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2020 Tony Awards predictions

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    Djoko
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    #1203359766

    I saw Girl from the North Country last night. Music and singing were awesome, but the book was terrible. It was confusing and very hard to follow. No way this wins Best Book. Also, no way this wins Best Musical. It’s Six’s to lose.

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    Juanald02
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    I would love for six to win best musical, but at this point the only thing possibly stopping it could be Flying Over Sunset. It has the pedigree, Lincoln Center, and an amazing team behind it; i’ll wait for reviews and reactions before I feel comfortable “declaring” a winner.

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    John Tracey
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    Also, no way this wins Best Musical. It’s Six’s to lose.

    I would love for six to win best musical, but at this point the only thing possibly stopping it could be Flying Over Sunset.

    I’d be surprised if Six even scores a nomination for Best Musical. It’s popular and fun and selling well, but I think you’ll have to comb through the reviews to find a NY critic who’ll deem it a cohesive, satisfying musical. I myself like it quite a bit – but it’s a 70 minute concert.

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    John Tracey
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    When can we expect the prediction game for the nominations to go live? I’d love to watch how the race shakes up between now the announcement.

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    Jeffrey Kare
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    I’d be surprised if Six even scores a nomination for Best Musical. It’s popular and fun and selling well, but I think you’ll have to comb through the reviews to find a NY critic who’ll deem it a cohesive, satisfying musical. I myself like it quite a bit – but it’s a 70 minute concert.

    An important factor Six does have going for it is that it’s a completely original musical not based on any pre-existing brand. Which is something the industry has really been championing this past decade. In 2010, three of the four Best Musical nominees (American Idiot, Fela!, and Million Dollar Quartet) were jukebox musicals of some sort, and they all lost to Memphis, which was the only contender that had an original score. Same thing happened in 2014 where A Gentleman’s Guide to Love & Murder won Best Musical over a revue (After Midnight), a big Disney production (Aladdin), and a jukebox/biomusical (Beautiful) as it was the only contender with a completely original score.

    • This reply was modified 6 months, 4 weeks ago by Jeffrey Kare.
    • This reply was modified 6 months, 4 weeks ago by Jeffrey Kare.
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    John Tracey
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    An important factor Six does have going for it is that it’s a completely original musical not based on any pre-existing brand. In 2010, three of the four Best Musical nominees…all lost to MemphisA Gentleman’s Guide to Love & Murder won Best Musical over a revue (After Midnight), a big Disney production (Aladdin), and a jukebox/biomusical (Beautiful)…

    Completely true. But to that I’d counter Gentleman’s Guide had prestige and *great* performances and Memphis at least had thematic weight. Six is enjoyably slim and has zero prestige. I’d love to see it celebrated, but I suspect its very best hope is to walk away with Best Score and nothing else (and I don’t think that’ll happen either).

    • This reply was modified 6 months, 4 weeks ago by John Tracey.
    • This reply was modified 6 months, 4 weeks ago by John Tracey.
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    DrewN92
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    #1203371040

    While Six isn’t typically what I think Tony voters would necessarily go for, I don’t really see another alternative this season for Best Musical. They historically don’t love jukebox musicals which really cuts down on the options. At least it is a creative way to tell the story, despite it being very concert-ish. Also Six did well at the Olivier’s so I don’t see it being snubbed across the board come nomination morning during a year when there are few completely original musicals.

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    Kevin Klawitter
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    #1203371092

    While Six isn’t typically what I think Tony voters would necessarily go for, I don’t really see another alternative this season for Best Musical. They historically don’t love jukebox musicals which really cuts down on the options. At least it is a creative way to tell the story, despite it being very concert-ish. Also Six did well at the Olivier’s so I don’t see it being snubbed across the board come nomination morning during a year when there are few completely original musicals.

    If Flying Over Sunset is well received, that could well dominate the field. And the sampling of music released so far has been promising.

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    adamunc
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    #1203371100

    It’s going to be between Six and Sunset. Moulin Rouge! will be nominated and they will fill the last couple of slots with some also-rans; Mrs. Doubtfire has an advantage in getting one of those by having an original score. Its reception in Seattle was respectable but it doesn’t have anything like the hype of Six or the pedigree of Sunset. Diana seems to be a bust so the last spot will come down to whether they like the jukebox flavor of Jagged Little Pill, Girl From the North Country, or Tina better. Sing Street could surprise I guess and get the feel-good filler slot.

    As for The Lightning Thief… girl bye.

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    Jeffrey Kare
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    #1203371105

    Luckily, Flying Over Sunset will be starting previews one week from tomorrow night. It’s always hard to tell with new works opening cold on Broadway. Sometimes, we’d get a hit like The Book of Mormon. Though other times, we’d get a flop like Women on the Verge of a Nervous Breakdown. With that being said, I am looking forward to reading responses from the first preview. Snippets I’ve heard from the score have sounded promising.

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    Awardsfan1990
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    #1203371215

    I wouldn’t count out Girl From The North Country yet. It received raves for its Off-Broadway premiere, and if it gets more raves this time, it shouldn’t be counted out. This time, it’s a jukebox musical that isn’t trying to call too much attention for being a jukebox musical, which is probably why Head Over Heels flopped last year. Plus, Bob Dylan is universally considered one of, if not, the greatest songwriters of all time.

    As I said last fall, I could see Six possibly getting backlash from some Tony voters who may think it’s trying too hard to be the next Hamilton in both its concept and execution. Plus, since it’s being staged like a pop concert, some Tony voters may think, “Well, that doesn’t really make it count as a musical.” A musical is a musical, not a pop concert. As for Flying Over Sunset, if films that glorify drug abuse don’t usually win the Oscar for Best Picture, then I don’t see how a musical that glorifies three real-life LSD addicts can win the Tony for Best Musical. Historical fiction like this involving real people can only go so far.

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    Jeffrey Kare
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    #1203371250

    I wouldn’t count out Girl From The North Country yet. It received raves for its Off-Broadway premiere, and if it gets more raves this time, it shouldn’t be counted out. This time, it’s a jukebox musical that isn’t trying to call too much attention for being a jukebox musical, which is probably why Head Over Heels flopped last year. Plus, Bob Dylan is universally considered one of, if not, the greatest songwriters of all time. As I said last fall, I could see Six possibly getting backlash from some Tony voters who may think it’s trying too hard to be the next Hamilton in both its concept and execution. Plus, since it’s being staged like a pop concert, some Tony voters may think, “Well, that doesn’t really make it count as a musical.” A musical is a musical, not a pop concert. As for Flying Over Sunset, if films that glorify drug abuse don’t usually win the Oscar for Best Picture, then I don’t see how a musical that glorifies three real-life LSD addicts can win the Tony for Best Musical. Historical fiction like this involving real people can only go so far.

    This is coming from the exact same genius who felt so confident that Emmy voters were going to be so mad at Russia that they’re not giving The Americans anything at all for its final season. Not only that, but he also so correctly predicted that Green Book was going to go home from the Golden Globes empty handed because of all the backlash it was receiving at that point. (sarcasm alert)

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    Awardsfan1990
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    #1203371266

    In this case, I do think my predictions have some merit. I can see some older, more conservative Tony voters not being drawn to either Six or Flying Over Sunset. For them, they may be too “out there” for them. Girl From The North Country may be more traditional in their eyes. Plus, if they’re baby boomers, as I assume most of them probably are, they’ll be very familiar with Bob Dylan’s music.

    • This reply was modified 6 months, 4 weeks ago by Alex Meyer.
    • This reply was modified 6 months, 4 weeks ago by Alex Meyer.
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    Jeffrey Kare
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    #1203371275

    They’re NOT gonna vote for a production just because it features material they’re very familiar with. If that was the case, An American in Paris would’ve easily won Best Musical over Fun Home in 2015 because it featured classic songs by George & Ira Gershwin.

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    Awardsfan1990
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    #1203371312

    In that case, An American In Paris was basically just a recreation of the Oscar-winning film and nothing more. Girl From The North Country is, at the very least, an original story that just happens to use Bob Dylan’s music. And it looks like it’ll have a lot more substance than most jukebox musicals usually have.

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