at hanging onto its nominations, but it compensates by being a bigger commercial hit. On the surface, it is not so far removed from the other four in the poll (and my argument is easy to dismiss by mentioning the David Harbour snub), but I contend that its decline has been smoother, which suggests a leveling off and less concern for the future.July 31, 2020 at 9:21 am #1203618458
I know you’re not a fan of the show, Riley, so asking you to say something positive about it probably hurts lol, but on what planet does Better Call Saul not perform better for its last season than it did for this season? Unless you’re looking at potential wins, in which case, yes, I’d agree Stranger Things is probably best poised.July 31, 2020 at 9:35 am #1203618474
Better Call Saul has only one more Emmy cycle to compete and Stranger Things has two, so they will definitely never be dropped. Westworld was snubbed because it had a terrible season, depending on the quality of further seasons it may come back but I’m not that hopeful. The Handmaid’s Tale has this crazy ambition of lasting 10 seasons, if that really happens it will certainly get dropped along the way but if it lasts 5-6 seasons in total it might maintain its series nomination but that Moss snub is a big blow. For The Handmaid’s Tale and Westworld it depends on that year’s race and the quality of their seasons.July 31, 2020 at 10:55 am #1203618686This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.July 31, 2020 at 11:09 am #1203618708This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.July 31, 2020 at 5:18 pm #1203619508
on what planet does Better Call Saul not perform better for its last season than it did for this season?
Bob Odenkirk, Jonathan Banks and Rhea Seehorn all missed this year, along with “Bagman” in directing and editing and this happened despite series-best critical acclaim, so I do not see why I would be expected to have faith in its Emmy prospects.July 31, 2020 at 5:38 pm #1203619551
Two words: Farewell season.
Comedy Series - Abbott Elementary, Atlanta, The Great, Reservation Dogs, What We Do in the Shadows
Drama Series - Pachinko, Severance, YellowjacketsJuly 31, 2020 at 5:46 pm #1203619571
Umm she says hi…
"The Good Fight", "The Other Two" and "Station Eleven" in all categories, Sarah Lancashire ("Julia"), William Jackson Harper ("Love Life") and Luke Kirby ("The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel")July 31, 2020 at 5:54 pm #1203619576
Worth noting, Veep’s final season was its least acclaimed since the first season, which I think played a big role in its underperformance.July 31, 2020 at 6:06 pm #1203619598
Two words: Farewell season.
Ahh yes, that’s why Homeland (previous drama series winner) and Modern Family (five time comedy series winner) are swimming in nominations this year. Or why Veep (three times comedy series winner) performed so well last year.
As much as I wish Better Call Saul would have an Emmys explosion like Breaking Bad did in its final year, I don’t think it will happen. Maybe I’ll reconsider if it finally wins an award this year. BCS falling out of actor and editing bodes poorly. But I’d love to be proven wrong whenever the final season is eligible!
I say Stranger Things. Riley’s post above was very persuasive.July 31, 2020 at 6:06 pm #1203619600
Worth noting, Veep’s final season was its least acclaimed since the first season, which I think played a big role in its underperformance.
Even if the Veep comparison is flawed I feel like time after time we say shows will explode for their acclaimed final season simply it’s because of their acclaimed final season. Look at The Leftovers in 2017. Voters need to be watching and passionate about your show for you to pull a “Fleabag” or an “Americans”.
"The Good Fight", "The Other Two" and "Station Eleven" in all categories, Sarah Lancashire ("Julia"), William Jackson Harper ("Love Life") and Luke Kirby ("The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel")August 1, 2020 at 4:03 am #1203620169
It’s not about these shows but Saturday Night Live will continue to occupy at least half of the guest acting slots and Kate McKinnon will never be dropped unless she exists the show. The extended supporting slots will work in benefit for this show.Not now
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