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2020 Tony Awards predictions

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    Jeffrey Kare
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    #1203248159

    While there may only be five new musical scores eligible this year, there’s also play scores to be taken into account as well.

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    adamunc
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    #1203248233

    Also in 1989 there were five new musicals with original scores but the category of Best Score was dropped, as if their music wasn’t considered worthy.

    Their music wasn’t worthy. There was also no award for Book that year. 1989 was a real low point for American musical theatre; all of the hits were from London. The failure of Legs Diamond that season was such a blow for Nederlander that they leased the Mark Hellinger to the Times Square Church and live theater lost a gorgeous house.

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    Anton Spivack
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    #1203248288

    I’m sure we’ll be seeing a lot of play scores get nominated for Best Score in the years to come. Maybe a straight play will win.

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    Anton Spivack
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    #1203248303

    Actually there were no hit new musicals of the 1988-1989 season. Only two of the six new musicals that season ran long and won Tonys–the revues Jerome Robbins’ Broadway and Black and Blue, which both closed in the red due to high production costs. Of the four book musicals–Welcome to the Club, Starmites, Legs Diamond and Chu Chem–all closed quickly and with that and last season’s Carrie, which closed after the Tonys eligibility date, only Starmites got a Best Musical nod. And of all those musicals, it’s Carrie and Starmites, both very campy, that are frequently performed today.

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    Anton Spivack
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    #1203251878

    At the Tonys, Hal Prince and Jerry Herman should get their own tributes at the In Memoriam portion. You know, Hal never directed any of Jerry’s shows, so they would make an interesting pairing.

    Also, for Best Choreography, I predict the five nominees will be:

    David Byrne’s American Utopia
    The Lightning Thief
    Moulin Rouge
    Tina
    West Side Story

    This was hard for me to predict since the musicals this season aren’t exactly known for their choreography.

    Edit 1/7: I just saw A Soldier’s Play and I suppose the marching and fight choreography would make them eligible, though I’m not sure if they’ll be nominated.

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    Anton Spivack
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    #1203271515

    Now that Sing Street is coming to Broadway I think it has a shot at Best Book, Score and Musical.

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    Awardsfan1990
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    #1203271535

    Critics’ reviews of the show Off-Broadway were mixed, saying that potential is there, but work is still needed. Even if its Broadway run is better received, the Tonys this year will pretty much be a three-way race between Six, Girl From The North Country, and Moulin Rouge!

    • This reply was modified 6 months, 4 weeks ago by Alex Meyer.
    • This reply was modified 6 months, 4 weeks ago by Alex Meyer.
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    Jeffrey Kare
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    #1203271556

    I don’t see Moulin Rouge! being in it to win Best Musical at all. My personal thoughts on the property aside, the show got mixed reviews from critics. As for Sing Street, I don’t know if the stage adaptation has enough new material to qualify for Best Original Score. Which was the reason why Once wasn’t eligible in that category back in 2012 because it only had like two original songs written exclusively for that show.

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    Anton Spivack
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    #1203271625

    Very well. Six, Girl From The North Country, and Moulin Rouge! will be up for Best Musical, I’ll have to wait and see what the other two nominees will be. Of course, with five of the ten new musicals being ineligible for Best Score, it’s a matter of which of the remaining five doesn’t get nominated.

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    Jeffrey Kare
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    #1203271829

    As I’ve mentioned before, I’d like to see how the rest of the season will turn out first before I officially start making my predictions. Though I will say that I think Moulin Rouge! does receive a Best Musical nomination for now, but I don’t think it’s a lock. The show proved to be very divisive among critics (even though they’re obviously not members of the Tony nominating committee). Of the new musicals that have opened on Broadway so far, it does look more likely to nab a slot than Jagged Little Pill, Tina, and most definitely The Lightning Thief. Of the remaining six to come, Girl From the North Country and Six are definitely locks based on buzz they’ve both received from prior productions. Mrs. Doubtfire received promising reviews out-of-town, so we’ll see how that will turn out on Broadway. We’ll also see if the creative team behind Sing Street will end up making the right revisions by the time the show opens uptown. Flying Over Sunset is a sight unseen given that it’ll be opening cold in New York, but the show does have a prestige factor going for it. Diana, I don’t see happening at all unless the creative team really pulls off a major overhaul from La Jolla.

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    adamunc
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    #1203271843

    There’s not nearly enough new material in Sing Street for it to be eligible for Score. The book came in for quite a bit of criticism off-Broadway, but Enda Walsh is highly respected and the competition this season for books is… let’s say sparse, other than Girl from the North Country. So it has a good chance at a nomination there.

    Six is looking more and more like a lock for Score, with the only possible derailing factor being the unknown Flying Over Sunset.

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    Awardsfan1990
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    #1203272072

    For the record, I don’t think Moulin Rouge! will actually win Best Musical, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s nominated. However, given how lavish the production is, I predict it win a lot of design categories like costumes, scenic, lighting, etc., and then Six and Girl From The North Country will dominate the top categories.

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    Kevin Klawitter
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    #1203298063

    So much focus on the musicals – let’s get into the plays again!

    Best Play
    The Inheritance
    The Lehman Trilogy
    The Minutes
    Slave Play
    The Sound Inside

    Best Revival
    Betrayal
    How I Learned to Drive
    A Soldier’s Play
    Take Me Out
    Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf?

    Best Actor in a Play
    Charlie Cox – Betrayal
    Paul Hilton – The Inheritance
    Tracy Letts – The Minutes
    Campbell Scott – A Christmas Carol
    Blair Underwood – A Soldier’s Play

    Best Actress in a Play
    Zawe Ashton – Betrayal
    Laura Linney – My Name is Lucy Barton
    Joaquina Kulakango – Slave Play
    Mary Louise Parker – How I Learned to Drive
    Laurie Metcalf – Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf?

    Best Featured Actor in a Play
    James Cusati-Moyer – Slave Play
    Jesse Tyler Ferguson – Take Me Out
    David Alan Grier – A Soldier’s Play
    John Benjamin Hickey – The Inheritance
    J. Alphonse Nicholson – A Soldier’s Play

    Best Featured Actress in a Play
    Ato Blankson-Wood – Slave Play
    Blair Brown – The Minutes
    Annie McNamara – Slave Play
    Lois Smith – The Inheritance
    Patsy Ferran – Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf?

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    Jeffrey Kare
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    #1203315483

    It should be interesting to see how the whole cast of Slave Play will end up being eligible in the acting categories. Will they all go featured or will at least one of them go lead? As of now, I think the race for Best Revival will be between Betrayal and A Soldier’s Play given all the acclaim both of those productions received. Of course, How I Learned to Drive, Take Me Out, and Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf? are possibilities, but they’re all sights unseen right now. As for Best Play, the five nominees I’m currently predicting are…

    Hangmen
    The Inheritance
    The Lehman Trilogy
    Slave Play
    The Sound Inside

    • This reply was modified 6 months, 1 week ago by Jeffrey Kare.
    • This reply was modified 6 months, 1 week ago by Jeffrey Kare.
    • This reply was modified 6 months, 1 week ago by Jeffrey Kare.
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    Awardsfan1990
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    #1203315893

    If The Minutes gets widespread acclaim, I think that could be a nominee. It was previously a Pulitzer Prize finalist.

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