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2022 Tony Awards Nominations (Predictions Center Now Open!)

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    Sam Eckmann
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    #1204967861

    @FreemanGriffin: I am really not sure why people continue to make out-of-town voters a talking point when discussing modern day Tony races. People like to say that these voters have a large voting bloc and prefer populist fare which they can easily sell to middle America. And they point towards years such as Millie beating Urinetown, Spamalot beating Light in the Piazza, Jersey Boys beating The Drowsy Chaperone as examples. But this is a VERY outdated piece of Tony history.

    Out-of-town voters USED to make up roughly 25% of the total number of Tony voters. That’s a fairly large number (if we assume all out of town voters voted the same…which is likely false). Hence the major efforts too woo these voters. Nowadays, out-of-town voters are closer to 10% of the total number of Tony voters. I was never a math wiz, but even I know you can’t win based on just 10% of voters. It’s not an inconsequential number, but not a game changing one either.

    If this myth that out-of-towners controlled the Tony outcome, and that they only wanted populist fare, actually still existed; then why didn’t Beautiful beat Gentleman’s Guide? Why didn’t An American in Paris beat Fun Home? Or Mean Girls over The Band’s Visit? Or Ain’t too Proud over Hadestown? Because it’s not just about populist material.

    On the road, having the stamp of “Tony Award winner for Best Musical” actually makes a huge difference in terms of selling a show. Most of America is not tapped into Broadway, so having that Best Musical stamp of approval can get ticket buyers to take a chance on purchasing a show that they don’t know anything about.

    If I am a road presenter trying to book national tours at my theater and I’m looking at this slate of nominees: I know that MJ will sell itself based on the recognizability of Michael Jackson. SIX will also be an easy sell thanks to it’s pre-Broadway success and success of its album. If I can get those two booked as part of my subscription season, I likely have two well sold hits on my hands. Tony Award win, or not. But I want to fill out my subscription season. The only way I will likely get my subscriber base to buy A Strange Loop is if I can advertise it with “Tony Winner: Best Musical” above the title. That will make people pay attention and grab tickets. If it doesn’t have that Tony seal of approval, it ain’t selling in my region. In this case I would absolutely want it to win Best Musical so that I have as many moneymakers in my upcoming tour season as possible.

    This is why (well, one of many reasons why) A Strange Loop can win this season.

    And boy do I really hope this “power of the out-of-town voters” Tony narrative can be put to bed. Anyone using this as a major talking point in their view of the race just doesn’t understand the current makeup of the Tony voting body. The goose is truly cooked on that argument.

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    FreemanGriffin
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    #1204968479

    @FreemanGriffin: I am really not sure why people continue to make out-of-town voters a talking point when discussing modern day Tony races. People like to say that these voters have a large voting bloc and prefer populist fare which they can easily sell to middle America.

    Out-of-town voters USED to make up roughly 25% of the total number of Tony voters. That’s a fairly large number (if we assume all out of town voters voted the same…which is likely false). Hence the major efforts too woo these voters. Nowadays, out-of-town voters are closer to 10% of the total number of Tony voters.

    Thanks for your response! I didn’t realize it was now only 10% of the voters! I am just trying to figure out some predictions.

    I keep thinking Myles Frost is going to win Best Actor in a Musical but I am probably just overthinking it!

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    Jeffrey Kare
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    #1204970634

    Roshunda Jones-Koumba of Houston, Texas is this year’s recipient of the Excellence in Theatre Education Tony Award.
    https://www.broadwayworld.com/article/The-Tony-Awards-and-Carnegie-Mellon-University-Present-2022-Excellence-In-Theatre-Education-Award-to-Roshunda-Jones-Koumba-20220602

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    FreemanGriffin
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    #1204971848

    Geez, I looked at my predictions and I am only predicting one upset (and that one is in second place in the odds!) Am I missing something or is this just an extremely predictable year for the Tonys???

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    adamunc
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    #1204971866

    I think it’s very predictable from an intellectual perspective based on the factors we normally weigh, but potentially limited numbers of voters eligible to vote in some categories could throw us some curveballs.

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    Sam Eckmann
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    #1204972049

    I’m hearing estimates of VERY low voter totals in some categories due to voters having not seen every production. It’s possible the play categories will be decided by the smallest number of voters in recent Tony history.

    So, while our normal tea leaves can definitely help us see the frontrunners in most of these races…it turns out this year is simply not normal. I expect we will have some truly shocking upsets due to the small voter pool in several races.

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    Jeffrey Kare
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    #1204972076

    It’s similar to the Oscars in how we usually get at least one surprise every year. Although every once in a while, we come across a year where there wasn’t really any big surprises. Hearing about those estimates of very low voter totals makes me curious to see how the results of this year’s Tony races will end up.

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    Djoko
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    #1204972079

    The Tonys are always predictable and this year will be no different. The NY Times voters poll will be almost 100% correct as usual.

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    Zooey the Dreamer
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    #1204972477

    I will predict some upsets, I always do. This is how I predicted Andrew Burnap last year. I simply knew he would prevail in the end (even though I’m pretty sure that Burnap being a virtual unknown helped him, as many voters thought they were voting for Solle).

    This year, I’m toying with the idea of going with:
    1. Hangmen for Best Play. I know this would be a shocker, but Tony voters owe Martin McDonagh, and The Lehman Trilogy is a dull show. (Full disclosure: I’ve seen the show in the UK but I doubt much has been changed.)

    2. I think A Strange Loop will take Direction of a Musical, as Tony voters have shown time and again that they prefer honoring original work in the directing categories. A Strange Loop isn’t as showy as Company, but I still expect the general enthusiasm to make it the winner here.

    3. I’m predicting L Morgan Lee in Featured Actress in a Musical. I believe Broadway will be the first community to honor the trans community. And … well, Patti rubs many people the wrong way.

    4. And I’m not going with Take Me Out in Revival of a Play.

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    FreemanGriffin
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    #1204973383

    I wish the Tony were tonight – the first Sunday in June has been the tradition for a very long time – instead of having to wait a whole more week! (; Just so glad we are getting an actual awards ceremony this year! I am especially looking forward to what Paradise Square submits for their number at the Tonys! (:

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    Jeffrey Kare
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    #1204973431

    I will predict some upsets, I always do.

    This year, I’m toying with the idea of going with:
    1. Hangmen for Best Play. I know this would be a shocker, but Tony voters owe Martin McDonagh, and The Lehman Trilogy is a dull show. (Full disclosure: I’ve seen the show in the U.K. but I doubt much has been changed.)

    2. I think A Strange Loop will take Direction of a Musical, as Tony voters have shown time and again that they prefer honoring original work in the directing categories. A Strange Loop isn’t as showy as Company, but I still expect the general enthusiasm to make it the winner here.

    3. I’m predicting L Morgan Lee in Featured Actress in a Musical. I believe Broadway will be the first community to honor the trans community. And … well, Patti rubs many people the wrong way.

    4. And I’m not going with Take Me Out in Revival of a Play.

    Here are my responses to those:

    1. Like The Inheritance last year, The Lehman Trilogy didn’t receive as much acclaim on Broadway as it did in the West End. Both of those shows fit the mold of a lot of the Best Play winners from this past decade. What would especially make Hangmen winning a shocker is the fact that it doesn’t have a directing nomination. The last Best Play winner that didn’t have a directing bid was All the Way back in 2014 (though the Best Direction of a Play category that year consisted of all revivals). Prior to that, you have to go all the way back to 2002 when The Goat, or Who is Sylvia? won up against Metamorphoses, which had a directing nomination (and win). That doesn’t mean Hangmen can’t prevail in Best Play, it just means that it has a very big hurdle to overcome.
    2. I too am currently predicting Stephen Brackett to win Best Direction of a Musical. Being at the helm of a brand new musical is much harder to pull off than reimagining a classic. Tony voters have gone for that more in recent years. Plus, it helps that Brackett is the only American in his category.
    3. L Morgan Lee winning would be reminiscent of Ari’el Stachel winning for The Band’s Visit back in 2018. Back then, a lot of us thought Best Featured Actor in a Musical was between Norbert Leo Butz for My Fair Lady and Gavin Lee for SpongeBob SquarePants. Though when Stachel won, that was pretty much the signal that The Band’s Visit was in for a really big night.
    4. What’s your reasoning for why you don’t think Take Me Out will win Best Revival of a Play and what do you think is winning there instead?
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    Jeffrey Kare
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    #1204973434

    I wish the Tony were tonight – the first Sunday in June has been the tradition for a very long time – instead of having to wait a whole more week! (; Just so glad we are getting an actual awards ceremony this year! I am especially looking forward to what Paradise Square submits for their number at the Tonys! (:

    They have taken place on the second Sunday in June before. The four most recent examples of that were 2016, 2017, 2018, and 2019.

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    adamunc
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    #1204973456

    I would not be at all surprised to see How I Learned to Drive take Revival of a Play, because under the recent rule change it would be a way to honor Paula Vogel.

    I’m still going with Marianne Elliott for Director of a Musical because it’s the front-runner for Revival, it’s centered on a directorial concept, and, most importantly, she has Sondheim’s absolute stamp of approval.

    Featured Actress is a lot tougher now than it was a few months ago. I’m sticking with Patti for now, but it’s getting to be a toss-up. Strong cases to be made for her and Lee.

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    rantinanton
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    #1204973662

    I think Paradise Square will have its opening number in its Tonys performance. For North Country I’m betting on “Like a Rolling Stone.”

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    Jeffrey Kare
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    #1204973895

    I think Paradise Square will have its opening number in its Tonys performance. For North Country I’m betting on “Like a Rolling Stone.”

    I think Paradise Square will have to at least work in ‘Let It Burn’ to show off Joaquina’s much talked about performance of that big solo number.

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