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2019 Tony Awards Predictions Center Now Active

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  • adamunc
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    #1202819827

    There is only a fifth slot in Best Musical if the fifth place show is within three votes of the fourth. (Unless they changed the rule this year and I missed it.)

    Book and Score are limited to four nominees. The only categories that can have five are performance, direction, and choreography. Those assume a minimum number of eligible entrants to exceed the limit of four.

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    Jeffrey Kare
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    #1202819838

    They usually save the Best Orchestrations and design awards until after nominations are announced.

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    Chris Beachum
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    #1202819865

    We’re not adding in any more categories until after nominations and probably not making any more changes on the contenders or number of slots. Everything is correct and complete as far as we know.

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    Jeffrey Kare
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    #1202819918

    There is only a fifth slot in Best Musical if the fifth place show is within three votes of the fourth (unless they changed the rule this year and I missed it).

    Book and Score are limited to four nominees. The only categories that can have five are performance, direction, and choreography. Those assume a minimum number of eligible entrants to exceed the limit of four.

    Though I remember just as the eligibility period ended last year, the administration committee announced that if there are at least nine eligible candidates in any given category, then there would be five nominees. I don’t know if it’s going to be like that again this year yet.

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    Awardsfan1990
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    #1202819952

    Goldderby just opened up predictions, and they only have 17 out of 26 categories (the technical awards and Best Orchestrations didn’t make it in), plus they only have four slots for Best Book, Score and Musical. And Sawyer Nunes of Gettin’ the Band Back Together wasn’t a choice for Best Featured Actor in a Musical.

    Given how it was savagely ripped apart by critics and massively bombed at the box office, Gettin’ The Back Back Together will not be getting ANY Tony nominations, or even Outer Critics Circle, Drama League or Drama Desk nominations.

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    Jeffrey Kare
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    #1202819963

    If Broadway had their version of the Razzie Awards, I’m sure Gettin’ the Band Back Together would do pretty well there.

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    Xander Cassel
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    #1202820061

    I’m gonna call it now–Best Musical is between Hadestown and The Prom.

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    Anton Spivack
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    #1202820097

    I already did that: https://rantinfromanton.wordpress.com/2019/03/03/the-1st-annual-golden-turkey-award/

    Though I did enjoy Sawyer’s performance.  The acting wasn’t bad, even if the show was poorly written.

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    Lindsayisagoddess
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    #1202821600

    Though I remember just as the eligibility period ended last year, the administration committee announced that if there are at least nine eligible candidates in any given category, then there would be five nominees. I don’t know if it’s going to be like that again this year yet.

    I was wondering the same thing. If they continue that rule this year, then most of the categories will have five nominees, save Revival of a Musical.

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    adamunc
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    #1202821645

    There are only eight eligible new scores this year, but we could have five nominees in Book. That would mean that some very bad books get a Tony nomination, though. But it wouldn’t be the first time.

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    Jeffrey Kare
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    ^Yeah, whatever would get the fifth slot would just be there as filler. Not to mention that since there are only 7 play revivals this season, then we know that there’ll end up being 4 nominees for Best Revival of a Play.

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    Anton Spivack
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    #1202822192

    Actually there are more than eight new scores.  What about Philip Glass’ score to King Lear?

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    lacourseauxetoiles
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    #1202822203

    There are only eight eligible new scores this year, but we could have five nominees in Book. That would mean that some very bad books get a Tony nomination, though. But it wouldn’t be the first time.

    This is why I’m not a fan of the Tonys. An awards show in which bad work consistently gets nominated simply because there aren’t enough good options isn’t a worthwhile judge of anything.

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    adamunc
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    #1202822274

    Actually there are more than eight new scores. What about Philip Glass’ score to King Lear?

    Actually, Glass would make 9. And Danny Elfman has written music for Gary as well, so that would be 10. So if they do go to 5, we’ll have the same issue with some inferior work getting nominated. From preview reports, no one is a fan of the music in Lear, and apparently Elfman’s music for Gary is minimal but is the focus of one big scene.

    It’s not a great year for new scores. Hadestown is a known quantity and looks to be the frontrunner at this point. The Prom got some good reviews, but the songs I’ve heard from that had very pedestrian lyrics and it seems people were more excited about the performances than the score. Tootsie is a bit of an unknown quantity except for those who saw the Chicago tryout; the reviews were respectable for the music if not raves. I personally think Be More Chill has some downright embarrassing lyrics, but those may be the first four nominees. If there’s a fifth, it would have to be Beetlejuice (which none of the critics liked in DC), King Kong (can’t imagine this happening), Gettin’ the Band Back Together (which ain’t happening), Pretty Woman (again, all the numbers they’ve performed on TV were bland), or one of the play scores that are getting no buzz so far. They may be better off to just limit to 4 this season. (The Administration Committee actually has the latitude to reduce the number of nominees in a category as they deem fit, but they almost never do.)

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    prognosticator
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    #1202822979

    Actually, Glass would make 9. And Danny Elfman has written music for Gary as well, so that would be 10. So if they do go to 5, we’ll have the same issue with some inferior work getting nominated. From preview reports, no one is a fan of the music in Lear, and apparently Elfman’s music for Gary is minimal but is the focus of one big scene.

    It’s not a great year for new scores. Hadestown is a known quantity and looks to be the frontrunner at this point. The Prom got some good reviews, but the songs I’ve heard from that had very pedestrian lyrics and it seems people were more excited about the performances than the score. Tootsie is a bit of an unknown quantity except for those who saw the Chicago tryout; the reviews were respectable for the music if not raves. I personally think Be More Chill has some downright embarrassing lyrics, but those may be the first four nominees. If there’s a fifth, it would have to be Beetlejuice (which none of the critics liked in DC), King Kong (can’t imagine this happening), Gettin’ the Band Back Together (which ain’t happening), Pretty Woman (again, all the numbers they’ve performed on TV were bland), or one of the play scores that are getting no buzz so far. They may be better off to just limit to 4 this season. (The Administration Committee actually has the latitude to reduce the number of nominees in a category as they deem fit, but they almost never do.)

    I tentatively predicted Hadestown (which I think will end up winning), The Prom (it’s an original musical with an original score), Be More Chill and Tootsie (David Yazbek is a beloved composer and probably any other year would win but I think Anais will win for Hadestown).

    The featured actor in a play category is very tough for me to predict since I didn’t see the original cast of The Ferryman.

    I wish Torch Song was still open. Michael Urie should be nominated for leading actor but I didn’t predict him with all these spring shows. Also is there any chance the category placement of some of these actors could change?

    Leading actress in a musical is in my mind between Stephanie J. Block and Eva Noblezada. If Hadestown does as well as I think it can with the critics Eva has a shot. It depends on how big the role is too.

    Featured actress in a musical is a three way race between Amber Gray, Mary Testa and Ali Stroker. Gray might have a leg up since she’s likely to be the sole nominee from her show in that category and I am of the opinion Hadestown will be a hit. I saw the first preview of Oklahoma last night and it was Stroker who blew me away. However vote splitting is a reality. Mary Testa is a veteran and she’s very good too. A big caveat is that this production will divide people. I can see it winning revival and nothing else. (Director is a possibility but Rachel Chavkin will be up for Hadestown so I kind of think it’s hers to lose.)

    I’ll be interested to see how Tootsie and Beetlejuice do with critics.

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