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2018 Tony Race for Best Revival of a Musical

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  • Jeffrey Kare
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    Now that all three candidates for Best Revival of a Musical are officially open, it looks like the race will be between My Fair Lady and Once on This Island. Given the divided response to Carousel, that production is pretty much gonna have no chance of winning.

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    adamunc
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    Island‘s reviews overall were a notch better, but Fair Lady has Lincoln Center and its influence behind it. Also, the lead producer on Island does not have the greatest reputation in the industry, so that may cost it some votes. This one will probably be a nail-biter until the end. May be one of those cases where earlier awards groups’ choices can in fact be a little instructive about which way the wind is blowing.

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    jman02
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    And the problem with predicting who will win between the two is that they’re probably getting around the same number of nominations: Revival, probably Director, 2-3 acting nominations, and most of the tech and design categories.

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    TDV
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    Reviews are glowing for My Fair Lady, it could generate enough excitement going into the awards season – Bart Sher’s casting decisions for the leads and his tweak to the ending seem to have been quite astute. Likely nominations for Best Revival, Scenic Design, Costume, and Harry Hadden-Paton and Lauren Ambrose are in my estimation now dark horses for the Tonys. As for good old Norbert, he may have his 3rd Tony in the bag.

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    TDV
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    Agree it will be a nail biter OOTI is a beautiful and touching revival but we’ll have to wait and see – MFL has Bart Sher and riding on a #MeToo momentum. Saw Carousel in an early preview and knew right there and then it would fade soon and fast the direction just seemed disjointed

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    Jeffrey Kare
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    CBS Sunday Morning recently did a profile on Justin Peck, who is the choreographer of Carousel. Here, we get to see some footage of the production (including the lackluster set design and odd substitute for a real Carousel)…https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v-wWRhAszTA&list=PL_2Wk1WlmEySGppdZyq2StyesxPMVNZ4J&index=17&t=0s

    • This reply was modified 1 year, 5 months ago by  Jeffrey Kare.
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    Awardsfan1990
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    Should we consider him a lock to win Best Choreography?

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    Jeffrey Kare
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    At this point, I’d probably view Justin Peck the same way I view Lindsay Mendez in Featured Actress, more of a soft-frontrunner than a lock. While I do currently have him predicted to win Best Choreography, I could see some Tony voters not wanting to award Carousel (depending on how they feel about the production). The only person I could see beating him right now is Camille Brown for Once on This Island. Not only did she have to create dance numbers for such a small production in the round, but visibility could also help her as she recently choreographed NBC’s live production of Jesus Christ Superstar.
    Camille A. Brown (‘Jesus Christ Superstar,’ ‘Once on This Island’ choreographer) Interview

    • This reply was modified 1 year, 5 months ago by  Jeffrey Kare.
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    KyleBailey
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    I really hope Once on This Island pulls out a win. It would really help it’s box office out plus it would be a great way to honor the show in general since it’s first go around wasn’t given the same acclaim/legacy that My Fair Lady and Carousel have had (personally I think Once is a superior show in general to both of them)

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    Ted Stevenson
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    I think OOTI will take it since Bartlett Sher already has so many Tony winners through Lincoln Center that they don’t need to give him another one for this.

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    Jeffrey Kare
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    Now that the nominations have been announced, here’s what each of the three nominees for Best Revival of a Musical have going for them:

    Carousel-Despite the polarizing response to this current Broadway revival of Rodgers & Hammerstein’s masterpiece, it overperformed in nominations. Carousel got three more acting nominations than what most of us were expecting and it popped up in the design categories. Though with that being said, Jack O’Brien wasn’t nominated for directing, so that will (likely) be another strike against the production. You have to go all the way back to 2005 when the Jerry Zaks-helmed production of La Cage aux Folles won Best Revival of a Musical without a directing nomination.

    My Fair Lady-This current Broadway revival of the Lerner & Loewe classic did pretty much on par with what most of us were expecting. Though like Carousel, it received nominations in all four acting categories. Not to mention that My Fair Lady also received nominations for directing (Bartlett Sher) and choreography (Christopher Gattelli). It’s a critically-acclaimed production of an all-time classic, and I think it is more likely to win an acting award than the third nominee. Every Tony winner for Best Revival of a Musical since 2010 has also taken at least one acting award.

    Once on This Island-Despite doing pretty well in nominations, this current Broadway revival of the cult musical by Ahrens & Flaherty still (slightly) underperformed. It didn’t receive nominations in either of the featured acting categories, and Camille Brown was snubbed for Best Choreography. Can Once on This Island still win Best Revival of a Musical? It’s possible, though there is the question of how it could do in other categories. I think Michael Arden could still be a threat to win Best Direction of a Musical, but the show could still face some tough competition in other categories.

    • This reply was modified 1 year, 5 months ago by  Jeffrey Kare.
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    SHT L
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    I think My Fair Lady is by far a superior show in terms of music and book and acting to the only ok but emotional and easier-to-get-into for this generation Once on this Island, but I can see OoTI winning Best Revival for being an inspired and surprising production while MFL is being taken for granted for being such a first-rate production that took a risk with a slight change in tone, rhythm, and stage direction.

    I think Carousel is not winning this despite its nominations. I believe if there was more competition on the musical front and more well-received or at least ok-received shows, then MFL and OoTI would have been more likely than Carousel to still have the nominations it currently has. I think Carousel lucked out for not having much of any competition in the categories it was eligible for.

    • This reply was modified 1 year, 5 months ago by  SHT L.
    • This reply was modified 1 year, 5 months ago by  SHT L.
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    Xander Cassel
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    I absolutely despise My Fair Lady, so here’s rooting for Once on this Island!

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    SHT L
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    To me, it’s like a gymnastics fan who despises Nadia Comeneci, a basketball fan who despises Michael Jordan, etc.

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    Djoko
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    To me, it’s like a gymnastics fan who despises Nadia Comeneci, a basketball fan who despises Michael Jordan, etc.

    This is one of the worst comparisons I have ever seen in my life. Comparing My Fair Lady to Michael Jordan? WTF. Somebody’s elevator doesn’t go to the top floor.

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