August 6, 2012 at 9:03 am #254306
Not since I’ve been paying attention to the Emmys have there been so many shows that have the potential to dominate on the Emmy but also to be completely shut out.
Downton Abbey- it’s apparent that it’s popular among many voters. But it’s tapes are liteweight and covoluted, and voters have given huge nominations to new shows while dissing them at the ceremony. Buzz and Emmy appeal alone could get it wins, but it wouldn’t be a huge shock if it walked away with nothing.
Breaking Bad- It’s more popular with voters than ever but still didn’t manage to get a writing nod, which is telling. Cranston is the frontrunner but doesn’t have the best tape. Series, directing, lead actor and supporting actor wins are possible, but it could also end up empty-handed.
Homeland- It’s competitive in all the top five categories, but voters were modest with dishing out its nominations. Maybe its lack of extra nods is deceives. Mad Men didn’t get a great deal a major nods when it first wons series. Danes submitted a divisive tape. Lewis submitted well, but Cranston has had strangle hold on that category. It could win 3-4 major Emmys or nothing.
Girls- It received more love than most expected. The HBO brand and “new Sex and the City” tag could get it series, lead actress and writing wins. But it may be too loopy and young for some voters. (also it’s just not that good)
Mad Men- Mad Men seems to always been in the position to win big but it never happens. Series, writing and supporting wins are all plausible. But last year it was supposed to win a few major Emmy but only walked away with series. Are voters ready to leave it behind entirely?
Which show (particularly the dramas) is most likely to get shut out? I think at least one of those dramas will end winning not one major Emmy.August 6, 2012 at 9:33 am #254308
I would bet on Mad Men not winning anything.August 6, 2012 at 9:33 am #254309
Downton Abbey- It’s the only series that’s nominated in all the major categories,
Mad Men got into all the major categories even getting two guest acting nominations.August 6, 2012 at 9:38 am #254310
It didn’t get a directing nod, and I don’t count guest acting as a major category.August 6, 2012 at 9:42 am #254311
It didn’t get a directing nod, and I don’t count guest acting as a major category.
It did get a directing nomination for “The Other Woman”August 6, 2012 at 9:44 am #254312
Breaking Bad- It’s more popular with voters than ever but still didn’t manage to get a writing nod, which is telling. Cranston is the frontrunner but doesn’t have the best tape.
Cranston doesn’t have the best tape? Have you seen Crawl Space?
Damian Lewis has the second best tape and is a threat to win, but Cranston deservedly owns that category.August 6, 2012 at 10:00 am #254313
I looked over the nominations last night, and MM’s directing nod still didn’t register. I keep thinking Weiner about how Weiner was snubbed for “The Phantom”.
Of course who has the best tape is subjective. I personally have never thought that “Crawl Space” was a great Emmy tape.August 6, 2012 at 10:17 am #254314
I’m getting a major Six Feet Under vibe from Downton Abbey. It might win directing or maybe a single supproting Emmy or something but I am reluctant to give it anything else.August 6, 2012 at 10:46 am #254315
Have you really seen Crawl Space because Cranston’s tape is dynamite this year and it’s the year when he’s well ahead of the competition and while I agree that Lewis is a second, he’s not that close.
I actually think that the actual winners could be something like that:
Breaking Bad – Drama, Directing, Lead Actor, Supporting Actor
Downton Abbey – Supporting Actress (Froggat)
Homeland – Lead Actress, Writing
But Drama is very close and I wouldn’t be shocked unless the one in the envelope is Boardwalk Empire or Game of Thrones.
1. Breaking Bad
2. Downton Abbey
4. Mad Men
5. Game of Thrones
6. Boardwalk EmpireAugust 6, 2012 at 11:56 am #254316
DA has a real chance of going home empty-handed in the major categories, maybe Froggat but I’m not betting on this
BB will win actor, supporting actor and possibly directing
Homeland will win actress and possibly directing
MM will win series, supporting actress and writingRiley (the normal one, not the one who won the predictions contest)ParticipantAugust 7, 2012 at 2:55 am #254317
What I want to see is that potential “sweep” that I hear about every year actually come to fruition.
I always read in analyses, that some actor does not have much chance of winning based on performance, but could win if they are swept in under a sweep by their show (or film).
Yes, Modern Family won its major categories last year, but everyone already expected it to win series, writing, directing and supporting actor and supporting actress was without a strong frontrunner, if memory serves me correctly. My Emmy knowldege might not go back far enough, but I feel like I am still yet to see some beloved show win categories that it truly has no business winning. Let’s see Brendan Coyle win supporting actor in a Downton Abbey sweep. Let’s see Greg Kinnear win guest actor in a Modern Family sweep.
As much as I would realistically detest such wins, prove to me that sweeps are not just the stuff of legends.
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