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2020 Tony Awards predictions

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    adamunc
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    #1203371326

    Most of the comments I’ve read from people attending previews say that substance is bullshit.

    Reviews will be very interesting on this one. I don’t know that they’ll be as favorable as they were at the Public; some shows just don’t transfer well. In addition to iffy audience reaction, it’s also struggling at the box office.

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    Jeffrey Kare
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    #1203371346

    In that case, An American In Paris was basically just a recreation of the Oscar-winning film and nothing more.

    For your information, I’ve seen the stage adaptation of An American in Paris, and it was not even close to being a recreation of Vincent Minnelli’s movie at all. I thought book writer Craig Lucas was able to create a whole new way of telling the story without coming across as a carbon copy of Alan Jay Lerner’s screenplay by adding some dramatic heft into it along with his own sense of humor.

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    Jeffrey Kare
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    #1203371348

    Most of the comments I’ve read from people attending previews say that substance is bullshit. Reviews will be very interesting on this one. I don’t know that they’ll be as favorable as they were at the Public; some shows just don’t transfer well. In addition to iffy audience reaction, it’s also struggling at the box office.

    Yeah, the commercial appeal of Girl From the North Country was always going to be limited. While it does utilize the songs of Bob Dylan, the story itself is quite a downer. Most tourists who come to New York City would much rather see lighter crowd-pleasing fare like Jagged Little Pill, Moulin Rouge!, Tina – The Tina Turner, etc. I too am very curious to read what critics will have to say tomorrow night. I also agree that there have been some cases where a production that proved to be quite a success where it originated didn’t translate well when it transferred like the Trevor Nunn-helmed revival of Oklahoma!, the most recent revival of Les Liaisons Dangereuses, and The Inheritance.

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    Jeffrey Kare
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    #1203371738

    As I said last fall, I could see Six possibly getting backlash from some Tony voters who may think it’s trying too hard to be the next Hamilton in both its concept and execution. Plus, since it’s being staged like a pop concert, some Tony voters may think, “Well, that doesn’t really make it count as a musical.” A musical is a musical, not a pop concert.

    Keep in mind that Contact won Best Musical almost 20 years ago despite a lot of controversy surrounding it being just a dance play with pre-recorded music and minimal dialogue. Meanwhile, Six actually has live music and more than just minimal dialogue. As for your theory about people thinking it’s trying too hard to be the next Hamilton, I have yet to find a comment from anyone who’s seen it saying that. I think if some backlash like that were to arise, we would’ve gotten a sense of it already.

    The same thing can be said for some other questionable theories you gave in the past like this comment you posted on Charles Bright’s Facebook page last year saying “Plus, another thing that may cost Jeff Daniels the Tony, and it may seem petty, but I wouldn’t be surprised if some Tony voters don’t vote for him because they think he’s not as good as Gregory Peck was in the movie.” I highly doubt voters even think like that because if they did, then they shouldn’t even be Tony voters. Performances should only be judged on the merit of what they are, NOT what they aren’t. If the latter was the case, then Bryan Cranston (Network) and Santino Fontana (Tootsie) wouldn’t have won Tonys last year just because voters didn’t think they were as good as Peter Finch and Dustin Hoffman were in their original screen counterparts. And besides, Jeff Daniels’ performance as Atticus Finch in To Kill a Mockingbird received universal acclaim from both critics and audiences. He probably would’ve won the Tony last year had it not been Cranston. If some backlash about him not being as good as Gregory Peck were to arise, we would’ve gotten a sense of it beforehand.

    With all due respect, it seems to me that when making predictions for any award show, you tend to run into a bad habit of overthinking things to your detriment.

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    DrewN92
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    #1203372104

    Unfortunately I think Girl From the North Country will be a non-factor at least in terms of winning major categories. I live in NY and have a fair amount of friends in the industry and I haven’t heard a single person who had positive things to say about it. I actually think its positive reviews when it was at The Public is hurting its Broadway run because at least for me and my friends who saw it on Broadway, we went in having high expectations that were not met.

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    24fanatic
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    #1203372288

    I hope you’re right about Girl From The North Country. On paper it does sound like the type of conservative boring pick that an awards body would go for. It feels like it has snob appeal. Any chance that voters just go with a fun, successful jukebox musical this year and pick Moulin Rouge? I don’t know, I’m asking because I haven’t seen either production.

    In terms of revivals, I’m hearing that Company is pretty great in previews and might be the frontrunner there. Apparently the supporting cast are all superb, but Tony winner Katrina Lenk, the lead, isn’t. That’s strange.

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    Jeffrey Kare
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    #1203372414

    Any chance that voters just go with a fun, successful jukebox musical this year and pick Moulin Rouge? I don’t know, I’m asking because I haven’t seen either production.

    I doubt it. Tony voters have pretty much been allergic to commodity musicals in recent years.

    In terms of revivals, I’m hearing that Company is pretty great in previews and might be the frontrunner there. Apparently the supporting cast are all superb, but Tony winner Katrina Lenk, the lead, isn’t. That’s strange.

    I’ve read some comments saying that, but she does have potential to improve over the course of previews.

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    Awardsfan1990
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    #1203372416

    I haven’t seen any of the productions, mainly because I live outside of New York City, but from reports, Moulin Rouge! was very heavily divisive amongst critics. So that severely hurts its chances. It may be raking in huge money at the box office, but box office alone does not guarantee a Tony win. If it did, then shows like Wicked, Newsies, and Mean Girls would have all walked away with Best Musical Tonys easily. Yet they all lost to smaller shows that had a more niche than mainstream appeal.

    Moulin Rouge! will probably sweep the design categories, because based on photos I’ve seen, its lighting, costumes, and sets practically scream to be awarded Tonys. And as Tom O’Neil frequently points out, it’s the show/film with the most of something that usually wins: the most lavish costumes, the most lavish sets, the brightest lighting, etc. We could probably see Best Actor/Actress In A Musical nominations for Aaron Tveit and Karen Olivo, but they’ll probably have no chance of winning. If the Featured Actor In A Musical category is weak, maybe Danny Burstein could walk away with a win due to the overdue factor. Yet that didn’t help him in 2016 for Fiddler On The Roof; a lot of people, including myself, thought that Lin-Manuel Miranda and Leslie Odom, Jr. would split Tony voters, but that obviously didn’t happen. And we all saw how the overdue factor didn’t help Glenn Close win an Oscar for The Wife or Steve Carell win an Emmy for The Office.

    • This reply was modified 6 months, 3 weeks ago by Alex Meyer.
    • This reply was modified 6 months, 3 weeks ago by Alex Meyer.
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    Awardsfan1990
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    #1203372421

    I hope you’re right about Girl From The North Country. On paper it does sound like the type of conservative boring pick that an awards body would go for. It feels like it has snob appeal. Any chance that voters just go with a fun, successful jukebox musical this year and pick Moulin Rouge? I don’t know, I’m asking because I haven’t seen either production.

    In terms of revivals, I’m hearing that Company is pretty great in previews and might be the frontrunner there. Apparently the supporting cast are all superb, but Tony winner Katrina Lenk, the lead, isn’t. That’s strange.

    Hopefully Patti LuPone is hailed as the standout in Company, because since she won at the Oliviers last year, I could easily see her winning a Tony as well. At least this time she won’t have to wait 28 years like she did in between her wins for Evita and Gypsy.

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    Jeffrey Kare
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    #1203372423

    Hopefully Patti LuPone is hailed as the standout in Company, because since she won at the Oliviers last year, I could easily see her winning a Tony as well. At least this time she won’t have to wait 28 years like she did in between her wins for Evita and Gypsy.

    I’ve read reports that she’s been receiving standing ovations after her rendition of ‘The Ladies Who Lunch’. I’ve also been reading that Matt Doyle and Jennifer Simard have both been hailed as standouts as well, so I’d keep both of them in mind for nominations.

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    Jeffrey Kare
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    #1203372464

    Yet that didn’t help him in 2016 for Fiddler On The Roof; a lot of people, including myself, thought that Lin-Manuel Miranda and Leslie Odom, Jr. would split Tony voters, but that obviously didn’t happen.

    I don’t think a lot of people were predicting the two men from Hamilton to split their support for Lead Actor in a Musical that year. While it definitely could’ve been possible for Lin-Manuel Miranda to be name checked in every category he was nominated in, there were people who felt his acting wasn’t the strongest aspect of his performance. Plus, he was already being awarded with Book and Score, so Tony voters had the opportunity to spread the wealth from him to another nominee with or without Leslie Odom, Jr.

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    Awardsfan1990
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    #1203372496

    Although, it is worth noting, when Michael Riedel interviewed some Tony voters back in 2016, several of them did admit to voting for Danny Burstein. So he probably ended up in 2nd or 3rd place when the final votes were tallied. https://nypost.com/2016/05/24/sorry-hamilton-wont-break-producers-tony-record/

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    Jeffrey Kare
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    #1203372526

    Though the New York Times voter poll that year said that Leslie Odom, Jr. was far outfront while Danny Burstein wasn’t even mentioned at all.

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    DrewN92
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    #1203373197

    I hope you’re right about Girl From The North Country. On paper it does sound like the type of conservative boring pick that an awards body would go for. It feels like it has snob appeal. Any chance that voters just go with a fun, successful jukebox musical this year and pick Moulin Rouge? I don’t know, I’m asking because I haven’t seen either production.

    For sure, I am in agreement with you. And it seems like a majority of the reviews for Girl are all positive which is genuinely baffling to me. So I guess we will see..And while I feel like a lot of people think Moulin won’t be a factor, I could see it pulling through thanks to it’s box office.

    • This reply was modified 6 months, 3 weeks ago by DrewN92.
    • This reply was modified 6 months, 3 weeks ago by DrewN92.
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